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Applications-Focused Research on Applications-Focused Research on the African Weather & Climate the African Weather & Climate
SystemsSystems
UCAR Africa Initiative Meeting, BoulderUCAR Africa Initiative Meeting, BoulderDecember 19December 19thth 2006 2006
Fredrick SemazziFredrick Semazzi[http://climlab4.meas.ncsu.edu][http://climlab4.meas.ncsu.edu]
North Carolina State UniversityNorth Carolina State University
Outline of the TalkOutline of the Talk
(i)(i) Multi-scale Modeling and Analysis of Multi-scale Modeling and Analysis of the the Variability of the African Climate – Nile Variability of the African Climate – Nile
BasinBasin
(ii)(ii) ISET Atlantic Hurricanes Research ISET Atlantic Hurricanes Research (West (West Africa)Africa)
(iii) (iii) RRelated activities and potential partners elated activities and potential partners
OVERALL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING STRATEGY OF OVERALL ANALYSIS AND MODELLING STRATEGY OF THE PROPOSED PROJECTTHE PROPOSED PROJECT
Nile Basin ClimateNile Basin Climate
Variability ProblemVariability Problem
River Nile
Lake Victoria
… … regional significance…regional significance…
The Nile Basin water The Nile Basin water supports about 300 million peoplesupports about 300 million people from 10 African countries from 10 African countries
Los Alamos (US)-March 19, 2006 (NV): Former ambassador David Shin …on the Nile basin Los Alamos (US)-March 19, 2006 (NV): Former ambassador David Shin …on the Nile basin … the … the "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave… "water war" that can clearly be seen approaching like a tidal wave…
ADDIS ABABA, Ethiopia (The Associated Press) - African countries could face water wars if the power of their mighty rivers isn't properly harnessed and shared
KAMPALA, May 4, 2006 (New Vision) : KAMPALA, May 4, 2006 (New Vision) : Uganda, 27 millionUganda, 27 million … crippling power shortages … crippling power shortages have caused daily black-outs … its hydropower capacity of have caused daily black-outs … its hydropower capacity of 380 Mega Watts (MW) on the 380 Mega Watts (MW) on the River Nile has fallen to 135 MW because of the extended regional drought. River Nile has fallen to 135 MW because of the extended regional drought.
AP Special Correspondent, Sat Dec 9: Vast African lake levels dropping fast… AP Special Correspondent, Sat Dec 9: Vast African lake levels dropping fast… at 27,000 at 27,000 square miles, the size of Irelandsquare miles, the size of Ireland, Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes — the , Victoria is the greatest of Africa's Great Lakes — the biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has biggest freshwater body after Lake Superior. And it has dropped fast, at least six feet in the dropped fast, at least six feet in the past three yearspast three years, and by as much as a , and by as much as a half-inch a dayhalf-inch a day this year…the report, by U.S.-based this year…the report, by U.S.-based Water Resources and Energy Management International… Water Resources and Energy Management International… a further dramatic drop in a further dramatic drop in Victoria's water levels might even turn off this spigot for the Nile, a lifeline for more than 100 Victoria's water levels might even turn off this spigot for the Nile, a lifeline for more than 100 million Egyptians, Sudanese and othersmillion Egyptians, Sudanese and others
CLIMATE RESEARCH can contribute to a comprehensive resolution of the threat of an CLIMATE RESEARCH can contribute to a comprehensive resolution of the threat of an international-scale water crisis among the Nile Basin region countries by clarifying the international-scale water crisis among the Nile Basin region countries by clarifying the contribution of climate variability to the regional water problemcontribution of climate variability to the regional water problem
Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam Aerial view of Nalubaale-Kiira Dam ComplexComplex: : UgandaUganda
THE AGREED CURVE THE AGREED CURVE
Dramatic Drop in Lake Dramatic Drop in Lake Victoria LevelVictoria Level ENSO-IOZMclimate variability
or excessive release?
“no trend” pre-1961
lake levels
excessive release?
Drought?
Drought …YES!Drought …YES!
Figure A–1: Actual and Agreed Curve–prescribed total releases at Nalubaale and Kiira Dams for September 2004 to early March 2006. It can be seen that the actual releases were far greater than those prescribed by the Agreed Curve. Indeed, during the period September 2004 to March 2006, the actual releases were 194% of those prescribed by the agreed curve: almost double (Daniel Kull)
Excessive Release-YES!
RegCM3-POM coupled model lake surface temperature & rainfall; Anyah & Semazzi (2006)
“no trend” pre-1961 lake
levels
97-98 El Nino
Surface temperature, RH & winds; RegCM3 model verification against MODIS & NCEP (Onol & Semazzi, 2006).
MODIS (satellite) NCEP Reanalysis
RegCM3 RCM RegCM3 RCM
1961-62IO Warming
downscaling
Lake Victoria levels; gauge at source of the River Nile & satell ite radar altimeter data from USDS/NASA/UMD at http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/cropexplorer/global_reservoir/
Water Balance model
(Tate et al, 2004)
Global NCEP January Temperature Anomaly Pattern, 2006 minus average of 2001-2005
downscaling
10.6
10.8
11
11.2
11.4
11.6
11.8
12
12.2
12.4
12.6
12.8
13
13.2
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995
modeled lake level (1 year prediction)
Actual lake level (Dec)
Lake Victoria Lake Level PredictionsLake Victoria Lake Level Predictions
Qin=Inflow
P=Precipitation over lake
E=Evaporation over lake
A=Area of the lake
(based on modified Tate et al (2004) method(based on modified Tate et al (2004) method
Drifters for surface currents (@ 2k) + boats for relocation & synoptic measurements
ADCP: Acoustic Doppler Current Profiles (3 @ $30K)
CTD: Conductivity, Temperature and Depth (3 @ 10K)
Land-based temporary meteorological stations
Preliminary Plan for Ship TransectsPreliminary Plan for Ship Transects(>2 weeks) (>2 weeks)
Ship transects
Summary of Nile Basin StudySummary of Nile Basin Study
Lake circulation is characterized by two counter-Lake circulation is characterized by two counter-rotating gyres (in both ideal and real geometry rotating gyres (in both ideal and real geometry simulations)simulations)
Coupling of the lake is important for required details Coupling of the lake is important for required details of the subcatchment temperature/rainfall required in of the subcatchment temperature/rainfall required in the calculations for the lake levels & other the calculations for the lake levels & other applicationsapplications
A multiscale approach is requiredA multiscale approach is required
Framework can play a major role in defining required Framework can play a major role in defining required model accuracymodel accuracy
NOAA-ISETInterdisciplinary Scientific Environmental Technology
Cooperative Science Center
Partner Institutions
Thrust area ISensor science and technology:Basic research,
Sensor technologydevelopment
Thrust area IIGlobal Observing systems:
numerical and physicalresearch
Thrust area IIIData mining &
Fusion and geospatial data models
Understanding Climate Change
Development of new sensors and lidars systems for more accurate climate analysis.
Development of algorithms for retrieving data from a wide range of sensor networks.
Development of web based data exploratory algorithms for determining the suitability of global data sets .Development of in-depth signal detection techniques, which exploit recent research developments in multivariate stream data mining.
Improve functionality of integrated optical sensor packages.Provide algorithms for atmospheric monitoring of traces gases. Mine multiple data sets from multiple sensor platforms.Develop methods, which combine the benefits of physical models and statistical analysis for sensor data fusion.
RESEARCH THRUST AREAS
Use high resolution imager data and historical correlationsSunphotometer c
MISSIONTrain and educate students in NOAA
scientific areas and develop technology
and analysis techniques of global
data sets for improved understanding
of climate change.
Industrial Partners Simpson Weather Associates Arete AssociatesSAS Institute Inc. Vexcel Corporation: Remote Sensing
Government Partners USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service East National Technology Support CenterBrookhaven National LaboratoryNC Department of Environment and Natural Resources Center for Geographic Information and Analysis SURA: Southeastern Universities Research Association
GOALS(1) Conduct research to develop new sensors for profiling atmospheric trace constituents and meteorological variables, water quality sensors and integrated
sensor packages designed for deployment in the economically important coastal regions.(2) Conduct research using both numerical and empirical methods on the analysis of observing systems and use remote sensing to characterize and specify
significant factors affecting tropical storms to provide better-forecast models and predictions. (3) Develop data-fusion techniques, develop sensor networks and multiagent and grid computing to support implementation of the analytic
techniques. (4) Develop capacity in research in NOAA scientific areas within the lead and partner institutions, to be able to train and educate students in NOAA scientific
areas. (5) Establish NOAA-ISET graduate and undergraduate scholarships at all partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.(6) Develop a concentration in atmospheric sciences and climate modeling within the Ph.D. program in Energy and Environmental Sciences during the first year
of the ISET Center.(7) Establish an undergraduate degree program in Earth System Science at NCA&T and some partner universities during the first year of the ISET Center.
University Partners: University of Alaska Southeast (UAS) California State University-Fresno (CSU-Fresno)City University of New York (CUNY)Fisk University (FU)University of North Carolina at Pembroke (UNCP)North Carolina State University (NCSU)University of Minnesota (UM)
Phases of Hurricane Development
Americas Phase Ocean Phase
African Phase
Inla
nd F
lood
ing P
has
e
Hurr
ican
eTr
opic
al S
torm
Trop
ical
Dep
ress
ion
East
erly
Wav
e
Dis
turb
ance
Oro
gra
phic
Cyc
longen
esis
Hurricane
TC
Depression
African Waves Landfall
??
?
Understanding Transition Understanding Transition Phases of Hurricane Phases of Hurricane
DevelopmentDevelopment
Unique contribution
?
Storm
Analysis of multi-dimensional global observing systems to identify linkages Analysis of multi-dimensional global observing systems to identify linkages among hurricane developmental phases and response to climate changeamong hurricane developmental phases and response to climate change––Diagnostic MethodsDiagnostic Methods
Study of 2005 extreme hurricane season & 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 - to Study of 2005 extreme hurricane season & 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2006 - to investigate role of the African Easterly wave activity - investigate role of the African Easterly wave activity - RegCM3.RegCM3.
WRF WRF individualindividual Hurricane simulation experiments to study the relative roles of Hurricane simulation experiments to study the relative roles of various climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions – various climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions – WRF/HYCOMWRF/HYCOM for background climatology & WRF (version with moving-nest, vortex- for background climatology & WRF (version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).tracking algorithm).
ALL-domain ALL-domain seasonalseasonal simulations to investigate the relative roles of climatic simulations to investigate the relative roles of climatic forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions forcing mechanisms over the exit and bifurcation regions (if additional support (if additional support can be identified)can be identified)--WRF( version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).WRF( version with moving-nest, vortex-tracking algorithm).
Simulations to support design of future observations sensor networks; 4DVAR Simulations to support design of future observations sensor networks; 4DVAR with different combinations of observational data. with different combinations of observational data. WRF + 4DVARWRF + 4DVAR
Investigate the role of ocean color on hurricane development Investigate the role of ocean color on hurricane development (If funds are identified)(If funds are identified)
Dependency of inland flooding on different landfall regimes & pre-existing Dependency of inland flooding on different landfall regimes & pre-existing climatic conditions. climatic conditions. Extend the HTDF to include (intensity, direction, speed information)- HAM3d Watershed coupled model – single CPU
African Easterly Wave Track Axis
LL
HH HH
LL
TeleconnectionsTeleconnections
African Easterly Wave Track Axis
LL
HH HH
LL
TeleconnectionsTeleconnections
QuikSCAT is a polar orbiting; 1800 km wide measurement
swath; Generally results in twice
per day coverage over a given geographic
region.
Current date and time: 05:32 GMT,
Nov 4 2006
SEAWiFS Ocean Color: Chlorophyll
Current date and time: 05:32 GMT, Nov 4 2006
… difficult to interpret …
Our new method is based on the identification of Our new method is based on the identification of “hurricane track patterns” using “Hurricane Track “hurricane track patterns” using “Hurricane Track
Density Function”Density Function”
),(),( jj
j ttxxWtxC where
tx S
t
S
xtxW
22 coscos),( when ,
2
xS
x
2
tS
t
0),( txW ,otherwise.
HTDF EOFs: (a) HTDF space field associated with EOF 1 (30.47%), (b) HTDF space field associated with EOF2 (12.89%) and (c) HTDF space field associated with EOF3 (9.72%)
EOF1
EOF3
EOF2
• Regions economic unionsRegions economic unions
• ACMAD (Western Africa) - ECOWAS
• ICPAC (Eastern Africa) – IGAD
• DMCH (Southern Africa) – SADC
• UniversitiesUniversities
• University of Ghana, Nairobi, Capetown, Cairo• InternationalInternational
• WCRP/VACS – “Clearing House”
• WMO/RA I
• WMO/CLIPS
•British Africa Initiative
• Canadian Africa Initiative
• Scandanavian Africa Initiative• OtherOther
• AMMA, IRI, World Bank, SSA-NSF