Post on 13-Jul-2015
transcript
New Challenges in the High Stakes World of Oil Trading
CHAIR Albert Helmig - Chief Executive Officer Grey House
Christopher Bake - Member of the Executive Committee and the
Head of Origination Vitol
Fereidun Fesharaki - Chairman FGE
Pierre Andurand - Chief Investment Officer and Managing Partner
Andurand Capital
Albert Helmig
Chief Executive Officer Grey House
New Challenges in the High Stakes World of Oil Trading
Prompt Prices, Brent & WTI
80.00
85.00
90.00
95.00
100.00
105.00
110.00
115.00
120.00
125.00
130.00
ICE Brent
Nymex WTI
Combined Open Interest and Volume
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
DME Oman Daily Open Interest
ICE Brent Daily Open Interest
ICE WTI Daily Open Interest
NYMEX Brent Daily Open Interest
NYMEX WTI Daily Open Interest
DME Oman Daily Volume
ICE Brent Daily Volume
ICE WTI Daily Volume
NYMEX Brent Daily Volume
NYMEX WTI Daily Volume
NYMEX WTI Open Interest vs. Prompt Price
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
2,000,000
Nymex WTI Total Open…Nymex WTI Prompt Price
ICE Brent Open Interest vs. Prompt Price
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
$160
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
ICE Brent Total Open Interest
ICE Brent Prompt Price
74
77
80
83
86
89
92
95
98
101
104
Nov '14 Nov '15 Nov '16
($/bbl)
Contract Delivery Month
Last YearYear AgoOct 15
NYMEX WTI Forward Curves
ICE Brent Forward Curves
80
84
88
92
96
100
104
108
112
Nov '14 May '15 Nov '15 May '16 Nov '16 May '17
($/bbl)
Contract Delivery Month
Two years Ago
Last Year
Oct 15
$80/bbl – Should we be surprised?
Chris Bake
Member of the Executive Committee and the
Head of Origination
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IEA
OP
EC
US
DO
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2015 Forecast
Overly high expectations: demand growth has been consistently
overestimated - and continues to be so?
IEA Forecast Oil Demand Growth 2014 (Mln b/d)
Efficiency gain in
US new car fleet
18%
Fall in European
and North
American gasoline
consumption
(2004-2014)
1m/bpd
More expensive to
burn fuel oil than
coal or gas (Btu)
c50%
Saving in fuel burn
per seat in new
planes
(A380 / Boeing
787)
≤20%
Efficiency gains and alternative fuel sources are reducing
consumption of crude based fuels
≤25% increase in vessel efficiency
$100 /bbl engendered efficient behaviours
− slowing down
− focus on trim and minimising drag
In China, gasoil demand growth has been falling for the past four yearsChina: Gasoil demand growth (Mln b/d / Yr/Yr / 3 Month Rolling Mean)
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Shale is outperforming expectations - increased new production per
rig dramatically lowering cost per barrel
Bakken: Number of rigs and new production per rig
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100
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400
500
600
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