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transcript
Optimizing equity investment under Solvency 2
Vienna, September 13th 2016
Agenda
1. Equities are attractive but expensive under Solvency 2
2. Optimized equity solutions, a strong tool for allocation
3. Amundi solution in a nutshell
4. The underlying equity process
5. The bank guarantee
6. Appendices
2
Equities are attractive in a very low yield environment
Yields by Asset Class*
* Dividend yield Next 12 months for the MSCI EMU and USA
Source: Datastream, Amundi Research data as of March 2016. 3
A challenging market and regulatory environment for insurers
1 Without taking into account a dampener effect between -10% and +10%)
2 OECD countries
39%1 for type 1 equity2
Even with the grandfathering clause, equity
will become quickly expensive
- Stress applied to grandfathered equity will
increase on a regular basis form 2016 to
2023
- Grandfathering interest disappears in 2/3
years for a very low turnover portfolio
Institutional investors are pushed to reinvest in risky assets
Especially to offer attractive yields to their own clients
Equity becoming very expensive in
terms of SCR
Continuous decreasing interest
rate environment
In order to benefit from equity risk premium and containing economic and
regulatory risk, Insurance companies are searching for optimized equity
solutions
Particular consideration given to
economic risk
In an asset and liabilities context, insurance companies pay an increased attention on the volatility of their investments
They also have to monitor tail risk
4
Agenda
1. Equities are attractive but expensive under Solvency 2
2. Optimized equity solutions, a strong tool for allocation
3. Amundi solution in a nutshell
4. The underlying equity process
5. The bank guarantee
6. Appendices
5
Managing asset allocation analysis under SII – Business case (1/4)
Market SCR Liability
SCR Interest Rates Up -16.1%
SCR Interest Rates Down 8.0%
Liability
Modified duration 18
Asset side Liability side
6
Managing asset allocation analysis under SII – Business case (2/4)
Source: Amundi
* Diversification is the SCR reduction coming the de-correlation of the different market
SCR components
Market SCR Asset / Liability
SCR Market Down 17.3%
SCR Interest Rates Down 6.9%
SCR Credit 7.3%
SCR Equity 6.0%
SCR Foreign Exchange 0.5%
SCR Real Estate 0.0%
Taking into account the regulatory and market analysis
3 main allocation changes were identified:
1. Reduce Asset/Liability duration mismatch to reduce Interest Rates SCR
2. Reallocate Credit to Equities and Real Estate to balance sources of return and risks
3. Optimize Equity allocation
6,9%
7,3%
6,0%
0,5%
SCR Interest rates
SCR Credit
SCR Equity
SCR Currencies
SCR Interest Rates
17,3%
3,4%
SCR
Diversification*
SCR Currency
Foreign Exchange
7
Managing asset allocation analysis under SII – Business case (3/4)
Asset Class Simulation 1+2+3 Current Asset
Allocation (%)
Cash 0% 0%
Total € Govt bonds 35% 17%
Including € Govies (10Y+) 26% 0%
Total Credit 48% 72%
Total Equities 11% 8%
Including equity solution
optimized under SII 5% 0%
Total Alternative Invest. 6% 3%
Including Real Estate 3% 0%
Simulation
1+2+3
Current asset
allocation
Current Yield 1.75% 1.42%
12 month expected return 4.05% 3.95%
Normalized LT return 2.47% 1.85%
Volatility 4.46% 3.17%
Modified duration 6.17 4.43
Max DrawDown -6.52% -5.65%
12 month Sharpe Ratio 0.91 1.25
Normalized LT Sharpe ratio 0.55 0.58
Market SCR 13.79% 17.31%
1- Reduction of the Asset/Liability mismatch
2- Reallocation of credit exposure
3- Equity optimization
A more efficient asset allocation under S2:
An increase of the expected return
A higher volatility on the asset side due to the increase of asset duration (ALM management)
Significant reduction of Market SCR
8
Managing asset allocation analysis under SII – Business case (4/4)
Source: Amundi
* Diversification is the SCR reduction coming the de-correlation of the different market
SCR components
Impact of the allocation changes on the Market SCR
6,1%
4,6%
5,1%
0,6%
SCR Interest rates
SCR Credit
SCR Equity
SCR Real Estate
SCR Interest Rates
13,8%
2,6%
SCR
Diversification*
6,9%
7,3%
6,0%
0,5%
17,3%
3,4%
Before change After change
Foreign Exchange
9
Agenda
1. Equities are attractive but expensive under Solvency 2
2. Optimized equity solutions, a strong tool for allocation
3. Amundi solution in a nutshell
4. The underlying equity process
5. The bank guarantee
6. Appendices
10
Strategies/techniques mitigating Equity SCR
Overview on available techniques and strategies under the standard model :
Strategies / techniques mitigating Equity SCR
Strategic participations
Equity SCR = 22% Option strategies
Upside Call option strategies based on purchasing call options
Equity SCR ~ 10% (1)
Put Option hedging strategies based on buying long dated put options
Equity SCR ~ 22% (1)
Explicit guarantee (CPPI)
Equity SCR = max 20%
11
Combining cautious equity process and optimized protection under Solvency 2
Insurance Eurozone Equities
Expertise
Guarantee Expertise Dynamic rebalancing Strategy
An innovative strategy combining cautious equity investment process - seeking
risk/return optimization - and bank guarantee
Benefit from dividends and
equity return
Dynamic risk management
strategy mitigating markets
drawdown effects and SCR
equity
Amundi formal guarantee (A+
rated)
Amundi AM Multi-expertise Solution:
Amundi Eurozone equity solution with a bank guarantee
12
Main caracteristics of Amundi solution
Performance Engine
(Amundi AM Insurance Eurozone equity process)
Dynamic allocation between the
assets based on a risk budget
approach
Non Risk Assets
(money market & short term rate
instruments)
Guarantee
3
1
2 A solution dedicated to European
insurance companies combining:
An exposure mainly on Eurozone equities1
A formal bank guarantee of 80% of capital to
reduce SCR Equity
- 80% of capital protection on a yearly rolling
basis
- Bank guarantee granted by Amundi (A+ rated by
Fitch Ratings)
- Application of the CPPI methodology by Amundi
AM
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A leading equity investment solution for insurers (1)
Better Sharpe ratio than the EuroStoxx 50 (thanks to Amundi AM Insurance Equity process) with half of the Capital Charge
In conclusion, by combining financial market and regulatory efficiency, Amundi AM’s equity solution is an effective way to optimize insurer’s equity allocation and capital charge: Increase the expected return of
the asset allocation with the same level of Market SCR
Reduce the Market SCR with the same expected return
(*) guarantee = 80% Max daily NAV over 1 year
(d) daily, (m) monthly, (q) quarterly
Source: Amundi AM, data as of July 2016,
Period: 31/12/2009 - 31/07/2016
Amundi Eurozone
Equity process
Euro Stoxx 50 Index
(NR)
Amundi Eurozone Equity
process + guarantee*
Euro Stoxx 50 Index
(NR) + guarantee*
Total return 50.9% 24.4% 21.0% -1.9%
Annualized return 6.4% 3.4% 2.9% -0.3%
Volatility (m) 14.2% 16.6% 12.1% 12.9%
Max Drawdown (d) -28.7% -33;3% -21.9% -33;2%
Average SCR (q) 37.8% 37.8% 20.0% 20.0%
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A leading equity investment solution for insurers (2)
Of the 83 tracks of 5 years periods, beginning every Thursday since the launch dof the Eurozone Equity process, the combination with the guarantee would have enabled to cap the SCR at 20%, while offering ab average outperformance of 27 bp vs. The Euro Stoxx 50 and for a weakest average volatility.
Of the 83 tracks , the Eurozone Equity process with guarantee outperformed the Euro Stoxx 50 in 69 % of cases (57/83)
(*) guarantee = 80 % max of the daily NAV over a rolling year
Source: Amundi AM, data as of en of July 2016
83 simulations of 5 years periods, beginning every Thursday, from
31/12/2009 to 28/07/2011
Amundi Eurozone
Equity Process
Euro Stoxx 50
Amundi Eurozone
Equity Process + guarantee*
Euro Stoxx 50 +
garantee
Average annualised performance over 5 years
8.4% 6.2% 6.5% 4.8%
Average annualised volatility for each period
18.3% 21.8% 13.2% 15.7%
0 1
6
9 10
22 22
7
5
1
0
5
10
15
20
25
-2,0% -1,5% -1,0% -0,5% 0,0% 0,5% 1,0% 1,5% 2,0% 2,5%
Fre
qu
en
cy
Outperformance
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Agenda
1. Equities are attractive but expensive under Solvency 2
2. Optimized equity solutions, a strong tool for allocation
3. Amundi solution in a nutshell
4. The underlying equity process
5. The bank guarantee
6. Appendices
16
Proven track record
Source: Amundi AM, GIPS as of 31/07/2016. Given for illustrative purposes only, may
change without prior notice.
*Annualized volatility on a monthly basis.
An investment process combining:
A better return than the underlying equity
market: 50.9% vs 24.4% since inception
A portfolio profile less volatile, more
defensive (beta =0.83) and more resilient
in large market drops (max drawdown)
Since inception (31/12/2009 - 31/07/2016) GIPS Composite Euro Zone Equity Market
(EuroStoxx 50 NR)
Cumulated return 50.9% 24.4%
Annualized return 6.4% 3.4%
Annualized volatility* 14,1% 16.5%
Risk adjusted return 0.44 0.19
Equity market beta 0.83
Max Drawdown (on a monthly basis) -23.3 % -25.9 %
Time to recovery (in months) 20 20
17
Consistent track record
Source: Amundi AM, GIPS as of July 31st 2016.
A track record reflecting both an active management and the “insurance” investment style (the volatility
of GIPS composite is systematically below that of the market)
The average holding period per stock is close to 2.5 years
31/07/2016 GIPS Composite Euro Zone Equity Market
Annualized return Annualized volatility Annualized return Annualized volatility
1 year -8.42 14.21 -14.46 20.33
2 years 5.69 14.31 0.68 17.63
3 years 9.15 12.76 5.45 15.70
4 years 12.08 12.02 9.50 14.80
5 years 7.69 14.12 5.44 16.66
6 years 7.32 14.15 4.63 16.48
Since Inception 6.45 14.20 -14.46 20.33
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Investment philosophy and process: Quality & Visibility
Investment themes and industry selection: looking for long term trends1
– Amundi AM macro-economic and asset class inputs
– Fundamental analysis, searching for long term trends industry by industry
Company selection: capturing the most attractive risk/return trade-off2
– Selection of companies with attractive total return (dividend and stock increase potential) and moderate
downside risk
– Supported by fundamental analysis to assess business model risk: good management, sound balance sheet
and solid growth prospects (input from our 17 Buy-Side Analysts covering 350 companies3)
Portfolio construction: a conviction based approach
– A benchmark-free construction excluding sectors/stocks encapsulating a strong intrinsic risk (even if there is an
appealing short term upside potential)
– Our portfolio is well diversified, based on top-down convictions and maximizes the risk adjusted return of the
equity market (Sharpe ratio)2
1. Past market trends are not reliable indicators of future ones. 2.The Fund does not offer any
performance or full capital guarantee.
3. Source: Amundi AM, data as of December 2015, given for indicative purposes only, may
change without prior notice.
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Amundi AM’s macro scenario
Strategic views: Identification of long term
investment themes and sector trends
Tactical views: Regular review of each theme
and sector allocation according to the changes
operated within our macro scenario
A top down approach
ECONOMISTS AND
STRATEGISTS TEAM (11 people)
Stocks are selected based on fundamental
analysis (business model, quality of the
management, financial solidity)
Supported by a valuation provided by our Buy-
Side analysts team
Regular review of the investment case
EQUITY ANALYSTS
TEAM (17 analysts)
Bottom up approach = 30%
Top down approach = 70%
Our top down approach allows us to identify long term investment themes and forge sectorial views
We select 50/60 stocks through a fundamental approach that fits our themes (bottom up)
Past market trends are not reliable indicators of future ones. For further details regarding the investment policy,
please refer to the Prospectus and the KIID of the Fund.
Source: Amundi AM, data as of December 2015, given for indicative purposes only, may change without prior
notice.
20
31/12/2009 – 31/07/2016 Insurance Equity
Portfolio Euro Stoxx 50 Attribution Analysis
Sector Average
weight
Total
Return
Contrib. to
Return Average
weight
Total
Return
Contrib. to
Return
Sector
allocation
Effect
Selection
Effect Total
Total 100.0 52.0 52.0 100.0 24.4 24.4 14.9 12.7 27.6
Consumer Discretionary 14.7 109.1 13.9 9.4 93.2 7.3 3.3 0.8 4.2
Consumer Staples 9.3 131.4 10.0 10.0 126.2 10.4 -1.0 0.1 -0.9
Energy 8.2 32.4 3.0 8.9 14.7 2.3 0.7 -0.1 0.6
Financials 14.5 -4.8 -3.5 26.2 -16.2 -8.2 6.7 2.2 8.9
Health Care 18.2 104.9 17.4 9.2 81.8 7.7 1.2 4.9 6.1
Industrials 16.2 98.8 11.7 11.0 61.9 5.6 1.4 4.5 6.0
Information Technology 3.6 40.3 1.2 4.8 44.2 2.5 -1.0 -0.0 -1.0
Materials 6.1 49.8 2.7 6.4 34.7 2.4 -0.2 0.9 0.7
Telecommunication Services 6.1 -3.0 -2.5 6.8 7.3 -1.2 0.0 -0.4 -0.4
Utilities 3.2 2.9 -2.0 7.2 -27.3 -4.5 3.7 -0.2 3.5
Amundi AM insurance equity process: performance analysis*
The performance attribution analysis demonstrates
The value added of our investment process: +27.6% since inception
The relevance of our top down approach: +14.9% came from sector allocation
*Based on front office data (positions and price) excluding cash position. That explains the difference between the
performance of the GIPS composite and the performance attribution.
Past market trends are not reliable indicators of future ones. Information given for indicative purposes only, may change
without prior notice.
21
Agenda
1. Equities are attractive but expensive under Solvency 2
2. Optimized equity solutions, a strong tool for allocation
3. Amundi solution in a nutshell
4. The underlying equity process
5. The bank guarantee
6. Appendices
22
Bank Guarantee: what pay off?
Guarantee managed by Amundi AM through a dynamic CPPI process
No purely algorithmic CPPI:
– A dynamic process based on a Variable Loss Parameter approach
– An approach which is less costly than the traditional CIB Approach*
1 year rolling guarantee: 80% of the Max NAV over the previous year
– Each NAV established on a day D (NAVD) is guaranteed to be at least equal to 80% of the Max NAV reached
over the preceding year
– The investor is thus guaranteed that for the 1-year period following date D, any future NAV will be at least equal
to 80% of NAVD
– At the end of this 1-year period following date D, the level of the guarantee can decrease:
This would occur if all the NAV between NAVD+1 and NAVD+366 are < NAVD
This potential decrease of the guarantee level, also called « reset » is linked to this rolling feature of the guarantee
* See Appendix for more details.
The Fund does not offer a performance or full capital guarantee. For further details, please refer to the
Prospectus and the KIID of the Fund.
Even in case of sudden, material and lasting Equity market downturns,
thanks to the decrease of the guarantee level, the product will be re-
exposed to Equity at the latest 1 year after.
23
Key points - Bank guarantee
In economic terms, a bank guarantee is an efficient way to
– Define explicitly the risk budget of an equity portfolio through a maximum capital loss
– Set and reset the guarantee level in line with our objectives as well as the insurance company’s requirements
– Manage the downside risk coming from the equity market
In regulatory terms, a Max yearly NAV guarantee allows to
– Reduce the equity stress under Solvency II to the guarantee level
– Set the maximum capital charge*
Bank guarantee does not imply regulatory constraint impacts on the underlying equity process
The guarantor uses market (vs regulatory) inputs to calibrate its risk model. Then, the guarantor's
risk model evolves with market changes and takes into account diversification (e.g. : correlation
between OCDE countries) and economic specificities (e.g. : Euro Stoxx 50 vs defensive process) that
the Standard model doesn’t recognize.
*To be fully recognized under Solvency II a guarantee must apply for at least a 12 months period, otherwise the
effect of the guarantee is reduced pro rata temporis.
The Fund does not offer a performance or full capital guarantee. For further details, please refer to the
Prospectus and the KIID of the Fund.
Bank guarantee is a flexible and efficient tool to manage
market risk and regulatory capital charge
24
Bank guarantee: regulatory requirements and impact on SCR
Regulatory requirements under Solvency II
– The guarantor must have a credit quality equivalent to “Investment Grade”
– The guarantee must be legally effective
Amundi group would be the guarantor
– Amundi Group is authorized to issue financial guarantees
– Amundi Group is rated A+ by Fitch Ratings
The guarantee generates some SCR “counterparty risk”
– Additional default SCR is small, whatever the dampener’s level due to guarantor's rating
Source: Amundi AM, data as of December 2015. Given for illustrative purposes only, may change without prior notice.
Level of guarantee No guarantee 80% 85% 90%
SCR Equity (dampener = 0) 39% 20% 15% 10%
SCR default 0.00% 1.15% 1.45% 1.75%
Equity SCR + default SCR taking into account
a correlation of 25%
39.0% 20.3% 15.4% 10.6%
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Eurozone equities pocket
Eurozone Equity
Investments Team dedicated to Insurance
process
Bank guarantee: how does it work on a daily basis?
Portfolio governance
– The Hybrid Structured Fund Management Team is the lead portfolio
manager. As so, it is responsible for the over portfolio management
and the bank guarantee monitoring and management. It is also in
charge of managing money market instruments.
– The Eurozone Equity Investments Team dedicated to Insurance
process is responsible for the equity investment management.
Guarantee management
– On a daily basis, the Hybrid Structured Fund Management
computes the maximum equity exposure of the portfolio to comply
with the level of the guarantee. If required, it sends instructions to
the Investment Team dedicated to Insurance process to adjust the
equity exposure.
– The Investment Team dedicated to Insurance implements the
Hybrid Structured Fund Management’s instructions by increasing or
decreasing equity investments without changing the structure of
equity portfolio.
Defined by Hybrid Structured
Fund Management
Money market pocket
Hybrid Structured Fund Management
Lead Portfolio Manager:
Hybrid Structured Fund Management
Information given for indicative purposes only, may be changed without prior notice. For further details, please refer to the Prospectus and the KIID of the Fund.
26
A stringent and disciplined guarantee management process
Objectives
– Compute, on a daily basis, the maximum equity exposure (capped at 100%) compliant with the
guarantee level
– Implement adequate equity exposure
Control of the
portfolio valuation
(equity and money
market Instruments)
Compute the internal
risk parameter of the
entire equity portfolio
Reassess the risk
budget
(Gap between NAV and
guaranteed floor)
Rebalancing (if needed) between equity and
money market instruments to ensure that
portfolio risk parameter < risk budget
Reassess internal risk parameters
and correlations based on internal
models
Control that the equity exposure is
compliant with the guarantee level
Daily Monthly
Maintain internal models regarding internal risk
parameter and correlation calculations
Valuation
Agent
Amundi Guarantee management Amundi AM Risk department
Daily
Daily
Daily
Information given for indicative purposes only, may be changed without prior notice. For further details, please refer to the Prospectus and the KIID of the Fund.
27
Agenda
1. Equities are attractive but expensive under Solvency 2
2. Optimized equity solutions, a strong tool for allocation
3. Amundi solution in a nutshell
4. The underlying equity process
5. The bank guarantee
6. Appendices
28
Process back test
Source: Amundi AM, data from 31/12/2009 to 31/07/2016.
Past market trends are no reliable indicator of future ones.
29
Process back test without guarantee reset
Source: Amundi AM, data from 31/12/2009 to 31/07/2016.
Past market trends are no reliable indicator of future ones.
30
Comparison with option based strategies
Period: 31/12/2009 - 31/03/2016
Amundi Eurozone
Equity process
Euro Stoxx 50 Index (NR)
Amundi Eurozone Equity process +
guarantee
Euro Stoxx 50 Index (NR) + guarantee
Euro Stoxx 50 Index (NR) + put option
Total return 47,1% 22,2% 30,2% -3,1% 4,7%
Annualized return 6,4% 3,3% 4,3% -0,5% 0,7%
Volatility 14,4% 16,8% 13,3% 14,4% 12,0%
Max Drawdown (daily) -28,7% -33,3% -23,1% -35,7% -22,9%
Average SCR (quaterly) 38,0% 38,0% 20,0% 20,0% 18,4%
(*) guarantee = 80% Max NAV of 4 last quarter
(d) daily, (m) monthly, (q) quarterly
Source: Amundi AM, data as of March 2016, given for illustrative purposes only, may change
without prior notice. The Fund does not offer a performance or full capital guarantee.
31
Disclaimer
This material is not deemed to be communicated to, or used by, any person, qualified investor or not, from any country or jurisdiction which laws or regulations would prohibit such
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such projections, valuations and statistical analyses should not be viewed as facts and should not be relied upon as an accurate prediction of future events. There is no guarantee
that any targeted performance will be achieved.
The provided information is not guaranteed to be accurate, exhaustive or relevant: although it has been prepared based on sources that Amundi Asset Management considers to
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The information contained in this document is deemed accurate as at August 2016.
32
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