Natural Hazards, Cutting Edge Knowledge and Societal Benefits

Graciano P. Yumul Jr.

Department of Science and Technology

National Institute of Geological Sciences

College of Science, UP Diliman120

o125

o

10o

15o

SouthChina Sea

PhilippineSea

Sulu Sea

SeaCelebes

2006 Guinsaugon, Southern Leyte

2003

2006

2006 Legaspi, Albay

2008 Masbate, Masbate

Source: Masbate LGU

2009 Binga Road, Benguet

2009 Halsema Road, Benguet

2011 St. Bernard, So.Leyte

2011 Oas, Albay

10AM 18 Oct. 2010

MTSAT

image

© PAGASA, 2010

2011 Cold Front

http://www.osdpd.noaa.gov/data/sst/anomaly/

anomnight.current.gif

2009 El Niño

2010La Niña

Two Types of El Niño Southern Oscillation

• Eastern Pacific; Canonical; Conventional;

Cold Tongue

• Central Pacific; Dateline; Modoki; Warm

Pool(Yeh et al. 2009; Kug et al. 2009)

El Niño Southern Oscillation

• 2009-2011 ENSO – Central Pacific (CP)

type

• In a warming world, more CP-type ENSO

expected(Lee & McPhaden 2010; Di Lorenzo et al. 2010)

El Niño Southern Oscillation

• Anomalies:

- Prolonged NE Monsoon

- Presence of Cold Front

- Low Pressure Areas south of

Mindanao

- Enhanced rain in Visayas-Mindanao

El Niño Southern Oscillation

What to expect?

• Wet summer

• More tropical cyclones than 2010

• Stronger tropical cyclones

December Rainfall

January Rainfall

Precipitation Data

• December 2010 and January 2011 rainfall

data = 2005 data

• January 2011 precipitation strongest

• Stronger precipitation increasing in

frequency(Lee & McPhaden 2010; Di Lorenzo et al. 2010)

Landslides and Water

• High amount of water in pores of slope

beds = drive acceleration of landslides and

entrainment of additional slope materials

• Same results with entirely dry granular

materials

• Cohesive effect of low water content on

granular materials important(Mangeney 2011; Iverson et al 2011)

2005-2009 Weather-related Disasters

• Drought = 1%

• Mass movement = 4%

• Flood = 37%

• Storm = 58%

(OFDA/CRED; Israel 2010)

2007 Central Luzon

2008 Iloilo

Source: DOST VI

2009 Botolan, Zambales

2010 Pangasinan

2010 San Roque Dam, Pangasinan

CAGAYAN

RIVER BASIN

PAMPANGA

RIVER BASIN

AGNO RIVER

BASIN

MAGAT DAM

AMBUKLAO DAM

BINGA DAM

SAN ROQUE DAM

IPO DAM

ANGAT DAM

PANTABANGAN DAM

Magat dam -

Isabela

Pantabangan

dam – Nueva

Ecija

Angat & Ipo

dams -

Bulacan

San Roque

dam -

Pangasinan

Ambuklao &

Binga dams -

Benguet

Location of monitored

dams in Luzon

GPS SURVEY OF PFZ

DRM Cycle

Summary

• Extreme weather event not needed.

• Too much water in the atmosphere.

• Changes in climate stop development.

• Creeping disaster is a reality.

• Science must benefit Society.

The Millennium Development Goals (8)

Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger

Goal 4: Reduce child mortality

Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women

Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education

Goal 5: Improve maternal health

Goal 8: Develop a Global Partnership for Development

Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability

Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria and other diseases

The Millennium Development Goals (8)