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October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
GOES USERS CONFERENCE
October 2, 2002
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October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
Operational Space Based Systems
LOWER STRATOSPHERE
TROPOSPHERE
NEAR SURFACE
*** Sea surface temperature: 0.4 to 0.8oC increase since the late 19th century
* Global ocean (to 300m depth) heat content increase since 1950s equal to 0.04oC/decade
*** Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century
** Land night time air temperature increasing at twice the rate of daytime temperatures since 1950
* Lake and river ice retreat since the late 19th century (2 week decrease in ice duration)
*** Land air temperatures: 0.4 to 0.8oC increase since late 19th century
*** Increase in freeze-free season over much of the mid to high-latitude region
** Arctic sea ice: summer thickness decrease of 40% and 10 to 15% decrease in extent during spring and summer since 1950s? Antarctic sea ice: no significant change since 1978
** N.H. spring snow cover extent: since 1987, 10% below 1966 to 1986 mean
* 1990s warmest decade of the millennium and 1998 warmest year for at least the Northern Hemisphere** Marine air temperature: 0.4 to 0.7oC increase since late 19th century
Upper ** Little to no change since 1979
** 0.0 to 0.2oC increase since 1979 - satellites & balloons** 0.2 to 0.4oC increase since about 1960
Low - to - Mid
** Lower stratosphere: 0.5 to 2.5oC decrease since 1979
O C E A N L A N D O C E A N
Red: GOES observations potential
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Tem perature Ind ica tors IPC C (2001)
Liklihood:*** Virtually certain (probability > 99%)*** Very likely (probability > 90% but < 99%)*** Likely (probability > 66% but < 90%) ? Ledium likelihood (probability > 33% but < 66%)
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October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
Operational Space Based Systems
LOWER STRATOSPHERE
TROPOSPHERE
NEAR SURFACE
** No widespread changes in tropical storm frequency / intensity during the 20th century
** 2 to 4% increase in the frequency of heavy precipitation events in the N. Hemisphere since 1950
* Widespread significant increases in surface water vapor in the N. Hemisphere, 1975 to 1995
* No systematic large-scale change in tornadoes, thunder-days, hail
** 5 to 10% increase in mid-latitudes* 2 to 3 % decrease in sub-tropics* 2 to 3 % increase in tropics
Upper troposphere:
Troposphere:Water Vapor
* 20% water vapor increase since 1980 (above 18 km)
O C E A N L A N D O C E A N
Red: GOES observations potential
Hydrological and Storm-Related Ind icators IPC C (2001)
* No significant global trends since 1980; 15% increase in tropics (10oN to 10oS)* Many regions with increases since about 1960
* 2% increase in total cloud amount over land during the 20th century
? No consistent 20th century change in extra-tropical storm frequency / intensity20th century
land surfacerainfall
Liklihood:*** Virtually certain (probability > 99%)*** Very likely (probability > 90% but < 99%)*** Likely (probability > 66% but < 90%) ? Medium likelihood (probability > 33% but < 66%)
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October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
GCOS Satellite Climate Monitoring Principles
Minimize orbit drift
Ensure sufficient overlap
Replace prior to failure
Rigorous pre-launchcalibration
Adequate on-boardcalibration
Operational production ofpriority climate products
Facilitate access to products,metadata, and raw data
Continue baseline instrumentobservations ondecommissioned satellites
Need in situ baselineobservations
Real-time monitoring of network performance
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October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
New approach for real time management of climate data
Observations & Metadata
Climate Quality
Products
Stewardship Teams
Analyses and QC
Feedbacks
Reprocessing and
Reanalyses
Archives
Benefits• Rapid feedback to observing system• Data prepared for prediction and analysis• Model-data synthesis on operational basis• Simple straight forward data access
NOAA Scientific Data Stewardship
Network Performance Monitoring Climate Data Records
• End-to-end accountability of data—Spatial and temporal sampling—Time dependent biases—Metadata—Reprocessing for CDRs
• Enable and facilitate future research• Safeguard interests of future generations
Climate Analyses
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GCOSprinciples
October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
Improved Pre-Launch and In Orbit Calibration of GOES Is Essential
• Precise matches with in situ sea surface temperature show bias in diurnal cycle – largely due to GOES calibration
• This is partially caused by ‘midnight effect’ due to solar heating of instruments (esp. in 12 micron window)
• Problem larger than originally thought
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GCOSprinciples
October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
Continuous Monitoring of Surface Skin Temperature – Maximum and Minimum• Nighttime minimums show heat
island and urban/rural differences
• Diurnal range related to evapotranspiration and summer heat wave stress
• Frost area identification for targeted mosquito/west nile abatement
Courtesy UAH/GHCC
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Application:
October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center
Energy Application - Solar Insolation for Solar Power
• Solar insolation is reliably obtained from GOES
• New GOES Active Archive will allow access to recent, and eventually the entire, GOES archive
• GOES Scientific Stewardship will improve quality control, calibration, etc.
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Application:
October 2, 2002 National Climatic Data Center 9