Communicating Uncertainty and Increasing Awareness in Rapidly Evolving Severe Weather Scenarios

Matthew A. Dux*Philip N. Schumacher*

* NOAA/NWS – Sioux Falls, SD

April 1, 2016: Severe Storms & Doppler Radar Conference

When This….

Sioux Falls Flood – Aug 2015

4” to 8” of Rain in 2 Hours

…Turns into This

When This….

Blizzard – January 2015

Snow &

50 mph winds

…Turns into This

Significant Event Challenges?

Impact Challenges

- Rapid Development of Impact- Significant Impact to Infrastructure- Less Planning Time by Partners- Long Recovery Times

Messaging Challenges

- Raising Awareness of Threat- Educating on the Impact- Prompting Action & Decisions

How Do We Lower the “Surprise” Factor?

Our Science Has Moved Forward

Ensemble Forecasting

Radar/AWIPS Upgrades

High-Resolution Modeling

Can We Effectively Communicate:

Potential Risk Uncertainty

Actual Impact

Forms of Communications in 2000

Communication Methods have grown over the past 15 years

2016

NWR

Social

Media

Skype

TextProducts

Partner

Briefin

gs

LiveInterviews

Phone/TV

OTARadios

iNWS/Text

WebPages

Direct

Support

Graphicasts

Have we integrated these tools into our operations?

Creating a New Communication Concept

Initially Developed During the Fall of 2014 for Winter

Plan Provides a Communication Framework:

-Keeps consistency in the message-Focuses the type of outgoing message-Provides support for core partners-Follows social science guidelines

-Part of core winter weather message training-Initially focused on messaging of banded snowfall

Weather Communication Model8 to 24+ Hours

4 to 8 Hours Ahead

1 to 4 Hours Ahead

Event Ongoing

Outlook Stage

Alert Stage

Watch Stage

Warning Stage

Post Event StageAfter Event

- Highlight Broad Areas- Show Potential Impacts- Preparedness Info

- Show Increasing Potential- Increase Awareness of Risks- Have Talking Points

- Narrow Focus/Scope- Mesoscale Projections- Message more Certain

- Provide Warnings- Continual Information- “Now-Cast” Theme- Show Impacts

-Summarize Info and Recovery-Talking Points

General

Specific

Outlook Stage Timeline: 8 to 24 Hours Prior

Messaging Plan

- Highlight Broad Areas

- Focus on Potential

- Highlight Awareness

- Address Uncertainty

Other Thoughts:

- Develop Key Points

- Preparedness Info

- Radio/TV Interviews

- Partner Briefings

Alert Stage Timeline: 4 to 8 Hours Prior

Messaging Plan

- Growing Potential

- Future Radars

- Event Timing

- Impact Risks

Other Thoughts:- Invite Media In

- Dedicated Communicator?

- Skype Interviews

- 30 Sec Updates

Watch Stage Timeline: 1 to 4 Hours Prior

Messaging Plan

- Graphical Mesoscale Discussions

- Watch Education

- Increase Information

- Prompt Action Plans

Other Thoughts:- Change Tone of

Message

- Communicator in Place

- SWOP Active?

Warning Stage Timeline: Event Ongoing

Messaging Plan

- Providing Warnings

- Continual Information

- “Now Cast” What’s Ahead

- Show Impacts

Other Thoughts:

- Control Message Tone

- SWOP Breakout

- Live Reports?

Warning Stage Timeline: Event Ongoing

Other Types of Messages:

- 30 Second Human Video Updates

- Animated Radar GIFS to Show Motion

- Showing Impacts

- Live Radio/TV Interviews or Updates

Post Event Stage Timeline: Event Ongoing

Messaging Plan

- Continual Information

- Web Page Summary

- Show Impacts

- Provide Support for Recovery

Other Thoughts:

- Key Event Points for all Staff Members

- Control Message

- PIO/Communicator

What Tools Do We Need…

Build a Robust Set of Graphics Templates

Establish a Communications Work Area-Including quick references

Specialized Communications Training For All Staff Members

Keep the Key Messages VisibleTo All Staff Members

Example of Key Messages

Message Templates

Future Work and ChallengesFuture Work:

Redefining Communications Role Within Severe Weather Operations Plans (SWOP)

Integrating Communication Training Into Office Training-Simulated Social Media Feeds-Having Staff Prepare Pre-Event Communications Plans-Simulating Interviews and Briefings with Partners/Media

Challenges:

1.) Do we have sufficient available resources

2.) Maintaining the balance of science and communications

Important Questions for the Future

Does Your Office Have a Communications Plan?

Is Everyone Prepared to Take on a Communications Role?

We have “mesoscale meteorologists” , do we need “communication specialists”

Let’s Keep the Conversation Going!

Contact: Matthew.Dux@noaa.gov@MatthewDux