Post on 22-Feb-2016
description
transcript
www.marsh.com
Out of the Storm ’08September 18, 2008
Jeffrey FieldsonNashville, Tennessee
www.marsh.com
www.marsh.com
www.marsh.com
6Marsh
7Marsh
2004 Hurricane Season
8Marsh
2005 Hurricane Season
9Marsh
2006 Hurricane Season
10Marsh
2007 Hurricane Season
11Marsh
2007 Hurricanes – Dean & Felix
Only four times — in the 1960, 1961, 2005 and 2007 hurricane seasons — have multiple Category 5 hurricanes formed. Only in 2005 have more than two category 5 storms formed, and only in 2007 has more than one made landfall at category 5 strength.
12Marsh
13Marsh
14Marsh
15Marsh
16Marsh
17Marsh
18Marsh
19Marsh
20Marsh
U.S. Insured Catastrophe Losses*
$7.5
$2.7
$4.7
$22.
9$5
.5 $16.
9$8
.3$7
.4$2
.6 $10.
1$8
.3$4
.6$2
6.5
$5.9 $1
2.9 $2
7.5
$6.5
$100
.0
$61.
9
$9.2
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$12089 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
20??
*Excludes $4B-$6b offshore energy losses from Hurricanes Katrina & Rita. Note: 2001 figure includes $20.3B for 9/11 losses reported through 12/31/01. Includes only business and personal property claims, business interruption and auto claims. Non-prop/BI losses = $12.2B.Source: Property Claims Service/ISO; Insurance Information Institute
$ Billions
2006/07 were welcome respites. 2005 was by far the worst year ever for insured catastrophe losses in the US, but the worst
has yet to come.
$100 Billion CAT year is coming soon
21Marsh
Top 10 Most Costly Hurricanes in US History, (Insured Losses, $2005)
$3.5 $3.8 $4.8 $5.0 $6.6 $7.4 $7.7$10.3
$21.6
$41.1
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
Georges(1998)
Jeanne(2004)
Frances(2004)
Rita (2005)
Hugo(1989)
Ivan (2004)
Charley(2004)
Wilma(2005)
Andrew(1992)
Katrina(2005)
$ B
illio
ns
Sources: ISO/PCS; Insurance Information Institute.
Seven of the 10 most expensive hurricanes in US history occurred in the 14 months from Aug. 2004 –
Oct. 2005:
Katrina, Rita, Wilma, Charley, Ivan, Frances & Jeanne
22MarshSource: AIR Worldwide
Insured Losses: $110BEconomic Losses: $200B+
$70
$30
$5 $4 $1$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
NY NJ PA CT Other
Nightmare Scenario: Insured Property Losses for NJ/NY CAT 3/4 Storm
Total Insured Property Losses =
$110B, nearly 3 times that of
Hurricane Katrina
Distribution of Insured Property Losses,
by State, ($ Billions)
23Marsh
Track of “Long Island Express” Hurricane of 1938
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed February 4, 2006.
“Great New England Hurricane” of 1938
a.k.a.“Long Island Express” caused severe damage through much of the
Northeast.600+ Deaths$308 million
24Marsh
Storm Season of 1944: A Busy one for the Northeast
Three storms affected NY, NJ and New England in 1944, including “Great Atlantic
Hurricane”46 deaths
$100 million damage109mph gusts in Hartford
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
25Marsh
Storm Season of 1954: The Northeast Hit Again
NY/New England areas hit by Carol & Edna two
weeks apartCarol: 8-10 ft.
floodwaters in ProvidenceEdna hits Cape CodCombined: 80 deaths,
$501 million losses
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
26Marsh
Storm Season of 1960: Brenda & Donna Came to Visit
NY/New England areas were hit twice in 1960.
Donna killed 50, $387 million damage along East Coast
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
27Marsh
After a 25 Year Hiatus, Hurricane Gloria Hit in 1985
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed May 31, 2006; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
NY/New England areas were hit by Gloria 9/27/85
8 deaths$900 million damage
28Marsh
Floyd Visited in 1999, Causing $4.5 Billion in Losses
Source: WeatherUnderground.com, accessed September 16, 2007; NOAA loss & fatality figures.
NY/New England areas were hit by Floyd 9/14 – 9/17/99$4.5 B in damage US
29Marsh
30Marsh
31Marsh
More than 8,000 people were killed in the 1900 Galveston hurricane, most by the storm tide. Hurricane Camille in 1969 produced a 24-foot storm tide in Mississippi. Hurricane Hugo in 1989 generated a 20-foot storm tide in South Carolina. Hurricane Katrina in 2005 generated a 27-foot storm tide in Mississippi.
STORM TIDE FACTS
Mean Sea Level
15 ft surge17 ft storm tide
2 ft normal high tide
32Marsh
Source Date Named Storms Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
CSU Average (1950-2000) 9.6 5.9 2.3
NOAA Average (1950-2005) 11.0 6.2 2.7
Record high activity 28 15 8
Record low activity 4 2 0
CSU 8/5/2008 17 9 5
NOAA 8/7/2008 14-18 7-10 3-6
Actual activity (as of 9/16/2008) 10 5 3
33Marsh
34Marsh
Hurricane Ike Stats
Will become the third most costly hurricane in U.S. history
Was a CAT 2 storm with sustained winds of 110 mph. This was 1 mph below a CAT 3 level storm.
48 deaths confirmed in the U.S. – 80 in the Caribbean
4 million people without power after Ike made landfall
2 million residents in Houston without power as of 25 September
40,000 evacuees – sent to 250 shelters
10 inches of rain in Indiana, Illinois, Missouri. Ohio and Kentucky had CAT 1 Hurricane force winds
1.3 million homes without power in Ohio as of 25 September
600,000 customers without power in Kentucky – the largest power outage in state history
35Marsh
Hurricane Ike Stats (continued)
97.5% of oil production and 95% of natural gas production shut down
28 of 3,800 offshore platforms destroyed (64 destroyed in Rita – 44 destroyed in Katrina)
Estimated insured losses from Ike -- $16-$20 billon onshore plus $600 million to $1.5 billion for offshore assets
TWIA (Texas Wind Insurance Association) has a $370 million reserve Trust Fund – plus $1.5 billion in reinsurance. Losses to TWIA will exceed $2.2 billion or more
Ike and Gustav will not be a solvency issue for property insurers but is likely to be an “earnings” event for many insurers
Gustav hit two weeks before Ike – Gustav loss estimates exceed $4 billion