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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Policies to Meet the Food Needs of a Growing World
Bryan DierlamCargill, Director, Government Affairs
April 17, 2013Louisville, Kentucky
April 10, 2023
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Key Trends
Volatility
Trade
Protein Consumption
Population Growth
Income Growth
Biofuels
Health & Nutrition
Sustainability
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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
GLOBAL FOOD PRODUCTION VS. PRICE(production of grain, rice, major oilseeds, PO, FSHM vs. corn/soybean/wheat futures price index)
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
April 10, 2023
Percentage change in production
Percentage change in price
Source: USDA
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
world food flows(grains, rice, oilseeds, meals, oils, feed equivalent of meat – net interregional in mmt)
N Amer S Amer Australia E Eur/FSU C Amer W Euro Asia MidEaAfr-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
exporters: more land than people
importers: more people than land
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
April 10, 2023
More people, more income, bigger appetites
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
000 USD income per capita – 1997$
mil population (grey bars) kg / cap / year (lines)
grain
meat
sugar/sweeteners
vegoil
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
The Effects of Higher Disposable IncomeExample - Chinese Meat Consumption grew 6-fold in 30 years
Meat consumption – 1981(Pork, Broiler, Beef)
China11%
USA22%
Rest of the World
67%
Meat consumption – 2011(Pork, Broiler, beef)
China29%
USA14%
Rest of the World57%
April 10, 2023
108 Mln Tons
237 Mln Tons
Source: USDA
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
April 10, 2023
Biofuels Volumes – a Major Shift
• Grain to ethanol
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2001 2006 2011
Million Metric Tons
• Vegoil to biodiesel
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
28
2001 2006 2011
Million Metric Tons
~9% of world grain market
~14% of world vegoil market
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Populations are expanding where it is most difficult to grow food
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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Sustainability
9
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Cargill Supply Chains
10
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
11
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
12
Cargill Suppy Chains
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Cargill Supply Chains
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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Policy Opportunities and Challenges
Honor Comparative Advantage
Enable Open Markets
Invest in Infrastructure
Agricultural Productivity
Harmonization of Standards
Support Smallholder Farm/Property Rights
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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE
DAVID RICARDO
The world will always raise the most food the most economically if every
farmer plants the right crop for the soil and climate, and then trades with
others.
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
16
Comparative Advantage &
Trade
Policy Opportunities in GREENPolicy Challenges in RED
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
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Open Markets, Price Discovery,
Risk Management
Disrupted Market Signals
Political, Fiscal & Monetary Risk Factors
Regulatory Barriers
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
18
Transportation Goods to
Market
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
April 10, 2023
Genetic improvements and fertilizer intensification drive supply expansion thru yield -- acreage has not been a significant supply drive until recently
19751978
19811984
19871990
19931996
19992002
20052008
201190
100110120130140150160170180190200210
Production
Yield
Area
Key driver of production growth: yield increase
Index (1975=100)
Source: USDA
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
20
Biotechnology &
Innovation
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Export Disaster - Don’t Do This!
Plants (LT30) (LT30) (Bovine EV) (LT30) (LT30) Open 7/10/08 (Bovine EV) (Bovine EV) (LT30) (LT30)
Approved U.A.E. Chile Colombia Dominican El Salvador Hong Kong Japan Korea Lebanon Mexico Panama Peru Russia Singapore St. Lucia Taiwan Thailand Ukraine Vietnam
As of 8/18/06 As of 4/30/10 10/1/2008
Dodge City, 86K, Millard Dodge N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y
10/1/2008 Relisted 11/17/08 Friona, 86E N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y
As of 4/8/08 Relisted 7/12/07
Ft. Morgan, 86R N Y N Y Y N Y Y Y Y N N Y N Y Y N Y Y
As of 9/07
Plainview, 86H N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y N N Y Y N Y Y
Relisted 11/25/08
Schuyler, 86M N Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y N Y Y Y Y Y
Fresno, 354
Wyalusing, 9400
As of 7/12/07
Allow Canadian YES NO-direct slau YES YES YES YES-AV YES YES YES YES NO-direct slau NO-direct slau NO YES YES YES YES YES
Cattle? NO-A40 100 Days in U.S. 100 days for bone-in
Age Requirement <30 None <30 <30 <30 <21 <30 <30 <30 None None <30 <30 <30 <30 <30 <30 <30
General Product Boneless >30, boneless Beef prods Boneless Boneless Boneless, Boneless Boneless Boneless, >30, boneless >30, boneless Boneless & Boneless Boneless Boneless, Boneless Boneless, Boneless,
Requirements Beef Only FTB OK Offals Beef Only Beef Only Bone-in & Bone-in & Bone-in Bone-in & FTB OK FTB OK Bone-in Beef Only Beef Only Bone-in as Beef Only Bone-in Bone-in
Tongues (no Offals Offals (no of 11/2/09, Offals
<30, boneless Hanging headmeat) No >30s intestines,) <30, boneless <30, boneless No GB must be <30
& bone-in Tender is OK for the QSA No AMR & bone-in & bone-in CDN 100 days
U.S. Trim OK per the QSA
No Diaphram
Special Halal Tallow is not No AMR No Offals, No Mex 7/10/2008 Prod must be Boneless We are not We are not Cannot No Mex No Offals Effecitve No AMR No AMR
Considerations Slaughter part of the EV No AMR Cattle for Slau Date rec'd w/in 180 Beef from listed for >30s listed for >30s produce until cattle for 4/1/10 No Offals
Only Maintain direct Slau of slaughter Canada is on-site audit direct slau certain offals after 7/15/10
CMS not traceback of Mex cattle Must be on eligible OK to ship kill date
listed for >30s cattle to prod Begin w/ do not need vessel w/in 30 (No Cdn No Imported
No Trim 7/27/06 Slau 100 days in US days of cert trim) Beef Mex 100 days
Allow GB? N Y Y Y N N N Y N Y Y N N Y N N Y Y
Require SOV? Y Y N Y Y Y N Y N Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y Y
Specific Offals None Aorta None None None, incl Tongue-all Abomasum None Cheekmeat Aorta Heart None None Tendon None Aorta None
(Eligible) Backstrap Diaphram & Abomasum Heart Backstrap Liver Tongue Backstrap as of 9/14/10
Cheekmeat Outside Skirt 86R Only Kidney Cheekmeat Tongue Cheekmeat
Heart Livers, Liver Heart Heart
Kidney Tendons Omasum Kidney Kidney
Liver 86K, M, R Oxlips Liver Liver
Omasum Only Tongue Omasum Omasum
Oxlips Offals Tripe Oxlips Oxlips
Tendon be written in Trimmings Tendon Tendon
Tongue the EV and Tongue Tongue
Tripe approved by Tripe Tripe
AMS
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Export vs. Domestic Market$60+ advantage/head on 7 products
ProductValue in Export
Market $ Value/# Lb/Hd $/HD/Export
Value in DomesticMarket $ Value #/hd $/HD/US
Short Ribs Korea $3.00 10 $30.00 US/Canada $ 0.80 10 $ 8.00
Navels Japan $1.60 20 $32.00 US/Canada $ 0.80 20 $ 16.00
Finger Meat Korea $2.50 1 $2.50 US/Canada $ 0.80 1 $ 0.80
Digital Muscle Taiwan $2.25 1 $2.25 US/Canada $ 1.50 1 $ 1.50
Liver Russia/Egypt $0.60 13 $7.80 US/Canada $ 0.12 13 $ 1.56
Oxliips Mexico $1.40 1.5 $2.10 US/Canada $ 0.15 1.5 $ 0.23
Tongue Japan $5.00 3 $15.00 US/Canada $ 0.10 3 $ 0.30
$91.65 $ 28.39
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
23
Harmonization
National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
Property Rights
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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.
The Values Question
• Values vs. Technology• Tin vs. Food• Managing the Dichotomy• Anonymity vs. “Story Food”• Knowing Your Farmer and Agricultural Values• Improve our Messaging—Who do we talk to?
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National Institute for Animal Agriculture 2013
© Copyright Cargill, Incorporated 2012. All rights reserved.