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Overview of the KMA's Space Weather Service and R&D Program
Jiyoung Kim
(aceasia@korea.kr)
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Contributors of this presentation:Jinha Lee, Hyesook Lee, Jaehoon Noh, Wonhyeong Yi,
Dong-Hee Lee, Daehyeon Oh, Jaegwang Won, and Hoon Park, who are my colleague of the KMA/NMSC
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Outline
Background of KMAs Space Weather Service
Current Status of the Operational Service Monitoring, Models, and Forecasts
Research and Development Activities Operational System Construction Space Weather Payload (KSEM) Development Weather Impact Studies
Space Weather Policy of KMA KSEM Launch, R&D Enhancement, and Partnerships International Collaborations
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Background
Why KMA interested in the Space Weather?
Increased needs of space weather information due to the expansion of human activities to the SPACE
More stable operations of the meteorological satellites(current COMS and the following GK-2A)
Climate change study by natural solar forcing as well as solar impacts on terrestrial weather phenomena
[The National Weather Act 14. 2]
KMA has to provide the forecast (including warning) service on various weather- and climate-related impacts due to
physical causes from the SPACE
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Operational Space Weather Service
(monitoring, models, and forecast)
Poster Presentation: Wonhyeong Yi et al.
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Monitoring
Solar Flares
GOES-Primary: X-ray Flux
Coronal Hole (CH)
SDO AIA: Images in channes of 193 and 211
Coronal Mass Ejection (CME)
SOHO LASCO2 and LASCO3
Solar Activities
Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF)
Solar Wind Speed, Density, and Temperature
ACE was replaced by DSCOVR (as of July 27, 2016)
Interplanetary Space
Geomagnetic Storm and Proton/Electron Flux
Kp Index and Dst Index
Neat-Earth Environment
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Operational Monitoring System
Space Weather Monitoring by SDO Images, Radiation and Particle Fluxes
Operational Monitoring System
Radiation Dose for each Polar Airway based on KREAM and CARI-6 models
Satellite Operation by Magnetopause Position, Electron and Proton Fluxes
Operational Monitoring System
Models
Flare Prediction (AMOS)
Automatic McIntosh-based Occurrence probability of Solar activity
(AMOS)
Input
Flare occurrence probability by each sunspot group
McIntosh sunspot classification
Sunspot area
Sunspot area change
Output
Flare occurrence probability over C class within 24 hours
References
Lee et al., 2012: Solar Flare Occurrence Rate and Probability in Terms of
the Sunspot Classification Supplemented with Sunspot Area and Its
Changes, Solar Physics, 281, 639~650 .
Gallagher et al., 2002: Active-Region Monitoring and Flare Forecasting I. D
ata Processing and First Results, Solar Physics, 209, 171~183.
Solar Proton Event (SPE) Prediction
Input
Flare flux
Flare position
Arrival time of the maximum flare flux
Output
Probability of SPE occurrence (%)
References
Cane et al., 1986: Two classes of solar energetic particle events associated
with impulsive and long-duration soft X-ray flares, Astrophys J, 301, 448~45
9.
Reames, 1999: Particle acceleration at the Sun and in the heliosphere, Spac
e Sci. Rev., 90, 413~491.
Kallenrode, 2003: Current views on impulsive and gradual solar energetic p
article events, J.Phys. G Nucl. Phys, 29, 965~981.
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Models
Kp Index Prediction Model
Input
Solar wind dynamic pressure
Velocity
Density
IMF
Output
Predicted Kp index
References
Takahashi et al., 2001: An automated procedur
e for near-real-time Kp estimates, J. Geophys. R
es., 106, 21017~21032.
Wing et al., 2005: Kp forecast models, J. Geoph
ys. Res., 110, A04203, doi:10.1029/2004JA01050
0.
Magnetopause Prediction Model
Input
Solar wind dynamic pressure
Velocity
Density
Meridional component of MF (Bz)
Output
Position of magnetopause
Reference
Shue et al. 1998: Magnetopause location under
extreme solar wind conditions, J. Geophys. Res.,
103, A8, 17691~17700.
Dst Index Prediction Model
Input
Solar wind dynamic pressure
IMF
Output
Predicted Dst index
References
Burton et al., 1975: An empirical relations
hip between interplanetary conditions and
Dst, J. Geophys. Res., 80, 4204~4214.
Temerin and Li, 2002: A new model for the
prediction of Dst on the basis of the solar
wind, J. Geophys. Res., 107(A12), 1472, doi:1
0.1029/2001JA007532.
Temerin and Li, 2006: Dst model for 1995
2002, J. Geophys. Res., 111, A04221, doi:1
0.1029/2005JA011257.
Wang, C. B., J. K. Chao, and C. H. Lin (2003
), Influence of the solar wind dynamic pres
sure on the decay and injection of the ring
current, J. Geophys. Res., 108(A9), 1341, do
i:10.1029/2003JA009851.
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Models
KREAM
Korean Radiation Exposure Assessment Model for aviation route dose
(KREAM)
GEANT4 model+ NRLMSIS00 model
Input
Sunspot Number
GOES Proton Flux
Output
Radiation dose with latitude, longitude and altitude
Reference
Hwang et al., 2015: Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowc
ast of Aviation Radiation Dose, JASS 32, 39~44.
CARI-6M
Input
Predicted Heliocentric Potential (HCP)
Output
Radiation dose
Reference
Hwang et al., 2015: Heliocentric Potential (HCP) Prediction Model for Nowc
ast of Aviation Radiation Dose, JASS 32, 39~44.
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
For more advanced version of KREAM mode, please refer to HWANG et al. presentation!
Space Weather Alert/Warning
Radio Blackout (R)
Solar Radiation Storm (S)
Geomagnetic Storm (G)
Magnetopause Position (MP)
Criterion : 6.6 (Geostationary Orbit)
Satellite Operation (SO)
Radio Blackout (R)
Solar Radiation Storm (S)
Radiation Dose for Polar Airways (RD)
Radio Blackout (R)
Solar Radiation Storm (S)
Geomagnetic Storm (G)
Ionospheric Weather (IW)
G
SO
RDIW
R
SO
RDIW
S
SO
RD
MP
SO
NOAA Scale
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
1600KST Everyday
1700KST Every Tuesday
When R, S, G are expected to be 3rd level
When R, S, G are expected to be above 4th level
Warning Advisory
Daily FCST
Medium-range FCST
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Space Weather Alert/Warning
sample of forecast statement
Space Weather R&D Activities
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Space Weather R&D (2014~16)
Space Weather Data Analysis and Application Study
Radiation Dose for Polar Routes and TelecommunicationImpact Study
Development of Space Weather Forecast Models andConstruction of the Integrated Forecast System
Stable Operation of the Integrated Operational Model and Assessment for the Forecast Skill
Operation of the KREAM model with its Service Improvement
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Weather and Climate Impact Study of Space Weather Lightning impact study of high speed stream- Detected the enhancement of lightning rate in Korea- Expansion of study area over Northern Hemisphere- More detailed explanation of the physical mechanism
Poster presentation: Dong-Hee Lee et al.
Near real-time estimation of local K-index (Cheongyang)- Basic study for estimating local K-index over Korea- Relationship between Kp index and local K index(C.C. 0.8)- Comparison study of K index with latitudinal station data
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Space Weather R&D (2014~16)
Sensors Requirements Application Fields
Particle Detector- Electron energy range : 100keV ~ 2 MeV- Proton energy range : 100keV ~ 20 MeV- Angular Resolution (pitch angle): 60 at least
Global Electron DistributionParticle Distribution
Magnetometer- Measurement range : 64,000nT (in 3 axes)- Field Resolution : 1nT at least (on orbit)
Dst and Kp Prediction
Satellite ChargingMonitor
- Current range: 3pA/cm2
- Measurement Resolution : 0.001pA/cm2Satellite Charging Index
Geo-KOMPSAT-2ATo be launched in 2018
In orbit of 128.2E
Space Weather Payload (KSEM)
Launch/IOT/Ops.Module SetDesign and Review Testing for Launch
OPERATION/SERVICE
ENV TEST TEST/LAUNCH TEST
Launch
PROJECT
START
SYSTEM
REQUIREM
ENT
PRELIMIN
ARY
DESIGN
DETAILED
DESIGNENV TEST
TEST/
LAUNCH TEST
LAUNCH AND
IOT
2014 2015 2016
ENV TEST TEST/LAUNCH TEST
2017 2018
SYSTEM
REQUIREMENT
DESIGNING
MODEL
KSEM Development Milestone
LAUNCH AND
IOT
Poster presentation: Daehyeon Oh et al.
COMS Operation Events
Summary: Temporal disruption of COMS meteorological mission on August 31, 2016(0600UTC~0900UTC)
SEU might be one of reasons (KARI report)
SEU: a change of state or transient induced by an energetic particle such as a cosmic ray or proton
in a device. SEUs are soft errors, and non-destructive. They normally appear as transient pulses in
logic or support circuitry, or as bitflips in memory cells or registers
(Source: http://radhome.gsfc.nasa.gov).
Data Analysis:- GOES data: X-ray flux, Proton Flux(>10Mev), Electron Flux(>2MeV)*- ACE data: IMF, Solar wind data- Ground-based data: Kp index, Dst index- Models: position of magnetopause
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Characteristics:
Daily maximum electron flex(>2Mev) over 103 : 4 days continued
34 times since Dec. 2013(33 months). Once a month
SEU event(Aug. 12, 2015)
August 5 ~ 19, 2015
SEU event(Aug. 31, 2016)
August 19 ~ September 2, 2016
Characteristics of Space Weather
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
SW Impact on Satellite Operation
Internal Charging: >100 keV electron(due to high energy electrons)
Surface Charging: 0~100 keV electron(due to low energy electron)
SEU/Burnout/Latchup: >5MeV proton(due to high energy proton)
Drag Effect (satellite drag due to increase of neutral atmosphere on the satellite orbit)
Although it is not easy to reveal the cause of satellite disruption,
continued research, support and collaboration in the community
are needed (may give a feedback to the spacecraft design)
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Successful Operation of Space Weather Payload (KSEM) The first space-borne measurement of space weather in the
geostationary eastern orbit Development of data production, validation, and application
technology
R&D Investment for Improving the SW Service Strengthening the government, academic, and private
partnerships Close and open communication with SW users
International Collaboration with WMO and Others IPT-SWISS(Inter-Program Team on Space Weather Information,
System and Services) Collaborations with Asia and Oceania countries, U.S., and ESA
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
KMAs Space Weather Policy
To better understand complex system between solar and terrestrial physics, so more close collaborations are needed.
Meteorology
Climate Sciences
Chemistry
Dynamics
Radiative Transfer
Electrodynamics
Plasma Physics
Space Weather
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
KMAs Space Weather Policy
Space is too wide and deep for us,
and many questions are still waiting for us
4th AOSWA Workshop(October 24, 2016)
Thank you for your attention!