+National and Global Security

Can Aging Nations Defend Themselves and Preserve National Order

+Why Aging Matters to National Security:

  The world has entered a phase of unprecedented demographic transformation.

  This transformation is both certain and lasting. There is no evidence that it will subside in the short term.

  All countries will not be affected equally. Regions of the world will grow more unalike than they are today.

  In the industrialized world the transformation will have dramatic social, economic, and political consequences. The traditional “great powers” may not be able security in light of the new environment.

For more info see

+The Aging Race:

+How will the US fare?

+Will the Revolution be Televised?

The changes that result from this demographic shift will be visible primarily in three areas:

  Size: Working-age population will drop which could precipitate a dip in GDP below historical trends or global rates. Prolonged stagnation or decline in GDP necessarily affects discretionary spending (i.e. Defense Department Budget Allocation)

  Economy: Older employees may be less mobile and adaptable, innovation and entrepreneurship may decline, and savings and investment rates may fall. We may see rising public deficits and overall economic impairment.

  Psychology: Older societies may be more conservative and risk adverse. Locking in public spending at the expense of new priorities.

+Should I buy Gold and Guns before it’s too late?

The end result of these shifts will lead to instability in some regions and economic decline in others. If the situation is managed using forward thinking immigration policy and strategic partnerships between the public-private sector the outlook need not look so bleak. The negative effects for developed nations may include:   Developed world population and % GDP will decline as a share of

global totals. This will necessarily precipitate a decline in overall influence.

  Young workers will be more scare and security forces will be stretched to find recruits. The developed world will face a diminished role in global policing.

Who could fill the power vacuum?

+Reversal of Fortune?

  Some nations in the developing world will be propelled towards greater prosperity and stability – they will cash in their “demographic dividends” and potentially increase national savings, improve public services, and stabilize fertility rates.

The US is the only G8 nation whose Population level and GDP remain relatively stable through 2050.

+Guns or Wheelchairs:

  Countries with robust public funded social services may soon be forced to ask themselves, “do we but military hardware or nursing home beds?”

  In the absence of a shift in migration policies, European militaries, facing budget constraints, will face growing manpower shortages—raising questions about their future role in peace operations and in NATO military missions.

  The value of a nation as a military ally declines as its population ages and its military budget contracts.

+Critical Questions:

  Will the US be called on to take an even more prominent role in global security as other prominent industrial powers enter a phase of population decline?

  How will developing nations with burgeoning youth populations, high poverty rates, and chronic unemployment cope?

  As immigration fills the workplace void within aging societies create are we at risk for heightened xenophobia and ethnic conflict?

+Policy Options: Demographic

  Help families balance jobs and children: Legal right to maternity/paternity leave, subsidized child care etc.

  Reward families for having children: Currently underway in Russia and France. Results appear to mixed and inconclusive thus far.

  Improve economic prospects of young families: Reforms aimed at eliminating two-tier labor markets (such as those that currently exist in France and Spain).

  Leverage Immigration: Offer courses to aid immigrants in cultural assimilation and/or acclimation. This will reduce political and ethnic backlash

+Policy Options: Economic

  Reduce the Cost of Old Age Benefits: Means test, raise eligibility etc.

  Increase Individual Retirement Savings: Mandated IRA’s

  Encourage Longer Work Lives

  Enable more Young to Work

  Maximize Advantage of Trade:

+Policy Options: Diplomacy

  Expand the “Developed World” Club: Younger and expanding nations need a seat at the table as take on a larger role in global trade and security.

  Prepare for a Larger US Role

  Invest in Development Assistance: Develop long term cost effective strategies of development aid and structural assistance.

  Remain vigilant to the threat of Neo-Authoritarianism: As demographics shift some regions in the world will be particularly vulnerable to dramatic political changes.

+Where is the Military in all of this?

  The composition and role of the military will change dramatically over the next 40 years. Some of the changes we can expect:   Growing Casualty Aversion (youth are too valuable)

  Substitution of Military Technology for Manpower (only so much can be done remotely)

  Substitution of nonnative for native military manpower (perhaps in exchange for citizenship)

  Creation of “service alliances” with friendly developing nations (we pay your bills, you fight our wars…)

  Adapt weapons, training, and force structure to suit new global scenario (more nation building capability)

+Comparative Analysis:

+Conclusion:

  Discussions on containing health care costs that do not address the importance of population aging are missing a critical link in the causal chain.

  A greater portion of the burden of health care costs is gradual shifting from the private sector to the public sector as the population ages. The long term out look for cost growth in the health care sector is clearly unsustainable.

  Our health care spending is out of line with other industrialized nations that have similar population aging issues.

  Options exist to begin work on these critical issues through engaged advocacy, research, and the creation of actionable policy recommendations.

+Want to Know More:

The A. Alfred Taubman Center at Brown University offers full courses taught by private and public sector experts associated with the As America Ages Project. For a full listing of events, courses, and recent research please visit:

http://www.brown.edu/Project/As_America_Ages/

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Leave a message on our Blog at: http://blogs.brown.edu/as-america-ages/