NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009 Jan Aben. 2 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Selected topics Dutch...

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NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009

Jan Aben

NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben

Selected topics

Dutch baseline compared to Current Policy CC policy and effects on AQ Effects of credit crisis Attainability of new PM2.5 standards

Ammonia deposition modelling Comparison of SRMs (EMEP, Lotos-Euros)

Updated baseline (BGE)

Global Economy (GDP: + 2.9%/yr) Primes Energy Scenario (oil price: 60-70 $/barrel) CO2 price: 35 €/ton

Set and envisaged policy Limited additional climate policy after 2012

Europe and world wide policies

Euro 5 for LDV Euro 6 for LDV (as of 2014) EURO VI for HDV Fuel Quality Directive for inland shipping and

mobile machinery Sea shipping measures (IMO)

Specific Dutch policies

Set policies SO2 emission limits for E-production and refineries

Air washers for emissions from animal housings Air ticket tax

Envisaged policies Sharpened emission limits for medium combustion

plants PM emission limit for industry Road pricing

Comparison of BGE with Current Policy

Emission target for industry ?

NOx emission in 2020 per sector

Effects of CC Policies on AP emissions

Credit Crisis leads to significant reductions in final demand

Medium Term Outlook *)

February 2009 estimates

Sector 2008-2010 2008 2009 2010

Agriculture 5.1 -0.7 -9.7 -0.3

Food / bevarage industry

4.6 -0.8 -8.2 +0.2

Other industry 3.7 +0.7 -6.5 -0.9

Chemistry 5.6 -1.5 -10.5 +0.4

Metallurgic industry 5.2 0.0 -10.6 -1.2

Oil refineries 5.4 -1.3 -10.0 +0.4

Extraction of minerals 5.6 -1.2 -10.8 +0.1

Openbaar nut 1.5 +2.1 -1.3 -1.2

Construction 2.3 +9.2 -10.9 -11.4

Real Estate 1.3 +2.1 -0.7 -1.0

Trade 2.9 +1.3 -4.9 -1.2

Transportation and storage

4.3 -0.5 -7.3 +0.1

Communication 2.3 +1.7 -3.6 -1.3

Banking and Assurance 2.1 +1.9 -2.9 -1.4

Employment agencies and domestic services

1.4 +1.5 +0.7 +0.1

Other tertiary 3.1 +2.1 -6.1 -2.4

Quaternary 1.7 +1.2 +0.4 +0.4

Government 1.5 +1.4 +1.5 +0.6

Total 3.2 +1.4 -5.3 -1.3

*) CPB (Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis), 2007

Attainability of PM standards - Legislation

EU Air Quality Directive 2008: 4 standards for PM2.5

Exposure Reduction target (ERT) is the most stringent standard ERT depends on Average Exposure Indicator (AEI) in 2010

15% reduction if AEI in 2010 < 18 µg/m3

20% reduction if AEI in 2010 > 18 µg/m3

Uncertainty about ERT for NL because AEI for 2010 is near 18 µg/m3

Attainability of PM standards – Results

Dutch emissions: BGE-baseline Foreign emissions: Amann (2008) AEI in 2010: 16.1 µg/m3 ERT of 15% is likely attainable,

attainment of ERT of 20% would require additional NL and EU measures beyond EP ambitions

Model bias: 6 - 7.5 µg/m3

Ammonia deposition modelling

Model improvement

Change in NHx deposition

moles N per ha per yr

Comparison of SRMs

SRMs calculated with Lotos-Euros For emission reductions (-15%) SO2, NOx, NH3, VOC

and PM2.5 in BEL, GER, FRA, GBR and NLD

Same base emissions as used by EMEP Effect on primary and secondary PM2.5

concentrations studied for BEL, DEU, FRA, GBR and NLD

SRMs compared to SRMs derived with EMEP model (v2.8 and v3.0)

Same country mean values, but different contributions

Comparison of EMEP with Lotos-Euros

Thank you for your attention

Contacts

Baseline: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl Synergy of CCP: Pieter.Hammingh@pbl.nl Attainability of ERT: Jan.Matthijssen@pbl.nl Ammonia Modelling: Hans.vanJaarsveld@pbl.nl SRMs: Jelmer.Cnossen@pbl.nl Credit Crisis: Eric.Drissen@pbl.nl General: Jan.Aben@pbl.nl

NIAM meeting, 23-24 March 2009 Jan Aben. 2 NIAM, 23-24 March 2009, Jan Aben Selected topics Dutch...

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