Post on 28-Dec-2015
transcript
PROFITABILITY OF PURDUE IMPROVED CROP STORAGE (PICS) BAGS FOR AFRICAN
COMMON BEAN PRODUCERS
Mike Jones, Corinne Alexander, and Jess Lowenberg-DeBoer
MAJOR COMMON BEAN STORAGE PESTS
A. obtectus, Z. subfasciatus Cowpea bruchids
Without grain protection, six month dry weight losses of 10-40% are common Kiula and Karel (1985)
How does this affect marketing producers wishing to store?
Source: (top) ethz.ch, (bottom) infonet-biovision.org,
MAJOR QUESTIONS
What economic benefit of PICS technology could exist for marketing common bean producers?
How would the profitability of common bean storage with PICS compare to other current methods?
COMMON BEAN STORAGE PROTECTANTS Songa and Rono (1998)
*Chemicals: Ex. Actellic Super *Solar Disinfestation: “Sunning and Sieving” (weekly)
Paul et al. (2009) *Botanicals
A. indica C. Ambrosioides
Dichotomous Earth: Keep Dry® Ash: S. and R. (1998) found much less effective *Hermetic?
Compare to cowpea losses until PICS data available, cite cowpea losses used in Moussa (2005)
COMMON BEAN HEDONIC PRICE FORMATION
(Weakly) link DWL to % Damaged through Mulungu (2006)
Common bean price discounts from Mishili et al. (2011) in Tanzania
A 2.3% price discount was found for every bruchid hole in 100 grain sample
Revenue Loss derived MOSTLY from quality loss and price discounts
DWL (%)
% Beans Damage
d*
% Revenue Loss
1.67 2.17 5.0
3.18 4.35 10.0
4.69 6.52 15.0
6.20 8.70 20.0
7.71 10.87 25.0
9.22 13.04 30.0*Conservative assumption of one hole per bean
TANZANIA: COMMON BEAN PRICE SEASONALITY
Source: FEWSNET
TANZANIA: COMMON BEAN PRICE SEASONALITY
Source: FEWSNET
COMMON BEAN PRICE SEASONALITY ACROSS EAST AFRICA
Percent Price Increase for High/Low Price Months
for Common Beans in Select East African Countries
Tanzania Kenya UgandaArusha 17.4% Kitui 16.8%
Lira 31.2%Dar es Salaam
21.1% Nairobi 20.1%
Dodoma
33.3% El Doret
27.5% Gulu 68.4%Mbeya 39.1%Songea 46.1%
Kisimu 33.5%Kamp
ala100%
Kigoma 58.7%
Source: FEWSNET (five-year average [nominal] monthly prices)
0.00 0.07 0.14 0.21 0.28 0.35 0.42 0.49 0.56 0.63 0.70 0.77 0.84 0.91 0.980%
20%40%60%80%
100%
Economic Threshold for Storage Profit
(Best-case Scenario: Perfect Protection- no weight or
value loss)8 months, OCC=0.25
PICS Bag, Cost= $1 PICS Bag, Cost= $2
Harvest Price/kg (USD)
Season
al P
rice I
ncre
ase (
%)
Opportunity Cost of Capital (OCC)
CASE STUDY: TANZANIA
Largest common bean producing country in East Africa
Focus on (green) production areas Kigoma Mbeya Songea Arusha
RETURNS TO VARIOUS METHODS: MBEYA Following losses from Songa and Rono
(1998), PICS should be competitive with chemical and solar methods.
Use of bag for second year is important
Mbeya Songea Kigoma$0.00
$2.00
$4.00
$6.00
$8.00
$10.00
$12.00
$14.00
$16.00
$18.00
5.95 5.90
14.92
7.35 7.30
16.33
Tanzanian Gains on Storage for Six Months
(OCC 25%)
PICS 1PICS 2
Un
co
rre
cte
d U
SD
WAY FORWARD
Need to incorporate incoming PICS data from current trials- Help link science and economics! Dry weight loss Holes in 100 grains/ % Beans Damaged
Quality is import and probably varies by region Room for economic research in price discounts
Understand greater impact of Opportunity Cost and credit constraints Will surely affect adoption for high-value beans Price seasonality must compensate!