On-going research in support of science-policy interfacing -WG Climate Change & WFD

Looking into the future of water in a changing climate

(without a crystal ball)

Ana Iglesias, UPM, Spain, Strategic Coordination Group, EC, Brussels, 8 November 2011

2Source> Highnoon project

Wat

er D

irect

ors

Stra

tegi

c co

-ord

inati

on g

roup

CIS-SPI

Art. 21 Com-

mittee

WG A Ecological status

JRC, DE, UK

WG E Chemical aspects

EC, JRC, IT, FR, SE

WG D ReportingEC, EEA, FR

WG C Groundwater

EC, AT

WG F FloodsEC, IE

WFD and Agriculture

FR, UK

Climate change and WFD

DE, ECWater scarcity and drought

IT, FR, ES

Stak

ehol

ders

, NG

O’s,

Res

earc

hers

, Exp

erts

, etc

.

Established working groups

Temporary working groups

6

climate and CO2 changes

water availability

land productivity

technology

development

population

trade, pricesuncertainty discount rate

A view of the problem from the academic side

Research questions about

the future

Knowledge needed

Support to policy

Models, Impacts,

forecasting

Adaptive capacity

Adaptation and policy

7

How can water deal with an uncertain future?

How does vulnerability and disparities respond to this uncertain future?

How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks?

Global projections of water availability (EU, Med)

Regional adaptive capacity index values and drivers of inequality

Assessment and strategy planning process, RBMP

Research questions about

the future

Knowledge needed

Support to policy

Models, Impacts,

forecasting

Adaptive capacity

Adaptation and policy

8

How can water deal with an uncertain future?

How does vulnerability and disparities respond to this uncertain future?

How do we prioritise adaptation to overcome the resulting risks?

12 projects provide policy

support

WASSERMedHIGHNOON

enviroGRIDS

12

Agreement on the problem … limited policy assessment

13…. and the world

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“Knowing is not enough; we must apply.Willing is not enough; we must do.”

Goethe (1749-1832)

151 issue: how?

natural water resources

regulation infrastructure

water availability

non-conventionalresources

Policy

nature non-nature uses

water recycling

Policy

essentialproductivePolicy

Policy

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A: Demand manag

B: Supply manag: regulation

C: Supply manag: additional resources (i.e., water re-use)

D: Demand manag: efficiency manag, communication and education

B, D

B

A

A, C, D

Change (A2-control) in mean annual runoff

Change (A2-control) in water availability guarantying

unrestricted urban demand

Effect of policy measures on supply management on water

availability (A2 scenario)

Effect of policy measures on demand management on water

availability (A2 scenario)

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Irrigation water demand change (% of baseline) to adapt food production to climate change

0 2 10 20 30 80

A1B_av

E1_av

Ada

ptiv

e ca

paci

ty

ImpactsVery negative(more than -30%)

Very positive(more than +30%)

None(AC = 0)

Very high(AC = 1)

no risk

lowvery high

high medium

potential risk (a synthesis)

low medium high or very high

1 key issue can climate change science provide insights about the future of water availability?

3 assertions– Understanding uncertainty is useful for facing

water availability challenges– Understanding and reducing vulnerability does

not demand accurate predictions of the impacts of climate change

– It is politically difficult to justify vulnerability reduction on economic grounds

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ana.iglesias@upm.es

thank you

Presentation made at the:CIS-SPI Brainstorming meeting ,

Brussels, 7 November 2011

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