Post on 06-Feb-2018
transcript
New Population Projections for California that Report Immigrant Generation & Length of Residence
John Pitkin & Dowell Myerspresented at the23rd Annual Demographic Workshop of SCAG/USCMonday, May 23, 2011
Goals for thisPresentation
• Provide an explanation of how this version of the California Demographic Futures is being developed.
• Provide a preview of the interim projections, which are due to be finalized this summer.
• Discuss the implications of the findings.
Background
Three Key Trends Have Turned Around
• California's attraction to new immigrants has plunged by one third; new immigrants diverted to other states.
• New immigrants' share of the total California population has also dropped, contrary to other states in the nation.
• The volume of immigration to the US peaked in 2000, dipped further during the recession, and is not likely to return to 2000 levels for many years, if ever.
Demographic Projection Content
Age
Sex
Race or Hispanic Origin
Age
Sex
Race or Hispanic Origin
Native or Foreign Born
Year of Entry of Foreign Born
Generation of Native Born
Conventional CDF Model
Stages of Model Development CDF
Estimation phase Works forward from Census 2000 populationTargets April 1, 2010 base populationCalibrates to records of the 2000-2009 period:
American Community Survey + Vital records
Projection phase
-- interim (using PL 94-171 and DP-1 data)-- final (using SF1 for 2010)
Key Assumptionson Immigration
Immigration to California Fell After 2003
Gross Immigration to CA, Annual, 1970-2006
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Th
ou
san
ds
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
CA
/ U
.S. im
mig
rati
on
Mexico, C.A.Asian, PIOtherTotalCA/US, Total, rt. axis
Immigration from Mexico to California Down Sharply
Mexican Share of U.S. Immigrants by Year of
Entry
0.00
0.05
0.10
0.15
0.20
0.25
0.30
0.35
0.40
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0.16
0.18
0.20
U.S.
CA (right scale)
What to assume about future level of immigration to U.S.?
• Ask ten leading immigration researchers in a Delphi-style survey (April 2011).
• Show them the historical trend and ask opinion on future level in 2015 and 2025.
• Are the experts too bullish?
Record shows immigration peak in 2000
Annual Gross Foreign Born Immigration to U.S. 1990-2009-2025
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
An
nu
al im
mig
rati
on
(2
00
0 =
10
0)
Passel-Suro
ACS ROYA
?
?
?
?
Results: future levels near 2000 peak
Annual Gross Foreign Born Immigration to U.S. 1990-2009
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Year
An
nu
al im
mig
rati
on
(2000 =
100)
Passel-SuroACS ROYA
Population Descriptions
Preliminary CDF Results
Data Not Finalized
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Total Population Projections for California, DOF & CDF
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Rising Hispanic Share of Population
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Falling White Share of Population
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Steady White Population
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
CA Racial & Ethnic Composition
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
CA Racial & Ethnic Composition
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
2000 Population by Age and Race
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
2020 Population by Age and Race
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
2040 Population by Age and Race
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Hispanic Share of Each Age
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
White Non-Hispanic Share by Age
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Foreign Born Share by Age
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Steady Percent Foreign Born
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
CA Population by Place of Birth
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
2000 CA Population by Birthplace, Generation, and Length of Residence in U.S.
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
2020 CA Population by Birthplace, Generation, and Length of Residence in U.S.
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
2040 CA Population by Birthplace, Generation, and Length of Residence in U.S.
Implications
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
California Population by Generation
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Hispanic Population by Generation
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
Asian Population by Generation
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Settled Immigrants New ImmigrantsPitkin & Myers '10
CDF 9-7
Percent of California Population Who Are Immigrants
Preliminary CDF Results – Data Not Finalized
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040
Settled Immigrants New ImmigrantsPitkin & Myers '10
CDF 9-7
Percent of California Population Who Are Immigrants
Helping Hands
by Nativity and Duration in California
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Native Born
Foreign Born
<10 10-19 20-29 30+
Percent in Poverty
Percent in Poverty
by Nativity and Duration in California
Percent with Health Insurance
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Native Born Foreign Born
<10 10-19 20-29 30+
Percent Health Uninsured
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
Native Born Foreign Born
<10 10-19 20-29 30+
Percent Public Transit Commuters
by Nativity and Duration in California
Percent Using Public Transit
0102030405060708090
100
Native Born Foreign Born
<10 10-19 20-29 30+
Percent that Speak English Well
by Nativity and Duration in California
Percent Speaking English Well
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Native BornForeign Born <10 10-19 20-29 30+
Percent of Adults who are Homeowners
by Nativity and Duration in California
Percent of Homeowners
Thank you
For more information on the model development, see:
John Pitkin and Dowell Myers, “Projections of the Population of California by Nativity and Year of Entry to the U.S., in Addition to Age, Sex, Race and Hispanic Origin,” paper presented at the annual meeting of the Population Association of America, April 2011.
See popdynamics website