Post on 03-Jan-2016
transcript
Brazil Random Facts
• Portuguese Empire
• Almost 200 million
• Bigger than the lower 48 of the US
• Invented the airplane?
Getulio Vargas
• 1930-1945– Gaucho– Centralizes Brazilian poltics– Increase state intervention in economy– Estado Novo– First mass-based politics
Second Republic, 1945-1964
• Democratic politics
• ISI policies and related crises
• Juscelino Kubitschek, President 1956-1960.
The Brazilian Political Systemin the Second Republic
• Weak President– Majority veto override– No decree power
• Complex Legislative System– Multiparty, high fragmentation.– Party-Switching– Open-list proportional representation
Political System, Cont
• Net Result:– Executive leadership difficult– Pork and Vote-buying an essential part of
legislative coalitions.
Growing tensions
• Economic problems associated with ISI
• Stabilization program would alienate workers and left.
• Polarization
• Military Thinking: ESG– US helped to set up in 1949
Janio Quadros
• Janio Quadros– Elected 1960– V-P Joao Goulart – Brilliant or crazy?– Resigns hoping for more power
Joao Goulart, V-P
• Will he become President?– In communist China at the time of the coup– Military despises him– He flies home indirectly (China-Paris-RS)
• Solution: Parliamentary system?– Weak President (Goulart)– Tancredo Neves, Prime Minister
Goulart• Regains full Presidential powers via
plebiscite, 1963• Challenges
– Economic– Military Politics– Rural mobilization– Stalemate
• Coup d’Etat, 1964– Was it really a coup?
New form of Authoritarianism
• Military Governments in Brazil– Previously - clean house and leave– This time…. they stayed until 1985
• “Bureaucratic Authoritarian” Regimes– Authoritarian– Bureaucratic - apolitical technocrats given
control.
Brazil’s military government• Pseudo-Democracy
• Brutal - but not Argentina, not Chile?
• Castello Branco 64-67– 1966 Elections and political parties– ARENA and the MDB
• Costa e Silva 67-69 (hard-liner)– Repression of labor and politicians– AI-5– Insurrection, crushed by 1973
Military Government, Cont1970 1974
Inflation 18.2 31.5
EconomicGrowth
8.8 9.8
World Cup Brazil West Germany
Election Results ARENA MDB GainsSeats
Central Features of the New Republic
• The Party System– Open-List Proportional Representation with
low barriers to entry.
• Inequality, clientelism, and patronage politics.
• A Strong Presidency
• Federalism?
1. Brazil’s Party System• Mass partisanship is extremely low, in contrast to
other countries.
• Many parties earn seats in Congress – usually more than 20.
• Politician’s success has little relation to their partisanship.
• Correlation between President and Deputy vote shares is ….. 0
• Why?
Open List Proportional Representation
X Y Z
Joao 25 Miriam 11 Dilma 14
Marta 3 Wigold 10 Gisela 13
Gabriela 2 Maria 7 Roberto 5
Sebastian 1 Jose 6 World Peace 2
Fernando 1 Itamar 2 Ulysses 1
32 36 31
Impact of the Party System
• President’s party never has a majority. Lucky to get 20% of the seats in Congress.
• The other 80% of the seats are held by the other 20 or so parties.
• So how does anyone get anything done in Brazil?
• Presidency + $
2. Strong Presidency
• Executive has central role in budget, and expenditures are “optional”.
• Executive has “decree authority” – can write “medidas provisorias”, with temporary force of law.
• Result: executive forms large multi-party coalitions for governing, and uses decree authority when necessary.
3. Inequality/Poverty a prerequisite?
• Why do parties “sell out” so easily?
• Greed
• Poverty
• “When it gets dark out there, it get’s really dark”.
• Voters in many places don’t care about your stand on world peace. They just want you to get things done.
Some Perspective• The legislature is fragmented, lacks
accountability – and is largely for sale.
• The executive uses pork and decree authority to govern.
• In this sense, representation “works”. The most important votes anyone casts are for the Presidency.
• Key difference from 1946-1964: the legislature is weaker.
4. Federalism?
• Brazil is divided into 27 states plus a federal district
• Historically, state politics have spilled over into national politics
• Those influences are still present for legislators but much weaker for presidents.
• Evidence: roll-call votes, presidential tickets, and reforms.
Recent Political History
• 1985-1989: Jose Sarney (ARENA)
• 1989-1992: Fernando Collor (PRN)
• 1992-1994: Itamar Franco (PMDB)
• 1995-2002: Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB)
• 2003-2010: Luiz “Lula” da Silva (PT)
• 2011- : Dilma Rousseff (PT)
Lula: Change or more of the same?• Founding member of the Worker’s Party, 2nd grade
education, metal worker.• As President:
– Multiple corruption scandals.– Expands CCT’s to poor.– Economic boom.
• Extremely popular with poor, extremely unpopular with middle/upper
• New class cleavage or “rouba mais faz”?
New Directions• The enduring problem of race
• The racial myth in Brazil is one of equality color blind attitudes, and shared heritage.
• Brazil is more than 50% “black”
• Most of the afro-brazilians are poor. Most of the elites are white
Not a Racial Myth?
No picture White Mixed Black Japanese
Treatment .28 .18 .22 .21 .21
Control .72 .82 .78 .79 .79
n 151 160 145 152 155
But with more choices…
White Subjects Mixed Subjects Black Subjects
C. Race
White Black Diff White Black Diff White Black Diff
3 .20 .183 +.02 .20 .22 -.02 .11 .40 -.29
6 .22 .26 -.04 .23 .24 -.02 .30 .42 -.13
12 .21 .11 +.14 .19 .25 -.05 .17 .46 -.29
New Directions:Brazil’s International Future
• Still struggles with a perverse combination of pride and shame
• Desires a seat at the table (UN Sercurity Council)
• But will struggle with conflicting themes: nonalignment, anti-American, and democracy.