Post on 01-Jul-2015
transcript
April 2014
Slide 1
Mobilizing California’s Electorate: What the Polls (and Pols) say
April 2014
April 2014
Slide 2
Overview of the State
April 2014
Slide 3
California Direction Over Time
20% 30% 39% 43% 45%
69%
61% 53% 48% 48%
11% 8%
8% 9% 7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% Sep. 2010 Sep. 2011 Oct. 2012 Sep. 2013 Mar. 2014
Right Direction Wrong Track Don't Know
* Data among all adults from PPIC state polls
-49
-31 -14 -5 -3
April 2014
Slide 4
Approval of Governor Brown Over Time
45%
42%
49% 52%
35%
47%
39% 35%
20%
11% 12% 13%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% Sep. 2011 Sep. 2012 Sep. 2013 Mar. 2014
Approve Disapprove Don't Know
* Likely voter data from PPIC state polls
+10 -5 +10
+17
April 2014
Slide 5
Approval of California Legislature Over Time
16% 26% 28% 38%
36%
75% 56% 55% 45% 45%
9%
18% 17% 17% 19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80% Sep. 2010 Sep. 2011 Oct. 2012 Sep. 2013 Mar. 2014
Approve Disapprove Don't Know
* Data from PPIC state polls
-59 -30 -27
-7 -9
April 2014
Slide 6
Most Important Issues to California Voters: An “Environmental” Issue – Water – Ranks 2nd
4%
4%
5%
7%
7%
15%
32%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35%
State budget, defecit, taxes
Crime, gangs, drugs
Health care, health reform, Obamacare
Immigration/ illegal immigration
Education/schools/teachers
Water, drought
Jobs/economy
* Data from PPIC March 2014 state poll
First, thinking about the state as a whole, what do you think is the most important issue facing people in California today?
April 2014
Slide 7
Latinos and the Environment*
* Data from Tulchin Research poll conducted in September 2012
April 2014
Slide 8
Strong Support Among Latinos for Renewable Energy, Conservation and Efficiency; Coal and Offshore-oil Drilling Much Less Popular
Now I am going to read you some types of energy sources. Please tell me whether you support or oppose getting energy from that source.
31% 20% 19%
15%
48%
67%
68%
65%
51% 41%
44% 44%
6% 90%
2% 90%
5% 91%
3% 96%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 120%
+86
Strongly Support Total Support Total Oppose Strongly Oppose
Renewable energy sources like solar and wind power
Natural gas
Energy efficiency
Energy Conservation
Coal
+84
+88
+93
0
Drilling for oil off the California coast - 10
Support - Oppose
April 2014
Slide 9
Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: We can protect the environment and create jobs at the same time.
Latino Voters Firmly Believe We Can Protect the Environment AND Create Jobs at the Same Time
1%
3%
5%
21%
69%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%
Don't Know
Strongly disagree
Somewhat disagree
Somewhat agree
Strongly agree
Agree - Disagree +82
Total Agree: 90%
Total Disagree:
8%
April 2014
Slide 10
Toxic Air and Water Pollution Top Environmental Concerns Among Latinos
Now I am going to read you some environmental concerns facing California that people have. For each one, please tell whether you think the issue is an extremely serious problem, very serious problem,
somewhat serious, or not too serious of a problem.
Very Serious Total Serious
29%
31%
34%
37%
30%
43%
44%
43%
52%
54%
59%
64%
65%
66%
68%
73%
78%
80%
81%
85%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
Protecting endangered species
Global warming
Conserving our fish and wildlife habitats
Dependence on foreign oil
Air pollution
Carbon pollution that causes global warming
Pollution threatening your family's health and well being
Water pollution
Toxic chemicals getting into drinking water, food, and everyday products
Toxic pollution that causes asthma, lung disease and cancer
April 2014
Slide 11
Political Dynamics of Transit and
Transportation
April 2014
Slide 12
As Baby Boomers Age, Many Are Moving Into Urban Core and Transit-Friendly Areas
• A 2012 study from the Urban Land Institute (ULI) finds that, while the majority of older Americans want to age in their current homes, many who are able to move are choosing urban locations – both cities and suburban “town centers” – where they can be close to grown children, friends, work, public transportation, and health care.
April 2014
Slide 13
7,900
10,300
0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000
Vehicle-miles driven per capita by young people ages 16-34 in 2009
Vehicle-miles driven per capita by young people ages 16-34 in 2001
While Generation X (Age 35-49) And Boomers (Age 50-65) Have Seen Small Drops In Car Usage, Generation Y Drives Significantly Less.
Between 2001 and 2009, the average number of vehicle-miles traveled by young people (16 to 34-year-olds) decreased from 10,300 miles to 7,900 miles per capita—a drop of 23 percent.
-23%
* Data from WISPERG Foundation study, 2012
April 2014
Slide 14
Generation Y Workers Like To Live Near Work Or Take Transit: Examples Include Google Buses In San Francisco And An Overall Trend In Increased Mass Transit Ridership Among Young People
April 2014
Slide 15
Even Los Angeles Is Focusing on Transit-Oriented Development
• “Here’s how it works. We’ll saturate your street with services. We’ll make your street accessible to pedestrians, wheelchairs, strollers and bicycles–not just cars.
We’ll create an environment where new neighborhood
businesses can flourish. We’ll pave the streets and make them green streets — clean and lush with plant life, local art, and people-focused plazas.”
- Mayor Eric Garcetti, Los Angeles (State of the City Address
April, 2014)
April 2014
Slide 16
The Political Challenges Facing Transit Advocates • Republican Majority in Congress not supportive of mass transit
• House Republicans have put public transportation in their budgetary crosshairs and have cut funding for it
• The 2013 House Republican transportation and housing bill aimed to cut transpiration funding by 15% – approximately $15.3 billion dollars
• BART strike – The strike shut down a successful and popular transit system that impacts an entire region • The good news is people in the Bay Area are acutely aware of how important
BART is to the broader region • Prolonged labor disputes can sour public perception of mass transit • There is a long-term potential for conflict between public transportation
unions and the white collar workers their agencies serve – strong public opposition to the strike
• High-speed rail – a popular concept meets the difficult reality of changing
California’s car culture • There is a common pattern in these large transportation projects – strong
initial support, but opposition rises prior to the project’s construction • There is a chance for public support to rebound once project construction
commences or is completed
April 2014
Slide 17
For More Information About This Research, Contact:
Ben Tulchin (415) 874-7441
ben@tulchinresearch.com www.tulchinresearch.com
182 Second Street, Suite 400
San Francisco, CA 94105
Follow us on Facebook and Twitter
www.facebook.com/TulchinR www.twitter.com/TulchinResearch
April 2014
Slide 18
Mobilizing California’s Electorate: What the Polls (and Pols) say
April 2014
Why 2016? • Likely higher presidential voter turnout.
• Likely better economy.
• Measure R Transit projects delivery: 3 projects opened, 3 projects under construction.
• More time to build county consensus on program.
• More time to prepare & run campaign.
• Election Day voter registration will start & could be the margin of victory.
• Likely higher presidential voter turnout.
• Likely better economy.
• Measure R Transit projects delivery: 3 projects opened, 3 projects under construction.
• More time to build county consensus on program.
• More time to prepare & run campaign.
• Election Day voter registration will start & could be the margin of victory.
• Complete and extend all Measure R rail transit projects.
• Start new rail lines all over the county.
• Set aside 3% for First mile / Last mile infrastructure.
• Create small business & community mitigation program.
• Retrofit current lines to improve access and safety.
• Street Resurfacing (cool pavement) + signal synchronization + landscaping + street amenities
• Complete Streets (transit + bike + pedestrian)
• Enhanced Metro Rapid, better safer bus stops with real time digital information
• Incentives for new mixed-use and mixed-income residential developments along boulevards to build transit user base
• Transition to bus-only lanes where appropriate
• To keep transit fares low while increasing service and ridership
• For matching funds for specialized transit passes for students, residents of new affordable in transit priority zones and others
• Create express service on high demand lines
• Improve regional airport connectivity
• Leverage high speed rail to improve connectivity
• Disentangle Metrolink from freight tracks
• Facilitate entry of zero/near zero emissions technologies and fueling
/charging systems
• Create clean truck-only corridors
• Disentangle commuter rail with grade separations and double tracking
• Create local jobs with “Cargo-Oriented Development”
Create a matching fund for local Safe Routes to School program and
broader bicycle/pedestrian infrastructure.
Plus embed bike/pedestrian in:
• Grand Boulevards program
• First mile/last mile investments near new stations
Funds for local transportation priorities.
Incentives :
• For Grand Boulevards program
• For First mile/last mile improvements