NWS NashvilleWeekly Outlook Briefing

November 28, 2011

Week at a Glance

• Primary weather impacts today into Tuesday– Moderate to heavy rain northeast of I-24

• Flood Watch in effect through this afternoon

– Rain will mix with snow at times west of I-65• No snow accumulation expected today

– Rain will mix with snow from southwest to northeast tonight into Tuesday• Some accumulation possible southern Middle TN

– Will have to monitor possibility of “wrap-around” snow across northern areas Tuesday Night

Morning Radar

Rainfall Total Forecast

Heavy Rain/Flooding Potential East

• Heaviest additional rains will fall over the northern Plateau– Flash Flood Watch in effect through the afternoon– Another inch to locally two inches possible– Flooding of small streams/poor drainage areas

possible– Rain expected to taper off for awhile later today

Winter Weather Potential• Rain expected to mix with snow at times west of

I-65 today• Rain to mix with or change to snow all areas

tonight into Tuesday– In southwest Middle Tennessee this evening– Overspreading the rest of the area overnight into

Tuesday Morning– Coldest air will be with the upper low to the south

• Winter Weather Advisory Wayne/Lawrence/Giles

– Elevation will matter in terms of where snow sticks

Elevation > 1000 feet shaded

10% Chance of 4 Inch Snow

Updated Winter Outlook

• Recent forecast from the Climate Prediction Center has trended warmer for the winter

• Still expecting above normal precipitation• Recent La Nina winters have been active for

severe weather and tornadoes in Middle TN

• Click for more detailed information• Plan to resume weekly briefings around the

first of the year

Winter Temperature Outlook

Winter Precipitation Outlook

QUESTIONS?

Thomas.johnstone@noaa.gov