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Overview of Increment TrackingOverview of Increment Trackingand Cumulative Effectsand Cumulative Effects
Modeling IssuesModeling Issues
WESTAR Fall Technical Conference
Seattle
15-17 September 2003
Philip Allen, Oregon DEQ
What is included in Increment Tracking & Cumulative Effects analysis?
• PSD Class I Increment
• Air Quality Related Values (AQRVs)– Deposition
• S• N
– Visibility• Ammonium Sulfate [(NH4)2SO4]• Ammonium Nitrate [NH4NO3]• Particulate Matter (PM)
– Ozone [O3]
What are the resources to work with?What are the resources to work with?
• Meteorology– Observations (surface-upper air)– MM4/MM5 (80, 36, 12, 4 km)
• Emissions Inventories– State– Regional
• Data Management (met, EI, model results)– State– Regional
• The International Connection– shared domains, met, models, EI
• Models– CALPUFF– CMAQ– AERMOD
WESTAR Area of InterestWESTAR Area of Interest
Regional airsheds andRegional airsheds andoverlapping jurisdictions?overlapping jurisdictions?
• Pacific NW
• Pacific SW
• Colorado Plateau
• Rocky Mt West
• Northern Plains
• Colorado-New Mexico
• FLM jurisdictions
U.S.D.A. Forest Service RegionsU.S.D.A. Forest Service Regions
Region 1Region 6
Region 4
A brief example of a Class I Cumulative A brief example of a Class I Cumulative Effects Analysis in the Pacific NWEffects Analysis in the Pacific NW
• Bonneville Power Administration (BPA)
– NEPA study on proposed power plants– conducted in 2001– Proposed plants only
• No existing industrial point sources• No area and mobile sources
Federal Class I Areas: Oregon and Washington
Regional wind fields based on MM5 at 12 kmRegional wind fields based on MM5 at 12 km
1000 1050 1100 1150 1200 1250 1300 1350 1400 1450 1500 1550 1600 1650
East-W est Lam bert C onform al C oordinate (km )
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O lym pic N PO lym pic N P
Pasayten W ild.
N orth C ascades N P
G lacier Peak W ild.
A lp ine Lakes W ild.
M t R ain ier N P
G oat R ocks W ild.
M t Adam s W ild.
C R G N SA
M t H ood W ild.
M t Jefferson W ild.
S traw berry M tn. W ild.
Eagle C ap W ild.
H ells C anyon W ild.
Spokane Indian R es.
Three S isters W ild.
D iam ond Peak W ild.
M t Baker W ild .
1 - F redonia Facility2 - R athdrum Pow er3 - F rederickson Pow er4 - C oyote Springs 25 - G oldendale Energy6 - H erm iston Pow er7 - C hehalis G eneration8 - Longview Energy9 - The C liffs10 - B ig H anaford11 - U m atilla G enerating12 - M int Farm13 - W allu la Pow er14 - S tarbuck Pow er15 - Satsop Phase I
BPA Study: Class I areas and example baseline sourcesBPA Study: Class I areas and example baseline sources
BPA Study: Max 24-hr visibility extinction (1Mm) BPA Study: Max 24-hr visibility extinction (1Mm) from baseline sourcesfrom baseline sources
Pacific NW and the Columbia BasinPacific NW and the Columbia Basin
Examples of regional studies
• Chuck Machovec: SW Colorado-Northern New Mexico
• Ken Rairigh: Wyoming