Optimizing Installed Capacity for Optimizing Installed Capacity for Small Hydro on Ungauged StreamsSmall Hydro on Ungauged Streams

ByBy

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Sr. Advisor, ConsultantSr. Advisor, Consultant

cddhoward@entirety.cacddhoward@entirety.ca

How Accurate is the Estimated Energy How Accurate is the Estimated Energy Potential?Potential?

Optimizing Installed Capacity for Optimizing Installed Capacity for Small Hydro on Ungauged StreamsSmall Hydro on Ungauged Streams

Is the site a good investment opportunity, Is the site a good investment opportunity,

or a risky venture?or a risky venture?

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

How Accurate is the Hydrology?How Accurate is the Hydrology?

Suppose a Regression Approach is Used.Suppose a Regression Approach is Used.

Hydrology of Ungauged StreamsHydrology of Ungauged Streams

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Hydrology of Ungauged StreamsHydrology of Ungauged Streams

Prorate data from a nearby stream that Prorate data from a nearby stream that seems to be similar.seems to be similar.

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

S and K Rivers, 1971

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

1 21 41 61 81 101 121 141 161 181 201 221 241 261 281 301 321 341 361

Day of Year

Dim

ensi

on

less

Dis

char

ge

K River

S River

Average

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Dimensionless Daily Discharge, 1971

y = 0.9821x + 0.0179

R2 = 0.8673Correlation Coef. = 0.9313

0.00

1.00

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00

K River

S R

ive

r

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Energy production depends on how Energy production depends on how much of the streamflow will be used, much of the streamflow will be used,

and how much will be spilled.and how much will be spilled.

Energy from Ungauged StreamsEnergy from Ungauged Streams

Accuracy of the energy estimate Accuracy of the energy estimate depends on installed capacity.depends on installed capacity.

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Energy Comparison2 Mw Plant

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25001

21

41

61

81

10

1

12

1

14

1

16

1

18

1

20

1

22

1

24

1

26

1

28

1

30

1

32

1

34

1

36

1

Day of the Year

Kil

low

att

-Da

ys

Regression

hydrology Measured

hydrology

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Annual Energy. Percent Errors

from Hydrology Regression

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

0.00 0.50 1.00 1.50 2.00 2.50 3.00

Average Annual Mw

Pe

rce

nt

Err

or

Look into using the hydrologic model in IMPLook into using the hydrologic model in IMP

Optimizing Installed Capacity for Small Optimizing Installed Capacity for Small Hydro on Ungauged StreamsHydro on Ungauged Streams

Hydrology should not be “assumed”Hydrology should not be “assumed”

Hydrology is a basic requirement.Hydrology is a basic requirement.

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

The Integrated Method for PowerThe Integrated Method for Power

IMPIMP

IMP considers:IMP considers:

•Elevation rangesElevation ranges

•Topographic differencesTopographic differences

•Climate differences with locations and elevationClimate differences with locations and elevation

•Forest cover and soilsForest cover and soils

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.

Thank you for listeningThank you for listening.

Charles D. D. Howard, P. Eng.