New Nuclear Weapon System

Submarine Missile

Warhead

New Ship Submersible Ballistic Nuclear (SSBN)

3 or 4 new nuclear-armed submarinesfirst in service in 2024

Submarine Programme08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59

Vanguard

New SSBN

Nuclear-Armed Submarines

Submarine Programme08 11 14 17 20 23 26 29 32 35 38 41 44 47 50 53 56 59

Vanguard

New SSBN

Trafalgar

Astute

MUFC

Nuclear-Armed Submarines

Conventionally-Armed Submarines

New SSBN Timeline2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

ConceptDesign

Initial Design

Detail Design

Outputs

Build

Main Gate

InitialGate

New SSBN Timeline

07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24

ConceptDesign

InitialDesign

Detailed Design

Production Outputs

Build & Commission

Sea Trials

In Service

InitialGate

MainGate

Reactor options for new SSBN

PWR 2New Generation

Nuclear Propulsion Plant (NGNPP)

Reactor on Vanguard & Astute

New Design

Passive cooling system

Safer ?

New Prototype ?

More expensive ?

Continuous Patrols

Alert – “measured in days” non-verifiable

“our planned future programme should takeus up to 750 [patrols]” Rear Admiral Matthews

One armed submarine on patrol at all times

Patrols

1968-2007 300

2008-2060 ? 450

Total 750

New Nuclear Weapon System

Submarine Missile

Warhead

Missile System

Initially - TridentLater - Trident or new US missile

Missile options

24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 48 50 52 54 56 58 60

British “successor” submarine in-service 2024 – 2060

Trident D5 in service with US Navy until 2042

ULMS & SSBN(X) in service with US Navy from 2029

Underwater Launched Missile System(ULMS)

New US missile to replace Trident D5

In service by 2029

Initial concept studies started in 2007

Considered by Strategic Advisory Group November 2007

Operational independence ?

“without United States cooperation … Polaris would become ineffective after only a few months”

Sir Charles Ellworthy March 1971

New Nuclear Weapon System

Submarine Missile

Warhead

Nuclear Warhead

Options for nuclear warhead

UK Tridentwarhead

New warheador

Plutonium pit

No replacementLifespan 60 years plus

New PitFire Resistant

Life Extension

New Warhead

High Explosives

Replace EDC 37 High Explosive after 16 ? years

Insensitive High ExplosivesSafer, Larger & Heavier

Life Extension

New Warhead

Modernisation of Aldermaston

Implications for Scotland

2024 – 2055

• nuclear warheads in transport and storage

• nuclear-armed nuclear-powered submarines

• potential nuclear attack on targets in Scotland

Warhead accident - Plutonium dispersal

30 mSvConsiderEvacuation

3 mSvConsiderShelter

Plutonium: 4 KgExplosives: 20 lbWind: SW 5 m/sComputer Programme Hotspots 2.06

Total EffectiveDose Equivalent

Comparison of Hotspots & LAESI

Downwind Distance

Dose Countermeasure

400 m 300 mSv Evacuate

2.5 km 30 mSv Consider Evacuation

16 km 3 mSv Consider Shelter

HOTSPOTS MODEL

LAESI GUIDELINES

Distance Arc Countermeasure

600m 360 Evacuate

5 km 45 Shelter

Ground deposition of Plutonium

100 kBq/m2

10 kBq/m2

Plutonium: 4 KgExplosives: 20 lbWind: SW 5 m/sComputer Programme Hotspots 2.06

Submarine Hazards

Reactor

Fuel for 30 year operation 98% enriched HEU;decay products greatest in later years.

Submarine Hazards

HMS Tireless in Gibraltar 2000/01

Submarine Hazards

Missiles

The rocket fuel in 12 Trident missiles is equivalent to 820 tonnes of TNT

Submarine Hazards

Nuclear Warheads

Nuclear warheads are fixed around the third stage of each missiles

Submarine Hazards

Torpedoes

Torpedoes are designed to sink a modern submarine

August 2000:Torpedo accident on Kursk

Submarine Hazards

Fire

Fire on a submarine can lead to a nuclear accident

October 2004Fire on Upholder (HMCS Chicoutimi)

Submarine Hazards

USS Scorpion bow USS Scorpion stern

Sinking2 US and 6 Russian nuclear submarines

have sunk following accidents

Submarine Hazards

• Explosion of 820 tonnes rocket fuel

• Detonation of nuclear warhead

• Dispersal of 200 kg plutonium from warheads

• Dispersal of radioactive material from reactor

Where could an accident happen ?

Faslane

Base for Trident and proposed base

for Successor SSBN

Faslane Shiplift

Lifts submarine with missiles & nuclear weapons

Construction problems

Vulnerable to aircrash

May be replaced by dry dock

Coulport

Warheads attached & removed in

Explosives Handling Jetty

Submarines in transit

Risk to towns in Clyde estuary

Hazard zones for submarines in transit

2 km zonearound wheresubmarinesregularly sail

Equivalent topreplannedcountermeasureszone for berths.

Hazard zones for submarines in transit

10 km zonearound wheresubmarinesregularly sail

Equivalent toextendibilityzone for berths.

Loch Goil Z berth

Noise Range

Rothesay Z berth

Mooring Buoy in Rothesay Bay

Highland Z Berths

Highland Z Berths & Trials

Broadford Z Berth

Rona Noise Range

Lochewe Z Berth

Submarine exercise areas

Dounreay

PWR2 Reactor Prototype

Possible new Prototype ?

New nuclear reactor at Dounreay ?

In service 2018 – 2044 ?

Transport of new fuel, used fuel and waste across Scotland

New Tritium Production Facility ?

Decay of current tritium stockpile2006 2054

• Previous source: Chapelcross

• Location of new facility unknown

Scope of safety schemes

Road transport of nuclear weapons

LAESI guidelines

Road & rail transport of Defence Nuclear Materials

LAESI guidelines

Submarine reactor accident at a berth

Clyde and Highland Safety Schemes

Reactor accident at HMS Vulcan Dounreay

Vulcan safety scheme

Reactor or Warhead accident at sea

No specific scheme

Safety schemes scenarios

SafetySchemeScenario

WorstCase

NuclearWarheadTransport

PlutoniumDispersal

NuclearYield

SubmarineLoss of Coolant

ContainmentFailure

Nuclear-Armed

Submarine

Loss of Coolant

Nuclear Yield& Containment

Failure

Containment Failure Accident

NII LicencingFunction Site NII Licensed

Warhead Manufacture

Atomic Weapons Establishment

Yes

Submarine Refit & Maintenance

DevonportDockyard

Yes

Fuel Rod Fabrication

Derby Yes

Submarine Maintenance

Faslane No

Warhead Handling

Coulport No

Prototype Reactor

HMS Vulcan, Dounreay

No

Relative risks

Probability

Effect

LeastEffect

GreatestEffect

MostLikely

LeastLikely

Nuclear War

SubmarineOr Warhead

Accident

Effect of nuclear war - Targeting

Nuclear targeting priorities:

1. Nuclear weapons & Command/Control2. Military facilities3. Military industrial facilities4. Other industrial & civilian facilities

With fewer weapons the emphasis is on top priority targets.

Primary Nuclear Targets in Scotland

Berths 10 & 11Faslane

Berth 12 & ShipliftFaslane

Explosives Handling Jetty Coulport

Reentry Body Magazine Coulport

Effect of nuclear attack on Faslane

10 Sv100 % fatalities

4.5 Sv50 % fatalities

300 mSvEvacuate

Weapons: 6 x 550 Kt warheadsGround Zero: Faslane/CoulportWind: 5 m/s WNWExposure: 1 week; Shelter factor: 0.5 Computer Programme: Hotspots 2.06

Nuclear Waste issues

Nuclear Warheads Final disposal;Waste generated atAldermaston & Coulport

Used Fuel Used Fuel from 3-4 new submarines

In-service waste from submarine

Handled at Faslane

Prototype for new reactor ?

Used Fuel; in-service waste & decommissioning

Submarines after decommissioning

No solution or location identified

Disposal of submarine

hulks

Defuelled 11

AwaitingDefuelling

3

In service 13

CurrentSubtotal

27

Astute 7 ?

New SSBN 4 ?

MUFC 7 ?

Potential Total 2070 45

Rosyth Dockyard

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

Nuclear Weapons Budget 2007 - 2011

07/08 08/09 09/10 10/11

£ million

AWE Operating

Other

“TridentReplacement”

+ AWE Development

21002000

17001500

Trident Replacement Procurement Costs

Warhead £2-3 bn

Infrastructure £2-3 bn

Submarine £11-15 bn

Total £15-20 bn

Nuclear Weapons Costs 2008-2058

Average Annual cost £1.5 bn

Total cost over 50 years £75 bn