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Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Takeshi Hattori
Sophia University, Japan
E-mail: thattori@mmc.ee.sophia.ac.jp
"Overview of 3rd Generation mobilecommunication Systemsin Asia Pacific Regions"
ICC2000
21 June, 2000
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
- Market growth of mobile communications
in Asia
- IMT-2000 general description
- Status in China and Korea
- IMT-2000 standardization in Japan
- Future prospect of mobile computing in
Japan
Contents
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Physical users in million
2000 2005 2010
Europe, EU15 113 200 260
North America 127 190 220
Asia Pacific 2 149 400 850
Rest of the world 37 150 400
Total 426 940 1730
World-Wide Mobile Market Forecast
(UMTS Forum - Report No.8)
Asia Pacific has the most potential in terms of market scale.
The number of users is now estimated to reach 850 millions in 2010.
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Projected Distribution of World Cellular Subscriber
North America 17%
Asia-Pacific 35%
Western Europe 30%
Latin America 8%
Eastern Europe 5%
Africa 3%
Middle East 2%
NorthAmerica
17%
Asia Pacific35%
WesternEurope
30%
Latin America 8%
Eastern Europe 5%
Base by region as year of 2004
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
250
200
150
100
50
0
Subs in Miliion
Region
Middle East
Africa
Eastern Europe
Latin America
North America
Westerm Europe
Asia-Pacific
Projected Cumulative Subscriber Base by Region
1994-2004
Asia-Pacific region will have more than 200 million
subscriber from 1994 to 2004.
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Distribution of Cellular Subscriber Base by Country
% share
Japan
China
Korea
Australia
Taiwan
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
India
Others
Japan
41.7%
China
22.7%
Korea
5.5%
Australia4.4%
Taiwan 2.7%
Strategy Group 1998
Asia-Pacific region
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
PDC
GSM
CDMA
TACS
PHS
AMPS
NMT
TDMA
Others
Distribution of Cellular subscriber Base by Technology
PDC35.1%
GSM34.1%
CDMA13.1%
TACS6.5%
PHS5.6%
AMPS4.4%
Strategy Group 1998
Asia-Pacific region
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Cellular/3G Penetration 1998 and 2003 in Asia
32.3%
21.8%
8.1%3.6%
9.5%2.0%
24.4%11.2%
39.6%18.9%
53.5%
55.1%
58.3%26.5%
62.3%29.8%
64.5%35.6%
68.7%42.4%
20031998
Thailand
China
Malaysia
New Zealand
Taiwan
Australia
Singapore
Korea
Japan
Hong Kong
Country
Strategy Group 1998
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
- Higher quality of mobile phone
- International roaming capability
- Multimedia services of voice, data and video
- Seamless service capability with VHE concept.
- Service integration of terestial and satellite
service
Objectives of IMT-2000
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Scenario for mobile communications in IMT-2000
BS
A or
B
RP
MS
CX
MS
R1
R1R1
R1=R2 (1)
PS
PS
CSR2
R2
R2
R2
R2P B X
A A or B
R2
PS
PS
PS
CS
CS
CS
CS
MS
PTM
PS
R2
R1 BS
A or B
R1
PS
MS
PSMS
CS
R2
AA or
B
R2R2
CSPS
PSPS
PS
PS
CS
W P
P B S
(2)
R4
MS MS PS
R3R3
R2
* R1 to R7 interfaces have been defined.
* R1 is for Vehicular and R2 is for Pedestrian environment.
* R1 and R2 may be merged into one interface.
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Requirements of transmission capability
3 8 4 k b p s3 8 4 k b p s1 4 4 k b p s
3 8 4 k b p s3 8 4 k b p s1 2 8 k b p s
P a c k e t
C i r c u i t
O - E n v i r o n m e n tP - E n v i r o n m e n tV - E n v i r o n m e n t
* Step I
s a m e s a m e 2 . 0 4 8 M b p s
1 . 5 3 6 M b p ss a m es a m e
P a c k e t
C i r c u i t
O - E n v i r o n m e n tP - E n v i r o n m e n tV - E n v i r o n m e n t
* Step II
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Proposal for ITU-R of IMT-2000 Radio Access
Country Proposal AssociationEnvironment
CommentI-E P-E V-E S-E
Japan W-CDMA ARIB 4.096 Mcps
Europe UTRA: W-CDMA ETSI SMG2 4.096 Mcps FDD, TDD
DECT EP DECT
USA UWC-136 TIA TR45.3 TDMA Packet
cdma2000 TIA TR45.5 3.684 Mcps
WIMS W-CDMA TIA TR46 Shilling, AT&T
NA W-CDMA T1P1
Korea CDMA I TTA cdma2000
CDMA II TTA
China TD-CDMA CATT
Synchronous CDMA
Europe SW-CDMA ESA W-CDMA
SW-CTDMA ESA CDMA/TDMA
ICO-RTT ICO Global Com. ICO
Korea SAT-CDMA TTA LEO
Inmarsat Horizons Inmarusat GEO
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
USA
MSS : Mobi le Satel l i te Services Reserve40 MHz
1850 1910 1930 1990 2110 2150 2165 2200 MHz
A15
D5
B15
E5
F5
A15
D5
B15
E5
Unlicensed
20MHz
C15
F5
C15 MSS MSS
2025
1980 2010 2025 2110 2170 2200 MHz1885 1900 1920
DECT UMTS UMTS MSS MSS
Europe
UMTS
FDD FDDTDD
1980 2010 2025 2110 2170 2200 MHz1885 1920
IMT-2000 MSS MSS
Japan
IMT-2000
1893.5 1919.6
PHS
FDD FDDTDD
IMT2000
UMTS
Frequency Assignment of IMT-2000
R
MSSRR
R
MSSRWLLCellular
China
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
The operators Harmonization Group (OHG) has reached
an agreement.
1. FDD mode 1 - Direct Sequence (ETSI UTRA supported by ARIB)
2. FDD mode 2 - Multi-Carrier (TIA cdma 2000)
3. TDD mode - TD/CDMA (ETSI UTRA)
Globally harmonized 3 G W-CDMA standard
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
IMT-2000 Harmonization
Flexible Connection Between Core Network
and Radio Access Network
Network - Network
Interfaces
Evolved
GSM(MAP)
Evolved
ANSI-41
IP-based
Networks
IMT-DS
W-CDMA(UTRA FDD)
Direct Spread
IMT-MS
CDMA2000
Multi Carrier
IMT-TC
UTRA TDD
Time Code
IMT-SC
UWC-136
Single Carrier
IMT-FT
DECT
Frequency
Time
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
=< 150 ms10-5 - 10-8
=< 150 ms10-5 - 10-8
=< 150 ms10-5 - 10-8
=< 200 ms10-5 - 10-8
< 20-300 ms10-3 - 10-7
< 20-300 ms10-3 - 10-7
< 20-300 ms10-3 - 10-7
< 400 ms10-3 - 10-7
Non-realtimeRealtimeEnvironment
Indoor/low speed:< 10 km/h
Urban/ :< 120 km/h
Rural:< 500 km/h
Satellite:< 1000 km/h
Service Quality discussed in 3GPP
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Connection of Core Network and RTT
L3,MM,CC
(WCDMA)
L3,MM,CC
(cdma2000)
L3 RRC(WCDMA)
L2(WCDMA)
L1(WCDMA as per Section 2)
L3,MM,CC
(cdma2000)
L3,MM,CC
(WCDMA)
L3 RRC(cmda2000)
L2(cmda2000)
L1( cmda2000as per Section 2)
HOOKS
HOOKS
HOOKS
EXTENSION
EXTENSION
EXTENSION
Direct Spread Mode Multi-Carrier Mode
ANSI 41GSM MAPGSM MAP ANSI 41
HOOKS
HOOKS
HOOKS
EXTENSION
EXTENSION
EXTENSION
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Status of mobile communications in China
- China telecom and China unicom
- 43 millon subs. in 1999 and 60 million subs. in 2000
- More than 90% is shared by China Telecom GSM
- The lowest monthly charge of RMB 50 (US5$) per month and lowest
usage charge of RMB0.40 (US 5 cent)/minute in the world.
- Many trials of CDMA in Beijing, Shanghai and other cities by China
Unicom with the supports of Motorola, Lucent Samsung and Nortel.
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
- TD-SCDMA proposal for IMT-2000 by CATT
- 100 MHz will be available for TS-SCDMA system
- TD-SCDMA is now discussed in 3GGP for system integration.
- Field trial tests in Biding conducted by CATT with NTT DoCoMo
and Ericsson for the demonstration of W-CDMA.
IMT-2000 status in China
CATT : China Academy o Telecommunications Technology
TD-SCDMA : Time Division Synchronous / Smart / Software-radio CDMA
R
MSS
R
MSSWLLCellular
China
1920 1945
R
2010 2025
R
2110 2170
R
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Status of mobile communications in Korea
- SK Telecom, Shinsegi Telecom Inc. and 3 PCS operators.
- Most advanced country in cdma introduction.
- cdmaOne with 800 MHz and 1900 MHz.
- 14 million subs in 1998 and 23 million subs. in 1999.
- Fleetel has made field trial test of HDR..
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
- TTA proposal I (W- CDMA based) and proposal II ( cdma2000 based)
- SK Telecom has finished field trials of W-CDMA with NTT DoCoMo,
NEC and Ericsson by Dec., 1999.
- DACOM has made an agreement with Japan telecom for field trials.
- Consortium has been established with 60 companies joining for the
development of IMT-2000.
- SK Telecom will introduce IMT-2000 by Feb., 2002.
IMT-2000 status in Korea
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Deployment of mobile communications in Japan
1st Generation1979-1991
2nd Generation1992-2000
3rd Generation2001-
PDC-800
PDC-1500
W-CDMA/FDD-2000
by DoCoMo
cdma2000-2000
by KDDI 1992*J-Phone*Digital Tu-Ka*Tu-Ka Cellular
PDC-800
cdmaOne
PDC-1500
1987/1988*NTT-800/IDO*TACS-800/DDI W-CDMA/FDD-2000
by J-Phone
1979NTT-800/NTT
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
NTT DoCoMo
J-Phone
Cellular-G
IDO
TU-KA
NTTDoCoMo29.99 m
J-Phone8.42 m
DDI Cellular6.28 m
IDO3.92 m
TU-KA3.56 m
Market Share of Japanese Cellular Operators
52.19 millions as of April 2000
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Growth of cellular subscribers in Japan
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99.1 99.7 00.5
year
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100millions
Digital ratio
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Growth of PHS subscriber in Japan
Astel G
DDI-P
NTT-P
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
95.7 95.9 95.12 96.3 96.9 96.11 97.2 97.9 97.12 98.3 98.9 98.12 99.3 99.9
year
millions
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
0
20
40
60
80
1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
[千万台]
Fixed telephone
Mobilephone
ISDN
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Standardization of IMT-2000 in Japan
* Interim report for IMT-2000 by MPT in Sept. 1999
W-CDMA and cdma2000 have been recommended.
MPTRadio system and Frequency assignmentLicensing
ARIBRadio Interface and protocol
TTCNetwork System and Interface
3GPPW-CDMAGSM-MAP
3GPP2M-CDMAANSI-41
* Interim report for IMT-2000 by MPT in Sept. 1999
W-CDMA and cdma2000 have been recommended.
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
* 60 x 2 MHz has been allocated for IMT-2000.
* 5 MHz band adjacent with PHS will not assigned initially due to
interference.
* 3 operators will licensed for IMT-2000 by beauty contest and not
by auction.
* Initially 5 MHz band will be assigned to each operator and
up to 15 MHz will be added depending upon deployment status.
* 20 MHz will be assigned finally after resolving the interference.
Frequency Assignment and Licensing Policy in Japan
1980 2010 2025 2110 2170 2200 MHz1885 1920
IMT-2000 MSS MSS
Japan
IMT-2000
1893.5 1919.6
PHS
FDD FDDTDD
IMT
2000
op1 op2 op3 op1 op2 op3
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
PDC Air
PDC RAN PDC CN
IWF
A IMT-2000NNI
IMT-2000Air
IMT-2000 CN
GSM Evolution
IMT-2000 CNANSI-41 Evolution
IMT-2000 RAN
cdma2000A
IWF
IMT-2000NNI
IMT-2000 RAN
W-CDMA
Interwork of PDC and 3 G system in Japan
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Field Trials and Potential Licensing in Japan
Field Trials
Early to mid 1999
Potential Licensing
* NTT DoCoMo- W-CDMA
* Japan Telecom- W-CDMA
* KDD - W-CDMA
* DDI/ IDO - cdma2000
* NTT DoCoMo- W-CDMA
* J-Phone - W-CDMA
* KDDI - M-CDMA
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
PHS
Cellular
Future Prospected Subscriber of Cellular and PHS in Japan
80 Million Subscriber in year of 2003
Source: MPCP2000 report
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
Voice
Data
Mobile computing users vs. mobile phone users
The number of mobile computing users is estimated to be
52.92 million, 66.1% in 2003.
Source: MPCP2000 report
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
million $
Year1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
contents fee
video
data
male
Market estimation of mobile computing in Japan
The market will be 8 billion $ in 2003.
Source: MPCP2000 report
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
million $
Year1999 2000 2001 2002 2003
contents fee
video
wireless terminal
note computer
Market estimation of mobile computing
The market will reach up to 8 billion $ in 2003.
Source: MPCP2000 report
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
Mobile Communication Service Deployment
Transmission Rate (bps)
100 k 1 M10 k1 k
Short mailE-mail
Web Access
Content Access
Video and PictureFAX
Web Access
File Transfer
High quality picture and motion video
2nd Generation
3rd Generation
1st Generation
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
HTML: HyperText Markup
Language
TCP/IP: ransmission control
protocol/internet protocol
WML: Wireless Markup Language
WWW: world wide web
Mobile Net Internet
Wireless Internet network configuration
TCP/IP
Specific Protocol
WWW Server
C-HTMLHTML
WML
Mobile phones
Gate way
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
99.12
MML
PDC-circuit
J-PHONE
J-sky
99.2
PDC-Packet
C-HTML
NTT DoCoMo
i-mode
99.4
PDC-circuit
cdmaOne-Packet
HDML/WML
IDODDI-TU-KA
EZAccessEZweb
Commercializa
tion
Transmission
Descpt.lang
Operator
Service
Wireless Internet access in Japan
5 million subscribers of i-mode followed by EZweb/EZaccess and J-sky
Sophia Univ. T. Hattori
* High Quality Voice
* Data base access
* Streamline Video / Interactive Video
* Message service
* Location service
* music down load with MP3
* Game
* Mobile banking
* Mobile e-commerce
Mobile Multimedia Services in the future
It is expected that mobile terminal will act as a major role
for the future mobile multimedia service.