OOSCI - UNICEF DATA...on 19 January 2015 Out-of-school children: What data (visually) tells Hiro...

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OOSCIOut of School Children Initiative

What is the Out of School Children Initiative?

Who are the children out of school and where are they?

Why are these children out of

school?

How can they be brought to school

and stay there?

OOSCI was launched in 2010 by UNICEF and UIS

Why do we want ALL children in school?

Education is one of the best economic investments available with returns of $10 - $15 on the dollar

Education is associated with more peaceful communities, greater civic engagement and stronger democracies

Half of the recent reduction in maternal and infant mortality is due to more education for girls

As many as 250 million children of primary school age are failing to learn the basics

Each addition year of schooling is associated with an increase of 0.37% in GDP, rising to 1.0% with improved learning outcomes

Education is a human right. It empowers people to survive and thrive and is our most effective weapon against poverty

What does OOSCI do?

OOSCI aims to make a substantial and sustainable reduction in the number of children out of school

How much progress has been made?

• 30+ Country Studies completed

• 20+ Country Studies in the pipeline

• 7 Regional Reports published

• Global Report launched on 19 January 2015

Out-of-school children: What data (visually) tells

Hiro Hattori Data & Analytics Section

UNICEF, New York

If the world were a village of 100 childrenof primary school age…

9% of children out of schoolII

58 million

If the world were a village of 100 adolescentsof lower secondary school age…

17% of adolescents out of schoolII

63 million

The global trend of OOSC

The global trend of OOSC

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Need another 200 years!

MDG 1Poverty Rate

MDG 1Stunting

MDG 4U5MR

MDG 2Out-of-school Rate

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Val

ue

rela

tive

to

19

90

(1

99

0 =

10

0)

Progress of MDG Indicators, Relative Change 1990-2012

Stagnation of education MDG alarming!

MDG 1Poverty Rate

MDG 1Stunting

MDG 4U5MR

MDG 2Out-of-school Rate

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Val

ue

rela

tive

to

19

90

(1

99

0 =

10

0)

Progress of MDG Indicators, Relative Change 1990-2012

Central and Eastern Europe

East Asia and the Pacific

Latin America & the Caribbean

Sub-Saharan Africa

Southern Asia

0

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Number of out-of-school children by region, 2000-2012

SSA and SA are main drivers of stagnation.

Why has the progress stalled in recent years?

Economic growth has slowed down since 2008.

World

Sub-Saharan Africa

South Asia

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

%GDP growth (annual %), 2000-2013

Increased cases of emergencies and humanitarian crisis.

Majority of countries with high OOS rate are conflict-affected.

Existing data do not support conflict hypothesis.

Conflict-affected countries

Non conflict-affected countries

-

10,000,000

20,000,000

30,000,000

40,000,000

50,000,000

60,000,000

70,000,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Number of out-of-school children of primary school age, 2002-2012

-1,500,000 -1,000,000 -500,000 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000

Pakistan

Mexico

Morocco

Ghana

Niger

Algeria

Russian Federation

Ukraine

Burkina Faso

Lao PDR

Eritrea

Turkey

Colombia

South Africa

United States of America

Indonesia

Nigeria

Change in number of out-of-school children between 2007 and 2012

Performance of big countries affect global trends.

World

East Asia and the Pacific

Latin America & the Caribbean

Southern Asia

Sub-Saharan Africa

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

130

140

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Val

ue

rela

tive

to

20

00

(2

00

0 =

10

0)

Primary school age population, index of change, 2000-2012

Rapid population growth in sub-Saharan Africa

Faster growth in school enrolment needed.

Primary school age population

Primary school enrolment

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary school age population and enrolment, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2012

Primary school age population

Primary school enrolment

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary school age population and enrolment, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2012

Primary school age population

Primary school enrolment

60,000,000

70,000,000

80,000,000

90,000,000

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary school age population and enrolment, Sub-Saharan Africa, 2000-2012

School enrolment has stagnated since 2007.

Primary school enrolment

Primary school age population

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

160,000,000

170,000,000

180,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary school age population and enrolment, Southern Asia, 2000-2012

Primary school age population

Primary school enrolment

100,000,000

110,000,000

120,000,000

130,000,000

140,000,000

150,000,000

160,000,000

170,000,000

180,000,000

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Primary school age population and enrolment, Southern Asia, 2000-2012

“Business as usual” wouldn’t work to reach the hardest to reach.

“Build it, they will come” optimism won’t work any more.

Where are the world’s 58 million out of school

children?

All countries

Nigeria

Democratic Republic of the Congo

Pakistan

Sudan

Afghanistan

Ethiopia

Philippines

Indonesia

India

United States

OOSC > 0.5 million

OOSC > 0.5 million

OOSC rate > 20%

Nigeria

PakistanDemocratic Republic of

the Congo

Afghanistan

Sudan

Somalia

Eritrea

South Sudan

Liberia

Guyana

Equatorial Guinea

Djibouti

OOSC rate > 20%

High proportions and numbers of OOSC concentrate in

Horn of Africa and Western and Central Africa.

OOSC rate > 20%

Which children are out of school?

Headlines 50% of out-of-school children live in countries

affected by conflict 50% of out-of-school children live in sub-Saharan

Africa 53% of out-of-school children are girls

Amongst out-of-school children 43% will never enter school 34% will enter school late 23% will drop out early

Who are these children?

More likely to be out of school:

• Children from the poorest families

• Children affected by conflict or natural disasters

• Girls

• Children with disabilities

• Children from rural areas

• Working children

• Children from minority ethnic or language groups

Why are they out of school?

Most common barriers:

• Cost of going to school

• Gender bias in culture or school system

• No schools nearby

• Schools don’t accept children with disabilities

• Security

• No jobs after finishing school

• Language of instruction

What policies can get children into school?

Profile Barrier

Girls from poor rural areas

Campaigns or legislation

Policy options

Campaigns

Cultural practices

Distance

Cultural biasChildren with disabilities

Children > 1 yrover age

Increase ECDLate entry

Accessibility Building regulations

Repetition Automatic promotion

Cost

Satellite schools

Abolish all fees

Infrastructure New funding formula

Why is equity important?

Thank you