Oklahoma Agricultural Land Value Update

Roger Sahs, Extension SpecialistOSU Department of Agricultural Economics

OK Land Values by Region, 2013*PanhandleTracts 23Size 763$/Acre $790% Chg -2.3

West-NorthwestTracts 140Size 180$/Acre $1,529% Chg +16.7

North CentralTracts 177Size 133$/Acre $1,952% Chg +21.4

NortheastTracts 328Size 156$/Acre $1,823% Chg +11.6

East-NortheastTracts 43Size 183$/Acre $1,925% Chg +5.3

South CentralTracts 102Size 209$/Acre $1,750% Chg +11.2

SoutheastTracts 252Size 294 $/Acre $1,696% Chg +9.7

State AveragesTracts 1,202Size 205$/Acre $1,705% Chg +16.2

SouthwestTracts 137Size 188$/Acre $1,354% Chg +15.5

*Tracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre

District2013 One Year

Change3 Year

Change10 Year Change

$/ac Percent Change

Panhandle 790 -2.3 38.1 132.9

West-NW 1,529 16.7 53.0 204.8

Southwest 1,354 15.5 36.9 170.4

NC-Central 1,952 21.4 47.1 122.2

South Central

1,750 11.2 18.2 97.2

Northeast 1,823 11.6 13.5 99.9

East-NE 1,925 5.3 10.4 67.8

Southeast 1,696 9.7 21.0 121.7

OK Crop 1,955 24.8 61.3 173.9

OK Pasture 1,747 15.5 21.6 106.3

Oklahoma 1,705 16.2 28.1 118.4

Recent Trends in Oklahoma Land Values

Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues

Oklahoma Cropland vs Pastureland Prices*

Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues

Upward but not steady climb in values.

“Boom to Bust” was only 30 years ago.

Major increase in values in recent years especially cropland.

*Cropland and pasture tracts defined as having 85%+ cropland and pasture utilization, respectively.

Oklahoma Cropland and Pastureland Prices Nominal vs Inflation Adjusted (base year 2013)

Cropland

Pasture

Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues

1973-1975 Average ValueTracts >= 40 Acres and <= $3000/Acre

Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues

2011-2013 Average ValueTracts >= 40 Acres and <= $6000/Acre

Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues

County, Regional, and Oklahoma Comparisons

Source: www.agecon.okstate.edu/oklandvalues

Key Land drivers looking ahead…

Recent commodity prices and farm incomes

Interest rate levels Financial health of current buyers

Non-irrigated Cropland Value and Wheat Revenue in Oklahoma

USDA/NASS data

Correlation = .77

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140

50

100

150

200

250

300

-

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Wheat revenue Linear (Wheat revenue) Dry cropland value

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Source: KC Federal Reserve Bank, August 2014

Debt levels are still low….

Source: Daily Oklahoman (Newsok.com), June 2014

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Other Resources

• Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank– http://www.kc.frb.org/– Choose Ag in Economy section, then Current Survey

• USDA Ag Land Value Data and Reports– http://www.nass.usda.gov/– Choose Economics and Prices Link, then Agricultural Land

Values in Reports section