Post on 07-Aug-2019
transcript
Milk Market Situation
Brussels, 21 March 2019
21 March 2019
!!! Data from some Member States are confidential and are NOT included in this table !!!
+0.9%+0.2%
-1.5%
-5.1%
-1.2%
-3.7%-2.7%
+0.5%+0.3%
- 8%
- 6%
- 4%
- 2%
+ 0%
+ 2%
+ 4%
EU Productions (Jan-Dec 2018 compared to Jan-Dec 2017)
21 March 2019
-5.0% to -2.8%
-2.8% to -1.5%
-1.5% to -0.7%
-0.7% to 0.0%
0.0% to +1.0%
+1.0% to +2.5%
+2.5% to +4.4%
+4.4% to +10.0%
n/a+4.1
+9.5
+2.4
+2.5
+1.7
+2.9
+4.4
+1.0+1.4
-0.2
+0.9
+5.6
-4.0
-2.6
+5.5
+0.3
-1.5
-2.9
-0.5
+2.6
+0.7
+7.9
-1.4
-0.9
-0.5
-2.0
+0.2
Source : MS' Communications to Eurostat, FEGA, AGEA, Reg.479/2010.1(a)1
-4.9
DE, EL, HR, CY and SE figures based on MS notifications to DG AGRI - estimation for IT
21 March 2019
10000
11000
12000
13000
14000
15000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
10
00
To
nn
es
EU - Cows' milk collected
2015
2016
2017
2018
Jan-Dec 2018/17 : +0.9%
Last update : Jan-DecSource : Estat - Newcronos
Jan-Dec 2018/17 : + 0.9%
21 March 2019
35.0
33.0
20
22
24
26
28
30
32
34
36
38
40
42
44
46
48
50
Jan 0
1
Jan 0
2
Jan 0
3
Jan 0
4
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
Jan 1
9
EUR/100 kgEU Raw Milk Prices Evolution (up to January 2019)
Weighted EU Average (real fat content)
EU Milk Equiv. Price (based on SMP and Butter prices)
Source : MS’ communications under Reg. (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a)
* : provisional figures
58.1
48.2
39.5
38.9
38.3
38.3
36.3
36.0
36.0
35.5
35.0
35.0
34.7
34.3
34.2
34.0
33.9
33.3
32.7
32.6
32.5
32.0
31.7
31.5
31.1
31.1
30.9
30.6
30.2
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
CY MT IT GR FI AT NL FR SE DE EU LU CZ IE DK HR BE SK UK SI PL ES EE RO PT HU BG LT LV
in E
UR
/1
00
kg
E U M I L K P R I C E S
Milk price 2018
Milk price 2019
Source : Member States (Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 12(a) - Annex II.4(a))
( Jan 2019 vs Jan 2018 )
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 479//2010
NB: The above national price averages are of mixed nature, some relate to standardised milk,
others to milk with real fat and protein content, pending harmonisation under reg. 479/2010
21 March 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
100
150
200
250
300
350Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU SMP Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009
Latest price : 191 EUR/100kg
Evolution compared to same period last year : +44%
21 March 2019
199198 197 194
191
182
178
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
BE DE NL CZ EU Avg. SK PL
in E
UR/1
00 kg
EU S.M.P. Prices (up to 10.03.2019)
I.P. : 169.8
Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7
21 March 2019
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU BUTTER Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019 IP 2009
Evolution compared to same period last year : -12%
Latest price : 425 EUR/100kg
21 March 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
575
493
472
425413 412 407
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
SK CZ EE EU Avg. BE PL NL
EU
R/1
00 k
g
EU BUTTER Prices (up to 10.03.2019)
Source : Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7
I.P. = 221.75
21 March 2019
425
191
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan 03 Jan 04 Jan 05 Jan 06 Jan 07 Jan 08 Jan 09 Jan 10 Jan 11 Jan 12 Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Jan 16 Jan 17 Jan 18 Jan 19
in E
UR/100 k
g
.
EU Quotations of Butter and SMP(EU average based on MS communication and weighted by production)
Butter Intervention buying in price SMP Intervention buying in price
BUTTER prices SMP prices
Source: MS’ communications under reg. 562/2005 and 479/2010
21 March 2019
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
550
600
650
700
Jan 0
3
Jan 0
4
Jan 0
5
Jan 0
6
Jan 0
7
Jan 0
8
Jan 0
9
Jan 1
0
Jan 1
1
Jan 1
2
Jan 1
3
Jan 1
4
Jan 1
5
Jan 1
6
Jan 1
7
Jan 1
8
Jan 1
9
in E
UR/1
00 k
g
EU Dairy Quotations
(EU Average Prices based on MS communication and weighted by production)
BUTTER
SMP
WMP
CHEDDAR
Source: Regulation (EU) No 2017/1185 Article 11 - Annex I.7
21 March 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
150
200
250
300
350
400
450Ja
n
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU WMP Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : +10%
Latest price : 287 EUR/100kg
21 March 2019
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
21 March 2019
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU CHEDDAR Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : +1%
Latest price : 327 EUR/100kg
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/100 k
g
Weekly EU EDAM Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : +9%
Latest price : 304 EUR/100kg
Source: MS’ communications under Regs. 562/2005 and 479/2010
21 March 2019
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
EU
R/1
00 k
g
Weekly EU WheyPowder Prices
2016 2017 2018 2019
Evolution compared to same period last year : +24%
Latest price : 86 EUR/100kg
21 March 2019
- 100 000
- 75 000
- 50 000
- 25 000
0
25 000
50 000
75 000
100 000
125 000
150 000
175 000
200 000
225 000
250 000
275 000
300 000
325 000
350 000
375 000
400 000
Qu
anti
ty in
to
nne
s
Public SMP Intervention scheme (2017-2018)Buying-in quantity & stocks
Quantities In (2019) Quantities Out (2019) Quantity offered (2019)
Stocks level end of month (2019) Stocks level end of month (2018)
103 977
21 March 2019
1.1295
EUR/USD
21 March 2019
2 638
2 1512 176
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000O
ct 1
1
Jan 1
2
Apr
12
Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of SMP
Avg Oceania SMP quotation
Avg EU SMP internal Price
Avg US SMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
21 March 2019
3 025
3 273
3 560
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000O
ct 1
1
Jan 1
2
Apr
12
Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of WMP
Avg Oceania WMP quotation
Avg EU WMP internal Price
Avg US WMP quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
21 March 2019
4 425
4 9885 002
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
6 500
7 000
7 500
8 000
8 500
Oct 1
1
Jan 1
2
Apr
12
Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Butter
Avg Oceania Butter quotation
Avg EU Butter internal Price
Avg US Butter quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
21 March 2019
3 700
3 5443 617
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
4 000
4 500
5 000
5 500
6 000
Oct 1
1
Jan 1
2
Apr
12
Jul 12
Oct 1
2
Jan 1
3
Apr
13
Jul 13
Oct 1
3
Jan 1
4
Apr
14
Jul 14
Oct 1
4
Jan 1
5
Apr
15
Jul 15
Oct 1
5
Jan 1
6
Apr
16
Jul 16
Oct 1
6
Jan 1
7
Apr
17
Jul 17
Oct 1
7
Jan 1
8
Apr
18
Jul 18
Oct 1
8
Jan 1
9
Prices in U
SD
/tonne
EU/US/Oceania Quotations of Cheddar
Avg OceaniaCheddar quotation
Avg EU Cheddar internal Price
Avg US Cheddar quotation
Source: MS’ communications under Reg. 2017/1185 & USDA market news
21 March 2019
35
50
17
13
46
3n/a
2n/a
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2018 2019
10
00
to
nn
es
Butter & ButteroilExports
New Zealand (up to Jan)
EU-28 (up to Jan)
Belarus (up to Jan)
United States (no data 2019)
Ukraine (no data 2019)
63
68
28 2827
n/a
15
19
11 12
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2018 2019
10
00
to
nn
es
Cheese Exports
EU-28 (up to Jan)
New Zealand (up to Jan)
United States (no data 2019)
Belarus (up to Jan)
Australia (up to Jan)
21 March 2019
57
87
50
n/a
4448
10
19
811
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
2018 2019
1000
ton
nes
S.M.P. Exports
EU-28 (up to Jan)
United States (no data 2019)
New Zealand (up to Jan)
Australia (up to Jan)
Belarus (up to Jan)
150
177
31 27
8 8712
5 2
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2018 2019
1000
ton
nes
W.M.P. Exports
New Zealand (up to Jan)
EU-28 (up to Jan)
Argentina (up to Jan)
Uruguay (up to Jan)
Australia (up to Jan)
21 March 2019
EU-28 Exports (1/2)
Source : Eurostat (COMEXT)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
102 102
120
135
162
137128
1000 Tonnes
BUTTER exports
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 15%
BUTTER exports
20182019
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
520
407
648695
579
780822
1000 TonnesSMP exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 53%
SMP exports
20182019
21 March 2019
EU-28 Exports (2/2)
660
680
700
720
740
760
780
800
820
840
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
768
786
721 719
799
829 832
1000 Tonnes
CHEESE exports
300
400
500
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
386374
390401
382393
334
1000 TonnesWMP exports
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : + 8%
CHEESE exports
2018
2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 exports compared to 2018 : - 10%
WMP exports
2018
2019
21 March 2019
22 22
17
n/a
14 1413
n/a
11 11
0
5
10
15
20
25
2 018 2 019
10
00
to
nn
es
Cheese Imports
Japan (up to Jan)
Russia (no data 2019)
China (up to Jan)
United States (no data 2019)
South Korea (up to Jan)
17
14
6
n/a
3.83.43.7
0.0
3.3
0.00
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2 018 2 019
1000
ton
nes
Butter & ButteroilImports
China (up to Jan)
Russia (no data 2019)
Australia (up to Jan)
Egypt (no data 2019)
United States (no data 2019)
21 March 2019
139
183
27
n/a
9 98 56n/a
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
2 018 2 019
1000
ton
nes
W.M.P.Imports
China (up to Jan)
Algeria (no data 2019)
Hong Kong (up to Jan)
Sri Lanka (up to Jan)
Malaysia (no data 2019)
46
58
23
n/a
21
n/a
11
n/a
10
n/a0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
2 018 2 019
1000
ton
nes
S.M.P. Imports
China (up to Jan)
Mexico (no data 2019)
Algeria (no data 2019)
Indonesia (no data 2019)
Egypt (no data 2019)
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 1/2)
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
48 52
80 7182
92113
1000 Tonnes
China
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 15%
2018
2016
2019
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
68
136 139
96 105 9886
1000 Tonnes
Russia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes #VALUE!
2018
2019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Butter + Butteroil 2/2)
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
21 21 23 21 29 34 40
1000 Tonnes
Australia
0
25
50
75
100
125
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
18 14 2240 47 44
57
1000 Tonnes
United States
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 9%
20182019
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 9%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
20162019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. - 1/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
236198 203
259 286331
360
1000 Tonnes
Mexico
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes#VALUE!
2018
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
168
235 253
200 184
247 280
1000 Tonnes
China
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : + 25%
2018
2017
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : + 25%2019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (S.M.P. – 2/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
136155 146 145 159 147 160
1000 Tonnes
Indonesia
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2014
2016
2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
1000 tonnes
2009
2010
0
50
100
150
200
250
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
106 113 95 101
185154 159
1000 Tonnes
Philippines
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 1/2)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
406
619671
347420 470 521
1000 Tonnes
China
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : + 31%
2018
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
188142
204 224 224262
150
1000 Tonnes
Algeria
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2017 2019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (W.M.P. 2/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
71 59 60 72 85 85 87
1000 Tonnes
Sri Lanka
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
64 74 81 75 86 87 104
1000 Tonnes
Hong Kong
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 35%
2018
2019
0
5
10
15
20
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnesJan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 6%
2018
2013 2016
Jan 2019 compared to 2018 : - 6%
2019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 1/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
235 236 232 249 258 273 286
1000 Tonnes
Japan
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 compared to 2018: + 1%
2018
2016 2017
2019
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
316440
321
209 223 226267
1000 Tonnes
Russia
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2019
21 March 2019
Main Dairy Importers (Cheese – 2/2)
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
78 85 97 112 110 125 124
1000 Tonnes
South Korea
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
154 148 165200 205 183 176
1000 Tonnes
United States
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
Jan 2019 compared to 2018: - 4%
2018
2019
0
5
10
15
20
25
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
1000 tonnes
2018
2019
21 March 2019
7 000
7 200
7 400
7 600
7 800
8 000
8 200
8 400
8 600
8 800Jan
Fe
b
Ma
r
Apr
Ma
y
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
in 1
000 t
on
ne
s
U.S. milk production
2015
2016
2017
2018
Source:USDA
Jan-Dec 2018 vs 2017 : + 0.9% (real monthly production)
21 March 2019
Source: Dairy Australia
500
600
700
800
900
1 000
1 100
1 200
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
Ju
n
in 1
000 t
on
ne
s
Jul-Dec 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : - 5.1%
Australian milk production
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
21 March 2019
Source: DCANZ - Fonterra
0
500
1 000
1 500
2 000
2 500
3 000
3 500
Ju
n
Ju
l
Au
g
Sep
Oc
t
No
v
Dec
Ja
n
Fe
b
Ma
r
Ap
r
Ma
y
in 1
000 t
on
ne
s
.
Jun-Dec 2018/19 compared to 2017/18 : + 4.4%
NZ milk production
2015/16
2016/17
2017/18
2018/19
21 March 2019
GDT Auction results
Average price (USD/MT, FAS)
Event 2315 March 2019
+3.3%
$3 309
Event 2315 March 2019
+3.3%
$3 309
Butter
+3.7%$ 4 657
Butter MilkPowder
+11.0$ 3 480
Cheddar
+6.0%$ 3 888
Anhydrous Milk Fat
+3.9%$ 5 837
Butter
+3.7%$ 4 657
Butter MilkPowder
+11.0$ 3 480
Cheddar
+6.0%$ 3 888
Lactose
+0.6%$ 1 009
Rennet Casein
-0.1%$ 5 649
Skim MilkPowder
-4.3%$ 2 462
Lactose
+0.6%$ 1 009
Rennet Casein
-0.1%$ 5 649
Skim MilkPowder
-4.3%$ 2 462
Whole MilkPowder
+6.0%$ 3 186