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Overview of the Energy Policy in Portugal
EDP – Energy Planning DepartmentAna Quelhas – ana.quelhas@edp.pt
Budapest, November 26th 2009
Prima F5 e este botão para Introduzir o nome da Direcção/Departamento no rodapé da apresentação
Energy Planning Department2
Agenda
Overview of the Portuguese energy sector
Energy policy in Portugal
Conclusions
Energy Planning Department
Final energy consumption is decelerating, having recently even decreased (economic slowdown and energy efficiency)
3
Source: DGEG
E v o lu t io n o f fi n a l e n e r g y c o n s u m p t io n ,
b y s e c t o r
M toe
Evolution of final energy consumption, by sectorMtoe
14.1
18.219.5
18.7
‘95-’00 ‘00-’05 ‘05-’07
-0.4% 1.4% -14.1%
10.5% 6.9% -5.3%
2.8% 1.9% -0.4%
7.3% 0.7% -0.7%
4.1% -0.1% -0.6%
5.2% 1.4% -2.0%
C o m p o u n d a n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e
%
Compound annual growth rate%
GDP annual growth
4.1% 0.6% 1.5%
Energy Planning Department
Electricity consumption has maintained growth rates above final energy consumption
4
E v o lu t io n o f e le c t r ic i t y c o n s u m p t io n , b y
s o u r c e
M toe
Evolution of electricity consumption, by sourceMtoe
‘95-’00 ‘00-’05 ‘05-’07
0.3% 49.0% 4.7%
17.1% 21.7% 24.0%
6.6% -16.1% 45.2%
-7.8% 1.2% -49.4%
NA 14.1% -4.0%
1.8% 0.9% -9.7%
5.5% 4.7% 2.0%
C o m p o u n d a n n u a l g r o w t h r a t e
%
Compound annual growth rate%
Source: REN
29.4
38.5
48.650.6
Technologies under the special regime category (mainly renewables) have the fastest growth rates
Energy Planning Department
Weight of the top-2 fuel types on primary energy consumption%, 2007
Weight of the top-2 fuel types on primary energy consumption%, 2007
Share of imports in primary energy consumption%, 2007
Share of imports in primary energy consumption%, 2007
5
68%73%
59%
76%82%
70%72%
PT ES IT FR DE UK HU
Nuclear Oil Coal Gas Renewables
61%
20%
59%50%
82% 80%85%
PT ES IT FR DE UK HU
EU15
63% EU1556%
Portugal is in line with other European countries regarding fuel diversity, but has a higher dependency on imports
Source: Eurostat
Energy Planning Department
Share of imports in consumption%, 2007
Share of imports in consumption%, 2007
6
Weight of the top-2 fuels on consumption%, 2007
Weight of the top-2 fuels on consumption%, 2007
Reserve margin1
#, 2008Reserve margin1
#, 2008
1. Reliably available capacity / (Margin against peak load + Load with or without DSM potential)Source: UCTE (System Adequacy Forecast 2009-2020), Eurostat
Portugal
Avg. hydraulicity64%
Reference level= 1.10
The Portuguese power sector has a better performance in terms of security of supply than the energy sector in general
Portugal
Energy Planning Department
Portuguese energy strategy is focused on improving security of supply through competitiveness and environmental adequacy
Competitividade
7
Portuguese National
Energy Strategy
• Market deregulation
- MIBEL
• Strengthen infrastructures
• Ensure generation capacity
• Integrated competitive players
• Regulator’s independence
Stimulate competitiveness
Guarantee environmental
adequacy
Ensure security of supply
• Renewables strong promotion
- Hydro and wind power- Effort on other sources
• Targets on biofuels
• Key measures on energy efficiency
• Industrial and R&D cluster linked to renewables development
• Enough supply to meet demand
• Fuel diversity
• Energy independency
Energy Planning Department8
Agenda
Overview of the Portuguese energy sector
Energy policy in Portugal
Conclusions
Energy Planning Department
• Reach 45% of renewables in electricity mix in 2010 and 60% in 2020
• Reach 10% in biofuels in 2010 and 10% of renewables in transports in 2020
• Replace 5-10% of coal with biomassa in coal-fired power plants
Promote renewable energies
Increase hydro installed capacity
Increase energy efficiency
Reinforce interconnection capacity
• Increase the explored potential from 46% in 2008 to 67% in 2020• National plan for hydropower developments: 1,100 MW by 2020• Under construction: Baixo Sabor, Ribeiradio and reinforcements
at Picote, Bemposta and Alqueva
• Implement the National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency (PNAEE) with the objective of reducing 9.8% of final energy consumption by 2015
• Increase interconnection capacity with Spain, with the objective of reaching 3,000 MW in 2014
Portugal has adopted a comprehensive policy that contribute to security of supply, competitiveness and sustainability
9
Increase CCGT installed capacity
• License 4 new CCGT plants with a total power of 3,200 MW
A
B
C
D
E
Promote the electric vehicle • Promote electric mobility (Mobi.E)F
Energy Planning Department
#4 #5
UE-25 21%
UE-27 20%
Portugal has taken a leadership role in the development of renewable energy sources
R e n e w a b le s t a r g e t f o r 2 0 1 0
% of renew ables in gross e lectric ity consum ption
Renewables target for 2010% of renewables in gross electricity consumption
R e n e w a b le s t a r g e t f o r 2 0 2 0
% of renew ables in the gross final energy consum ption
Renewables target for 2020% of renewables in the gross final energy consumption
10
Source: Directive 2001/77/CE; COM(2008) 19 final 23Jan08
x Ranking of PortugalA
Energy Planning Department11
The Portuguese Government has revised its renewable energy policy to more ambitious targets for 2010
Source: Ministério da Economia e da Inovação – Energy Policy (2007)1. MG – Micro-generation; 2. Bring forth European Union goal by 10 years; 3. Fuel tax
• Additional capacity of 450 MW through upgrades in existing facilities• Create industrial clusters associated with two launched bids• Launch bids to grant 200 MW of installed capacity to small promoters
• Support investment in hydropower and pumping capacity reinforcement − anticipate two capacity reinforcements/upgrades projects and duplicate
current Alqueva’s hydro plant capacity until 2010/11
• Create decentralized network of biomass plants (~15 new plants)• Close cooperation with regional forest resources and with fire-risk mitigation
policies
• Build largest photovoltaic plant in the world • Mandatory installation of thermal solar panels
• Create Pilot Area with exploration potential up to 250MW• Promote industrial and pre-commercial technological development with prototype
installation in emerging technologies
• Reinforce bio-fuels goals (5.75% -> 10%)2
• ISP3 exemption for road transportation fuels and domestic agricultural incorporation
• Launch new bid during 1st semester of 2007
• Create residue anaerobic treatment units • Resolution of environmental problems, namely “Ribeira dos Milagres”
• “Instant Renewables” – simplified system for micro photovoltaic and wind power • Program to install 50,000 systems until 2010, with incentive for installation of
Solar Hot Water in existing households
Wind
Solar
Biogas
Micro-generatio
n
Hydro-power
Biomass
Wave
Biofuels
3,750 MW4,700 MW
+ 450 MW
5,000 MW5,575 MW + 7,000 MW
(2020)
150 MW 250 MW
150 MW150 MW invest in
MG1
50 MWPilot area
with 250 MW
No goals10% road
transportation fuels
No goals 100 MW
No goals50,000
roofs
DescriptionDescriptionInitial
targetsInitial
targetsTargets
‘10Targets
‘10A
Energy Planning Department12
To promote renewables, Portugal has an incentive scheme based on feed-in tariffs
Source: DL 225/2007; DPE Analysis1. Assuming 3,200 working hours; 2. Assuming 2,100 working hours; 3. Tariff applicable to installations with less than 10MW capacity; 4. Tariff goes from ~250€/MWh in 2008 (demonstration model) to ~75€/MWh in 2016 (commercial model)
Constant in nominal terms (decreasing in real terms)
Inflation
From 10/15 (most technologies) to 20 years (mini-hydro) and 25 years (biomass)
Pool price + guarantee of origin (if already developed)
New projects licensed after February 2006
74 74 75
317
259
114 117
254 253
52
Estimated tariffs for RES-E in PT for 2009 (1st year of operation)€/MWh
Estimated tariffs for RES-E in PT for 2009 (1st year of operation)€/MWh
Mini hydro1
Wind onshore2
Wind offshore
Solar
PV
Solar thermo3
Biomass Biogas Wave4 Tide4 Geo
Yearly indexation
Remuneration value for first
year of operation
Scheme duration
Applicability
Remuneration at the end of
defined scheme
Overview of key legislation aspects DL 225/2007Overview of key legislation aspects DL 225/2007
A
Energy Planning Department
Portugal is on track to meet its renewables objective for 2010, having already surpassed the 45% target
1. The share of reneweables for compliance with the indicative target set for 2010 is calculated assuming the same hydraulicity index of the base year (1997) 2. Moving year from September 2008 to August 2009Source: DGEG – Estatísticas rápidas sobre renováveis
Renewable share (Real)
Renewable share
(Directive1)
S h a r e o f r e n e w a b le s in g r o s s e le c t r ic i t y c o n s u m p t io n in P o r t u g a l
%
Share of renewables in gross electricity consumption in Portugal%
2
13
2
A
Energy Planning Department14
Wind power has been the renewable tecnology with the fastest growth rate in recent years
E le c t r ic i t y g e n e r a t io n f r o m r e n e w a b le s
TW h
Electricity generation from renewablesTWh
In s t a l le d w in d p o w e r c a p a c it y
M W
Installed wind power capacityMW
A
2
CAGR03-08 = 119%
1
1. Moving year from September 2008 to August 2009Source: DGEG – Estatísticas rápidas sobre renováveis
Energy Planning Department
For 2020, Portugal will most likely have to reach a share of 60% of renewables in the electricity mix
Source: COM(2008) 19 final 23Jan08; European Energy and Transport – Trends to 2030, update 2007
R e n e w a b le s t a r g e t f o r P o r t u g a l in 2 0 2 0
Share of renew ables in gross final energy consum ption
Renewables target for Portugal in 2020Share of renewables in gross final energy consumption
F o r e c a s t o f fi n a l e n e r g y p r o fi le f o r
P o r t u g a l in 2 0 2 0
%
Forecast of final energy profile for Portugal in 2020%
Share of renew able in each sector
Share of renewable in each sector
Sector ’s share in total energy consum ption
Sector’s share in total energy consumption
15
A
Energy Planning Department
Untapped hydro potential is set to be a key generation capacity growth driver in Portugal for the next 10 years
Hydro potential available
97%
86%
65%
France
86%Italy
Germany
78%Spain
Finland
Greece
PORTUGAL 46%
42%
Hydro potential developed
2015E
60%
16
Source: Ministério da Economia e da Inovação – Energia e Alterações Climáticas (2007)
67%
% Portuguese hydro potential developed
60%54%46%
H y d r o p o w e r in s t a l le d c a p a c it y
M W
Hydropower installed capacityMW
D e v e lo p e d h y d r o p o t e n t ia l in E u r o p e
%
Developed hydro potential in Europe%
B
Energy Planning Department17
Hydro contribution is key to achieve Government’s goal of 60% by 2020
Portugal’s progress towards achieving 2020 EU renewable targets implied for the electricity sectorTWh
Portugal’s progress towards achieving 2020 EU renewable targets implied for the electricity sectorTWh
The recently elected Government aims at assuring a leadership position of Portugal in terms of renewables and has already announced the objective of reaching 8,500 MW of wind power
and 1,500 MW of solar by 2020
60%
Demand ‘08 Δdemand ‘08-’20
Demand ‘201 Target ‘20 Hydro Wind Other
Required new RES-E
'09-'20
Gov goals2 '10
New hydro Gap to target 2020
Renewable generation in 2008
1. Low demand scenario assumed for Demand growth; 2. Assumed working hours of 2.200h and 3.000h for wind and other renewables, respectivelySources: Internal information; XVIII Government’s program
A B
Energy Planning Department
Regarding conventional thermal power, the Portuguese Government has licensed ~3,200 MW of new CCGT
18
In s t a l le d C C G T c a p a c it y in P o r t u g a l
M W
Installed CCGT capacity in PortugalMW
C C G T is t h e p r e fe r r e d
c o n v e n t io n a l t e c h n o lo g y
CCGT is the preferred conventional technology
• Higher environmental performance
• Reduced time-to-market
• Higher economic attractiveness
• Lower initial investment
• Lower financial risk against market prices and CO2
EDP was awarded 2 out of the 8 licences (Lares 1 and 2) and has already committed both units
New licenses
C
Lares 1 & 2 were commissioned in
Aug-09 and Sep-09
Energy Planning Department
Direct savings from fuel and CO21
M€
Direct savings from fuel and CO21
M€Directly avoided CO2 emissions2
Mton/ano
Directly avoided CO2 emissions2
Mton/ano
InvestmentsM€InvestmentsM€
Job creationNew direct job creationJob creationNew direct job creation
5.8
2.0
1.91.0
10.7
Wind Hydro CCGT Others Total
3,200
11,520 18,270
2,1501,400
Wind Hydro CCGT Others Total
7,700
4,835
1,9201,700
16,155
Wind Hydro CCGT Others Total
488
105
85
717
39
wind Hydro CCGT Others Total
11% of 2007 energy bill
70% of the power sector emissions
in 2007
10% of 2007 GDP
40% of jobs created in the past 3 years
Energy dependency of the power sectorEnergy dependency of the power sector
55%
40%
2010 2020
19
The bet on renewables and CCGT is promoting investments, creating jobs and enabling regional development
1. Assuming Brent at 70 $/bbl, coal at 70 $/ton, CO2 at 20 €/ton; 2. Assuming an emission factor of 0.5 ton/MWh
A B C
Energy Planning Department
3.0
1.2
1.9
2.6
3.02.8
1.9
1.0
2008 2010 2012 2014
PT -> ES ES -> PT
2.2
1.8
2.6
1.1
1.8
2008 2010 2012 2014
PT -> ES ES -> PT
Increase interconnection capacity to ~3,000 MW (25% of peak consumption - best practice1)
Source: REN, Plano de Desenvolvimento e Investimentos da RNT 209-2014 (2019 – Consulta Pública (Feb08)1. EU recommends that the interconnection capacity represents 10% of the peak demand of the smallest of the interconnected systems
2nd interconnection in the northwest of Portugal – Galiza, 400 kV (2013/14)
Reinforcement in the Tagus axis, 400 kV (2009/10)
Algarve-Andaluzia, 400 kV (2010/11)
Winter Summer
Reinforcement in the international Douro river, 220 kV and 400 kV (2008/09)
DN e w p r o je c t s p la n n e d u p t o
2 0 1 2
New projects planned up to 2012
In t e r c o n n e c t io n c a p a c it y b e t w e e n
P o r t u g a l a n d S p a in (GW )
Interconnection capacity between Portugal and Spain (GW)
The increased interconnection capacity is essential for market integration and to promote large integration of renewables
Energy Planning Department
Regarding energy efficiency, the Government has launched a program with a savings target of 9.8% by 2015
1. National Action Plan for Energy EfficiencySource: PNAEE
21
P N A E E e s t im a t e d s a v in g s , b y s e c t o r
%
PNAEE estimated savings, by sector%
E n e r g y S e r v ic e s D ir e c t iv e
Directive 2006/32/CE
Energy Services DirectiveDirective 2006/32/CE
• 1% per year saving from start of 2008 to end of 2016
• Final energy saving vs. ‘01-’05 national average
• Member states obliged to submit national plans
- PNAEE1 in Portugal
• Non-binding target
Portuguese objective is 20% above the target set by the European Directive for 2015
E
Energy Planning Department
In 2009, public funds allocated to energy efficiency measures amount to €290M
IIE
Initiative for investment and job creation
PPEC
Plan for promoting efficiency in the
electricity consumption
PNAEE
National Action Plan for Energy Efficiency
Total
Sources: PNAEE, Government website (www.gov.portugal.pt), IIE, ERSE
P u b l ic f u n d s f o r in v e s t m e n t s in e n e r g y e ffi c ie n c y in 2 0 0 9€M, 2009, by supporting mechanism
Public funds for investments in energy efficiency in 2009€M, 2009, by supporting mechanism
22
• Part of a €2,180M economic stimulus package:
- €1,300M directly from the Government’s Budget
- €880M of EU funds
• €250M allocated to Sustainable Energy (mainly to promote micro-generation and energy efficiency measures in the public sector)
E
Energy Planning Department
One of the measures adopted under PNAEE is a simplified system for renewable micro-generation (“Instant Renewables”)
Sources: PNAEE,
23
E
Registration system:• Identifies
electricity client number
• Installed capacity up to 50% of contracted power and 3.68 kW
• Micro-PV, or• Micro-wind, or• Micro-hydro, or• Cogeneration with
biomass, or• Fuel cells
+• Solar thermal
• Inspection occurs up to 4 months after registration
• Registration system grants certification to use the equipments
Contract is signed with the retailer to start selling power to the grid• Up to 75% of the
revenues can go directly to the bank to finance the investment
Online registration
Installation of the equipment
Inspector grants Certification
Starts selling power to the grid
Energy Planning Department
With “Instant Renewables” the Government expects to reach 165 MW of micro-generation by 2015
Sources: PNAEE, DL 363/2007
24
EM a x im u m a l lo w e d in s t a l le d c a p a c it y
M W
Maximum allowed installed capacityMW
E v o lu t io n o f t h e r e f e r e n c e t a r iff
€/M W h, scenario of m axim um installed capacity
Evolution of the reference tariff€/MWh, scenario of maximum installed capacity
Up to 165 MW in 2015
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Solar PV Wind Hydro
~650 €/MWh in 2008
~300 €/MWh in 2015
• Maximum installed capacity increases 20%/year• Tariff valid in the construction year is guaranteed for the first 5 years; after that, the tariff of the
corresponding year applies
Energy Planning Department
The Government is promoting the adoption of the electric vehicle through the Electric Mobility Program (Mobi.E)
Sources: RCM 81/2009, Mobi.E website (www.mobi-e.pt)
25
F
Portugal is in the front run in the development and adoption of new energy models for mobility
An integrated network between several points existing in national territory boosted by the management entity Mobi.E which shall allow the supply of electric vehicles by way of a charging card
What is the Electric Mobility System?
• At private garages • At public access points (car parks,
shopping centres, hotels, airports, petrol pumps and on the public highway)
Where are the supply points located?
• Overnight, taking advantage of the energy produced by renewable sources at times of lower consumption
• By way of rapid charging during the day in accordance with the needs of the user
How can the electric vehicle be supplied?
By way of a pre-paid card CHARG.E of the Mobi.E network which shall provide them with access to the supply points, discounting the charging value
How is supply processed?
Energy Planning Department
In a mature phase, smartgrids and two way charging will allow electric vehicles to sell energy stored in batteries to the grid
Sources: RCM 81/2009, Mobi-E website (www.mobi-e.pt)
26
F
• The pilot phase was launched this year and will test technical, services and business solutions
C h a r g in g p o in t s in t h e p i lo t p h a s e
# of charging points
Charging points in the pilot phase# of charging points
S q u e m a t ic r e p r e s e n t a t io n o f t h e v e h ic le -
t o -g r id ( V 2 G ) c o n c e p t
Squematic representation of the vehicle-to-grid (V2G) concept
• In a mature phase, V2G will allow not only buying electricity to charge the vehicle but also selling the stored energy to the grid (intelligent charging and distributed storage)
Energy Planning Department2727
Note: Assuming generation mix 35% CCGT, 25% coal and 40% renewables; Base year used: 2006Source: DGEG, DPE analysis
Primary energy consumptionMTep, %
Primary energy consumptionMTep, %
Energy billM€, %Energy billM€, %
CO2 emissionsMton, %
CO2 emissionsMton, %
Energy dependency%
Energy dependency%
Electric consumptionTWhe, %
Electric consumptionTWhe, %
17.6
50.050.0
ICE 100% EV
7.2
2.9
18.718.7
ICE 100% EV
17.47.1
65.865.8
ICE 100% EV
2,573
335
3,3283,328
ICE 100% EV
28% 16%
61%56%
ICE 100% EV
25.9
21.6
-17%
83.2
72.9
Kyoto
targ
e 2
01
2 –
77
,2 M
ton
-12%
5,901
3,663
-38%
+35%
67.6
-8%
84%
77%
Passenger transportation
Others
If all vehicles became electric, the impact would be very significant for the national energy balance
F
Energy Planning Department28
Agenda
Overview of the Portuguese energy sector
Energy policy in Portugal
Conclusions
Energy Planning Department
Conclusions
29
• Portugal has a high dependency on primary energy fossil fuels imports
- 82% vs. 56% of EU15, in 2007
• The power sector has a better performance in terms of security of supply than the energy sector in general
- Higher fuel diversity
- Less dependency on imports
- Adequate reserve margin
• Portuguese energy strategy is focused on improving security of supply, promoting renewables, efficient conventional thermoelectric power, and energy efficiency
- Set targets of 45% and 60% for renewables in the electricity mix in 2010 and 2020, respectively, with a clear focus on hydro and wind
- Awarded licenses for new natural gas generation capacity of 3,200 MW
- Approved legislation and launched programs to improve energy efficiency and promote the adoption of electric vehicles