Moderation Doesnt Pay. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Moderation...

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Moderation Doesn’t Pay

Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave

Moderation Doesn’t Pay

The State of Pennsylvania The Candidates The Campaign The Results

The State of Pennsylvania

Race/Ethnicity 83.8% White 10.4% Black 2.4% Asian 4.7% Hispanic

Occupation 39.4% Blue Collar

60.6% White Collar

Median Income $49.7k in state $51.4k in U.S.

Partisanship D+2, PVI

’08 Presidential Vote

Obama, +10.4%

The Incumbent: Democrat Arlen Specter

Occupation Attorney

Political Experience

Candidate for Governor Pennsylvania, 1978

Candidate for U.S. Senate, 1976

District Attorney, 1966-1974

First Elected 1981

Committees Appropriations Environment and Public

Works Judiciary (former chair) Veterans Affairs (former

chair) Select Committee on

Intelligence (former chair)

Table 12.1 Congressional Vote Scores for Arlen Specter, 1981–2010

The Challenger: Republican Pat Toomey

Occupation Business Executive

House of Representatives, 1999-2005

Table 12.2 Congressional Vote Scores for Pat Toomey, 1999–2004

The Challenger: Democrat Joseph Sestak

Occupation Vice Admiral, U.S. Navy

House of Representatives, 2007-11

Table 12.3 Congressional Vote Scores for Joe Sestak, 2007–2010

Table 12.5 Campaign Finance for Pennsylvania Senate Campaigns, 2004–2010

Table 12.6 Campaign Activity by Outside Groups, 2010

The Campaign: The Polls

July September Late October0

Pat Toomey Joe Sestak

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Protect PA”

NOTE: Internet access required.

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Sad TV”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Doctor”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Clear Choice”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Jobs”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Lifelong Democrat”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “$1Trillion”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “One Extreme Party”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Death Tax”

The Campaign: Toomey’s “Cap and Trade”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “The Switch”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Meet Joe”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Not on Our Side”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Seniors Speak Out”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Belle”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Security”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Zero”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Timeline”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “The Difference”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Independent”

The Campaign: Sestak’s “Leading”

The Campaign: Crossroads GPS’s “Add Up”

The Campaign: Americans for Tax Reform’s “Sestak Energy Prices”

The Campaign: DSCC’s “Toomey Moved to China”

The Campaign: DSCC’s “Wall Street’s Guy”

The Campaign: DSCC’s “Wall Street Ties”

The Campaign: DSCC’s “Modernizing and Growing”

The Campaign: DSCC’s “Corning”

The Campaign: AFLCIO ad criticizing the Chamber of Commerce

The Campaign: Vote Vets’ “Trained”

The Campaign: US Chamber of Commerce’s “Card Check”

The Campaign: US Chamber of Commerce’s “100% Pelosi”

The Campaign: NRSC’s “Status Quo Joe”

The Campaign: NRSC using Sestak’s ads against him

The Campaign: NRA’s “You Are the Problem”

The Campaign: Club for Growth’s “Sestak’s Spending”

The Campaign: Club for Growth saying Sestak = Pelosi, Reid and Obama

The Campaign: RCJ’s “Sestak Out of Touch”

The Campaign: DNC’s “He Doesn’t Support Us”

The Campaign: LCV’s “Toomey Drilling”

The Campaign: MoveOn’s “Our Ad”

Table 12.4 Pennsylvania Statewide Election Results, 2010

Moderation Doesnt Pay. Cases in Congressional Campaigns, Second Edition: Riding the Wave Moderation...

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