Felix H. Tschudi

Tschudi Shipping Company AS

New frontiers: The Northern Sea Route

Cefor Centennial Conference

Oslo, April 7, 2011

CONVENTIONAL SHIPPING

ICE CLASS MULTIPURPOSE CONTAINER VESSELS TANKERS, BULK AND COMBINATION CARRIERS

PROJECT CARGOES COMMODITY SHIPPING

OFFSHORE

•International Transport Contractors:

•Anchorhandling tug supply vessels•Ocean going tugs

Tschudi Logistics

East – West logistics betweenwestern Europe, Russia and the Central Asian Republic

�Container lines

�Door – door transportation

�Project cargoes

�Rail and road forwarding

Including Tschudi Northern Logistics based in Kirkenes and Murmansk, specialising

in cross border transportation and custom clearance

But, in our opinion it’s time to wake up

and …….

and look towards the North!

We like to see the Earth from this Direction!WHY?

Large potential for energy resourcesLarge potential for energy resourcesLarge potential for energy resourcesLarge potential for energy resources

and minerals and metals. Not least in Russia!

In 2006, Tschudi Shipping Company AS bought the closed down iron ore mine, Sydvaranger, in Kirkenes, Norway. In 2009 the mine which had been listed on the

Australian Stock Exchange ASX under the name Northern Iron, reopened. By the summer 2010 nearly all shipments had gone to China.

Iron ore prices and the importance of freight

An alternative shipping lane with savings too large to be ignored!

To invite relevant participants in the value chain around one table:Cargo owner- Ship owner- Traders –ice breakers – brokers – Insurance –CP& law –Classification -public authorities – research institutions www.chnl.no

Projects - Case workshop, Kirkenes, April 29, 2010

”Opening the Northern Sea Route for regular oil, gas and dry bulk transportation between

Europe and Asia” - Shipment of iron ore concentrate from Kirkenes to China

MV Nordic Barents NSR Transit, September 2010 from Kirkenes to China

Danish owned and operated by NORDIC BULK CARRIERS, Copenhagen

Vessel loaded 40140 MT of iron ore concentrate from the Sydvaranger Mine

sold by the Russian trading company PROMINVEST to Chinese steel mills

07.09.10 Satellite ice image Vilkitskyi Strait, near 106 E

Different conditions Sep. 9

Separate ice floes and icebergs, ice

fields 2-3 m thickness.

Remark from vessel Sep. 10: Sailing in the wake of the Atomic Icebreaker "50 Let Pobedy" bypassing ice fields and forcing ice crosspieces

Growlers may cause damage to the hull if the vessel hits one at excessive speed.

Rain or snow and sea may cause interference making it difficulty to see smaller

icebergs and growlers on the radar screen. Picture dated 12.09.10. Vsl’s pos. 73 14 N

159 30 E

Radar screen image

A positive voyage result compared to

the Suez Canal and the route via Cape !

Distance Kirkenes - Lianyungang via Suez : about 12175 nm Estimated expected speed: 13 knots

Estimated voyage time: 40 days including 1 day at Port Said.

Voyage duration via NSR (about 6500 nm) : 22,5 days average speed 12.03 knots

Estimated time saved via NSR: 17,5 days @ 28,2 MT of fuel

Estimated fuel saved (today’s prices): 493 M.tons. @ USD 610/tonn = 300 000 USD

Cost of ice breaker escort and passing the Suez Canal roughly equal

Additional cost of insurance important!

Enviromental savings, all figures approximate.

NOx 50 tonn

CO2 1557 tonn

SOx 35 tonn

In addition the threat of piracy is avoided! The Cape Route adds another 15 days.

Not only ice – difficult depths and different routesNorthern Sea Route Tracks determines the size of vesselsNorthern Sea Route Tracks determines the size of vessels

Hydrographic Office Stations

Legend

New Deepwater Track

Traditional Tracks Alternative DW Track

NovosibirskyNovosibirsky

ArchipelagoArchipelago

SannikovSannikov StraitStrait

(12.8 m)(12.8 m)

Dmitry Laptev StraitDmitry Laptev Strait

(7.0 m)(7.0 m)

Northern PassageNorthern Passage

(15+ m)(15+ m)

SannikovSannikov Strait Strait –– the Draft Bottleneckthe Draft Bottleneck

MurmanskMurmansk

VitinoVitino

Y2010

Y2011

SCF Program of NSR developmentSCF Program of NSR development

YY20102010

� NSR voyage with Aframax size tanker drawing 11.0 m draft via Sannikov Strait

in August / September - COMPLETE

YY20112011

�� Extending Extending ««navigable windownavigable window»» - voyage with Panamax size tanker (Ice

class Arc-6) in May-June

�� Cargo parcel increaseCargo parcel increase - voyage with fully-loaded Suezmax size tanker (Ice

class Arc-4) by newly-established high latitude deepwater track in July-August

YamalYamal

What will influence this short term scenario?

Atomflot has already received 15 enquiries for NSR passages in 2011 !

• The Freight level for different cargo types

• Type of cargo – market price differences - time sensitive cargoes

• Time required for passage - Ice conditions and waiting time

• Availability of ice class tonnage in different segments and sizes –which level of ice class is required?

• Cost elements: Bunker prices - Insurance – Port charges - NSR Transit (laden and in ballast) versus Suez canal tarifs

• Piracy threat – cost of insurance and protection – risk of non-delivery of cargo

The NSR will create more opportunities in the years to come!

• The northern regions have changed from having a distance disadvantage to having a transport advantage to the fast growing markets in the Far East during the ice free season.

• Further cost savings can be achieved by generating return cargoes from the Far East!

SUEZ VS NSR

• Prominvest and Tschudi Arctic Transit have established a new company, Arctic Bulk, focused on promoting and facilitating bulk cargo an other shipments through the NSR

• Arctic Bulk has signed a protocol with Atomflot which secures a number of passages during the season 2011 and is currently working on several cargoes from Kirkenes and Murmansk to the Far East

• The goal is that the NSR going forward will be considered a predictable commercial alternative to the Suez Canal and the route around the Cape during the ice free season for cargoes between ports in the northern part of the northern hemisphere

• Climatic developments – how long will the navigable window be?

• Continued imbalance in resource production and needs – asia vs the rest

• Regulations – IMO Polar Code

• Russia’s continued interest - the next generation ice breakers

• Availability of suitable ice class tonnage

• Types of cargoes and commodity prices

• Freight markets and bunker prices

• Piracy and other factors influencing the cost of alternative routes

The main determinant will always be predictability and a competitive cost level!

What will influence the long term scenario?

The Northern Sea Route is ready for commercial shipping 3-4 months a yearand the Russian Authorities welcome the development!

BUT

The international shipping society needs;

• Access to reliable information

• Predictable knowledge about approvals, adm. procedures and fees

• Operational knowledge

• Interest from the international insurance companies

• Risk evaluation systems

• Access to ice classed vessels

With access to information and political predictability - the international

shipping society should look upon the NSR with great commercial interest!

Northern passage 2010 – Børge Ousland and his team around the

North Pole in 3 months - www.ousland.no/blog

• Transport of oil, gas, minerals and equipment by:

• Specialised shuttle multipurpose vessels

• Shuttle tankers

• Shuttle LNG carriers?

• Shuttle bulkers?

• Purpose built offshore vessels

NP

In the medium term:

Regional destination transport will be the most relevant activity

Beluga Shipping, Germany, carried two project cargoes, modules for GE powerplants, from Korea to the Ob river estuary via the Northern Sea

Route last summer and two more performed from Europe this season!

VOYAGE OF VOYAGE OF ““MONCHEGORSKMONCHEGORSK”” VIA NORTHERN SEA ROUTE VIA NORTHERN SEA ROUTE

TO SOUTH EASTTO SOUTH EAST

DUDINKA

PROVIDENIYA

23.09 23.09

11.45 pm11.45 pm

BUSAN

SHANGHAI

CAPE OF CHELUSKIN

26.0926.09

7 am7 am

CAPE MEDVEZHIY

27.0927.09

6.30 pm6.30 pm

02.10 am02.10 am

ETA 13.10 ETA 13.10

ETA 17.10 ETA 17.10 35

The Varandey offshore terminal in the Pechora Sea serving the Conoco Philips/Lukoil JV, Naryanmarneftegaz, with 3 Sovcomflot operated 70 000 dwt double acting ice breaking crude oil tankers.

Price: Usd 130 million a piece

Year around service

NORILSK NICKELhas introduced double acting ice breaking multipurpose vessels designed by Aker Arctic for serving their miningoperations in Siberia – a true High North logistics system!

Such specialised vessels should keep time outside the ice area to a minimum and tranship their cargo as close to their area of operation as necessary.

Price: Euro 80 million a piece

5 vessels delivered

Year around operation

New Technology

ARCTIC CONTAINER SHIP ARCTIC CONTAINER SHIP –– ICE CLASSICE CLASS ARC 8ARC 8

MoscowMoscow

NorilskNorilskDUDINKADUDINKA

MURMANSKMURMANSK

EUROPEEUROPE

SOUTHSOUTH--EAST ASIAEAST ASIA

38

Russian RiversOb/Irtyish

Novosibirsk to Novy Port

Yenisey

Krasnoyarsk to Dudinka

Lena

Baikal to Tixi

50 million Russians east of the Urals

Most of Russian on-shore oil activity east of UralsSeveral Russian mines and heavy industry east of the Urals

All accessible by new transportation routes.

Arctic Roads

The Norwegian Jonas Lied and the Kara Sea Route 1912 - 18

Northern Norway – a logistics and service platform for Russia?

The ports of Finnmark can serve as supplement to the draft and ice restricted Russian ports serving inbound and outbound

cargoflows.

Focus on overflow from Murmansk such as:

Oil transhipment and transhipment of bulk cargoes

and at a later stage cooperation with Archangel port regarding:

Logistics related to offshore and industrial projects

In the future: Accumulation of cargoes for shipment through the NSR ?

NSR

Europe/US

Handling and Storage of Offshore Equipment to the forthcoming Oil Exploration in the Barents Sea? The

equipment can be shipped from both the West and the East.

Handling and Storage of Mining Equipment tothe Norwegian, Finnish, Swedish and Russian Mining Industry?