NOAA’s National Weather Service (NWS)New York, NY Office

Brandon Smith Aviation and Decision Support Program

Manager WFO New York

NWS Decision Supportfor High Profile Events

Decision Support OverviewDecision Support Overview ◆ Decision Support Services – not a new concept (Incident Decision Support Services – not a new concept (Incident

Meteorologist) Meteorologist) – Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster and the Driven By Relationships Between the NWS Forecaster and the

Decision MakerDecision Maker

NWS IMET

Preparing for wildfire support circa 1930.

Decision Support OverviewDecision Support Overview

◆ National Weather Service provides specific/tailored support to emergency managers, within the scope of its Mission. National Weather Service provides specific/tailored support to emergency managers, within the scope of its Mission.

– Communicates Concisely in Non-Technical TermsCommunicates Concisely in Non-Technical Terms – Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method Communicates In The Decision Maker’s Preferred Method

– Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs Understands A Customer’s Specific Needs

– Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments Adapts Well to Changeable Working Environments

– Knows Role in Incident Command System Knows Role in Incident Command System

– Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture” Understands The Incident’s “Big Picture”

Decision Support OverviewDecision Support Overview

◆ Decision Maker Decision Maker

– Do I Trust You? Do I Trust You? – Are You A Team Player? Are You A Team Player?

– Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations)Weather Is Information (Just Like Logistics, Operations)

– Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time?Can You Provide The Information I Need At The Right Time?

– I Want Your I Want Your Best EstimateBest Estimate and Level of Confidence and Level of Confidence

High Profile NYC Metro Events

◆ Support to NYC OEM for the Annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parades, Manhattan

◆ 3rd Presidential Debate: 10/15/08, Hofstra University - Hempstead, NY

◆ Decision Support Services to the Federal Aviation Administration’s New York Terminal Radar Approach Control (TRACON) Facility.

Photo by NYC OEM

OEM Emergency Operations Center

Support for Annual Thanksgiving Day Parades

About the Parade

◆ More than 3 Million people line streets of Mid-Town Manhattan

◆ More than 10,000 Parade Participants

◆ Parade 9 am – Noon; Millions of Extra People 6 am – 3 pm

In this photo provided by the United States Potato Board, handlers struggle to move the Healthy Mr. Potato Head balloon when it is hit with a gust of wind while going through New York City's Columbus Circle during the annual Macy's Thanksgiving Day Parade.(AP Photo)

NYC OEM Requirements

Wind Speeds Along Parade Route are critical…

- How “high” should balloons fly?- How many balloon handlers

are needed?- Criteria for Lowering Balloons:

Sustained speeds at least 23, gusts to 34 mph

- Central Park ASOS not enough.

NYC OEM Requirements

◆ Supplemental Wind Sensor Network (7 Sensors) Along Parade Route

◆ Private Contractor Installs and Maintains Sensors for Macy’s

◆ NWS interprets web based data in conjunction with all other information and provides short term wind forecasts for NYC OEM

ASOS Algorithms

Instantaneous

• Only about 1100 in attendance at the arena

• Over 15,000 within ½ mile of the arena

2008 Presidential Debate – Oct 15, 2008

Farmingdale Airport

Hofstra UniversityFarmingdale Airport (KFRG)

Hofstra University and Farmingdale Airport

David S. Mack Auditorium

NO PARKING!!

NO PARKING!!Rain/Drizzle becomes a much larger security issue:

15,000 people is one issue

15,000 people with Rain Coats and umbrellas is another

• Provide continuous weather support to the EOC in terms of public impact (rain/temps/wind)

• Provide HAZMAT/Emergency response forecast information (HYSPLIT)

Services

• Coordinate with NY TRACON in maintaining secure airspace around Republic Airport (KFRG) where dignitaries were landing.

•NY TRACON

Consider These Numbers …Consider These Numbers …

◆ $6 BILLION$6 BILLION– What is lost annually in economic What is lost annually in economic

efficiencies as a result of air traffic delaysefficiencies as a result of air traffic delays

◆ 70%70%– The percentage of air traffic delays The percentage of air traffic delays

attributed to weatherattributed to weather

DECISION SUPPORT FOR AVIATION

NYC Metro Airspace is the busiest in the world

JFK/EWR/LGA are in the top 20 in the nation

HPN/TEB have 150,000+ operations per year.

Aviation Demonstration Test

◆ A 60 day test of enhanced aviation weather information services provided by WFO New York involving a dedicated Aviation Forecaster

◆ Monday-Friday, including holidays.

Purpose:

◆ Provide enhanced aviation weather forecast information in support of N90 and area Towers.

◆ Test runs through November

◆ Performance metrics: FAA Comments, Aviation Stats on Demand,

Aviation Demonstration Test

◆ Why? ◆ Because….

– Improving collaboration among the NWS and FAA facilities

– Disseminating more frequent weather information– Increasing service to aviation customers– Improving service delivery infrastructure

Aviation Demonstration Test

This is the key to managing the impact of weather on the New York metropolitan area

◆ Additional things we are planning to provide…

◆ Additional coordination with the TRACONs and FAA Command Center, in conjunction with the CWSU whenever significant weather is being added to the TAFs

◆ Participate in the CCFP chat to provide input along with the CWSU

◆ Icing forecast for select holding points from8-14KFT

How?Aviation Demonstration Test

Thanks…

◆ Questions?

◆ Contact info…Brandon.smith@noaa.gov631-924-0562

Area of ResponsibilityAviation Service Area

◆ Extra slides

NWS Organization

◆ National Headquarters in Silver Spring, MD◆ More than 12 National Centers◆ 6 Regional Headquarters

- Eastern Region in Bohemia (LI), NY◆ 122 Weather Forecast Offices◆ 13 River Forecast Centers◆ About 5,000 people (3,000 Meteorologists)

6-1

Who Are We?

◆ DOC - Department of Commerce

◆ NOAA – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration

◆ NWS – National Weather Service

NWS Mission

◆ Save Lives◆ Minimize Property Damage◆ Enhance the National Economy

Through the Issuance of Accurate and Timely

Warnings, Advisories, Watches, and Outlooks

National Weather Service Eastern Region

◆ 23 WFO’s◆ 4 CWSU’s◆ 3 RFC’s

◆ Serves an area covering XXX sq miles and a population of XXX.

Got a nice ER map??