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© 2012 IBM Corporation
Cezar Taurion
Executivo de Novas Tecnologias/Technical Evangelist
Technology Trends To Watch In 2012 and beyond
© 2012 IBM Corporation2
Globalization
Trade Deregulation
Internet
Commoditization
A New Model for the Enterprise in a Flat World
Globally Integrated Enterprise
• Uncertain macroeconomic indicators in developed economies/ Unstable European economic conditions
• Developing economies now contribute more to world economic growth than developed economies.
• Success of China’s economy becoming more crucial
• Demographic shifts continue as people live longer
• Risks are everywhere, resulting in unpredictability
© 2012 IBM Corporation3
Vivemos uma rápida evolução da internet
© 2012 IBM Corporation4
The 3rd generation of computing platform, the 3rd phase of the Internet, and the explosion of information are colliding to form a perfect storm of disruption and transformation
InternetWeb2.0
Web 3.0 (Cloud, Mobile, Social)
1964 2008200319941981
Mainframe
Client Server/PC
Mobile Devices (Smartphones,
Tablets, etc)
Amount of Data Collected and Stored
Generations of Computing Platforms
Phases of the Internet
2012
2020-2
© 2012 IBM Corporation5
2012 Technology Trends To Watch
5
1. Cloud Computing
2. Social Business
3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT
4. Big Data/Analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation6
A cloud computing primer – your 60 second guide
Start
Finish
A new model of IT delivery and consumption… …inspired by internet
services in the consumer space
Key ingredients:
•elasticity
•PAYG
•on-demand self-service
Analogies - electricity generation
and The
Model-T Ford
Evolutionary, not revolutionary – time sharing, hosting, ASP
Variants – public, private, hybrid, community,
G-cloud add to confusion
Get toknowtheCloudstack
Near-term adoption overstated, long-term impact underestimated –all bets are off !
A “confluence of technologies” –virtualization, SOA, multi-tennancy
?
© 2012 IBM Corporation7
Software/ Application-as-a-Service
Financials
Industry SpecificApplications
CRM/ERP/HR
Collaboration
Platform-as-a-Service
Middleware
Database
Web 2.0 ApplicationsRuntime
DevelopmentTools
Desktop
Infrastructure-as-a-Service
Servers Networking StorageData Center
Fabric
Consolidated, standardised, virtualised,shared, dynamically provisioned, automated
Cloud Service Models
© 2012 IBM Corporation8
A range of deployment options
Private PublicHybrid
IT capabilities are provided “as a service,” over an intranet, within the enterprise and behind the firewall
Internal and external service delivery methods are integrated
IT activities / functions are provided “as a service,” over the Internet
Enterprise data center
Managed private cloud
� Third-party operated
� Client owned
� Mission critical
� Packaged applications
� High compliancy
� Internal network
Enterprise data center
Private cloud
� Private
� On client premises
� Client runs/ manages
Public cloud services
Users
B
� Shared resources
� Elastic scaling
� Pay as you go
� Public Internet
A
Member cloud services
A
Enterprise
B
� Mix of shared and dedicated resources
� Shared facility and staff
� Virtual private network (VPN) access
� Subscription or membership based
Hosted private cloud
Enterprise
� Third-party owned and operated
� Standardization
� Centralization
� Security
� Internal network
© 2012 IBM Corporation9
Cloud computing is more than the sum of the parts…
Virtualization Standardization Automation Self Service+ + +
Cloud Computing
With
� Enables flexibility
� Increase utilization
� Energy efficient
� Soft configuration
� Infrastructure abstraction
Without
� Physically constrained
� Capital intensive
� Hard configuration
� Linked to PO process
With
� Simplification
� Few configurations
� Enables automation
� Easier support
Without
� Physically constrained
� Many configurations
With
� Low human involvement
� Rapid deployment & mgt
� Repeatable configuration
� Improves compliance
Without
� Manually intensive
� Skill dependent
� Error prone
� Costly
With
� User in control
� Cost and usage choices
� Increased visibility
� IT/Business alignment
Without
� Dependency of availability of data centre staff
� Lack of awareness
© 2012 IBM Corporation10
13%
41%21%
28%38%
21%
Today 3 yrs
Nearly half (48%) of CIOs surveyed evaluate cloud options first, over traditional IT approaches, before making any new IT investments
Cloud is widely recognized as an increasingly important technology;adoption is expected to accelerate rapidly in the coming years
Source: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders; Q4. Which of the following most accurately describes your organisation’s level of cloud technology adoption today and which do you expect will best describe it in three years? Sizing the cloud , Forrester Research, April 21, 2011; http://www.cio.com/article/684338/Survey_CIOs_Are_Putting_the_Cloud_First
Piloting
Adopting
SubstantiallyImplemented
+215%
+33%
72%
91%
What is Your Organization’s Level of Cloud Adoption?
% of Respondents
The Global Cloud Computing Market is Forecast to Grow 22% per year through 2020
$0B
$50B
$100B
$150B
$200B
$250B
2011 2015 2020
$241B
$41B
$150B
Source: Sizing the cloud, Forrester Research, Inc., April 21, 2011
© 2012 IBM Corporation11
14% 10%5%
21%22% 34%
32%44%
43%
<$1B $1B - $20B >$20B
Piloting
Adopting
SubstantiallyImplemented
67%
76%82%
Company Annual Revenues
Today, at least two thirds of companies of all sizes are actively either experimenting with or implementing cloud
Source: (1) 2011 joint IBV/EIU Cloud-enabled Business Model Survey of 572 business & IT leaders, Q4, n=363
What is Your Organization’s Level of Cloud Adoption?% of Respondents; Today
© 2012 IBM Corporation12
IT is drawn to cloud’s cost, efficiency and control…
…while business users are drawn to cloud’s simplified,self-service experience and new service capabilities.
of CIOs plan to use cloud—up from 33% two years ago.
of business executives believe cloudenables business transformation and leaner, faster, more agile processes.
2011 IBM CIO Study, London School of Economics, December 2010
Eff
icie
ncy
Tra
nsfo
rmati
on
IT and Business are attracted to cloud for different reasons.
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Value delivered
Change management
Test provisioning
Install database
Install of operating system
Provisioning environment
Design and deploy business applications
From traditional To cloud
Months
Weeks
1 day
1 day
▄
Months
Days or hours
20 minutes
12 minutes
30–60 minutes
51% cost savings
Days/Weeks
“Our commitment to informed decision making led us to consider private cloud
delivery of Cognos via System z, which is the enabling foundation that makes
possible +$20M savings over 5 years.”
– IBM Office of the CIO
IT benefits from Cloud Computing are real
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Be
ne
fit
CostHigh
High IT Provider Relationship Profile
Provider researches,
recommends and implements
technology to enable quantum
leap in business capability
Utility
Commodity
Provider works with others to develop a
service and provide resources/skills
necessary to support the service
Provider of a quality service at a cost equal to or
lower than the competition
Provider of an adequate service at a cost lower
than the competition
Partner
Enabler
There are six typical steps to getting started with Cloud“IBM Cloud Assessment Workshop”
Analyze Workloads Determine DeliveryModels
E-Mail, Collaboration
SoftwareDevelopment
Test and Pre-Production
DataIntensive
Processing
Database ERP
Enterprise
Private Public
Hybrid
Trad
IT
Assess Risks
Determine ROI
1 2 3
4 5 6
Understand Strategic Direction
Build Roadmaps
En
terp
ris
eA
rch
ite
ctu
re
Phase 2Phase 2
Phase 3Phase 3
Phase 4Phase 4
Phase 1Phase 1
Bus iness Arc hit ect ureAlignment
D ata Model
Metadata
Informat ion Sys temsArchitecture
Define t he informati on integration architec ture
Info
rmat
ion
Inte
gra
tio
n I nformation Transformation
Ma
ste
r D
ata
Man
agem
en
t
I nf ormation Plac ement& Structure
Optimize data & c ontent pl acement and s truct ure across all
LOBs & technology silos
Extend the Informat ion Integrat ion Architecture f or placement &
s truct ure optimization
D oc ument busines s directi ons and I T’s ali gnment wit h t hem,
ac ross t he ent erpr ise
Provide a baseline of agreement by educating all stakeholders on t he
fundamentals of Ent erpr ise Archi tec ture
Integrate informat ion transf ormation with common met adat a and data
cl eans ing serv ices
Extend the inf ormation integration architecture across the
organization & tec hnol ogies
Int egrate data plac ement with the I nf ormation Lif ecy cle Management
implementation
Devel op and implement enterprise-wide business architecture in itiatives
As sess t he existi ng IS A rchitecture f or a select ed set of LOBs
Dev elop an overall IS enterpris e archit ec ture framework t o guide the enterpri se
Develop and execut e an IS Architecture roadmap ac ross the ent erpr ise
Develop met adat a t ec hnical st rategyPilot Metadata int egration with key t ools and
applicationsDocument business gl oss ary into met adata
repos itory for s ome LOBs
Est ablish a cros s-f unctional I nformation Archi tec ture (D at a Adminis tration) t eam
Establi sh data entit y naming s tandardsDefine and document common semant ics (business glos sary) across LOBs f or some
s ubjec t areas
Analyze Infrastructure Gaps
01. IT Host Resources
03. IT Storage Resources
04. IT Network Resources
02. IT Distr ibuted Resources
Exploratory DepartmentalEnterprise Integration
Exclusive Open
Scope of services
Assess current state Determine future stateIdentify required
capabili ties and initiativesDevelop roadmaps
01. IT Host Resources
03. IT Storage Resources
04. IT Network Resources
02. IT Distr ibuted Resources
Exploratory DepartmentalEnterprise Integration
Exclusive Open
Scope of services
Assess current state Determine future stateIdentify required
capabili ties and initiativesDevelop roadmaps
© 2012 IBM Corporation
No
Yes E
str
até
gia
No Yes
Criticidade
Nivel 3 Nivel 1
Nivel 2Nivel 4
Nível 4 Nível 3 Nível 2 Nível 1
Classe da Aplicação Não estratégica ou crítica Estratégica mas não crítica Alta criticidade Chave - Mais crítica
Distribuição 55% 20% 20% 5%
Disponibilidade Menor que95%
Médio95-98.5%
Alto98.5-99.7%
Muito Alto
Perfil de dados Non-sensitive or public Apenas uso interno Confidencial da empresa Informações pessoais
Suporte Melhor suporte Horas de Negócios 24*7 24*7
Monitoração Sem monitoração Servidor básico Infraestrutura Nível de Aplicação
� A maioria dos clientes possuem nível de criticidade 4 e relativamente poucas aplicações em nível 1;
� Começe migrando suas aplicações do nível 4 para o ambiente de Cloud movendo primeiro as aplicações de menor risco;
� Utilize a expertise adquirida no primeiro momento para migrar aplicações de níveis mais estratégicos.
Segmentação do portfolio em níveis de criticidade
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Software como Serviço
SaaS Lotus Live/ Tivoli Live/
Blueworks Live/ Rational
IBM Smart Cloud
Enterprise
Smart Business
Development and
Test Cloud
Smart Business
Desktop Cloud
IBM Cloud Service
Provider Platform
Server Cloud /
WebSphere
Cloudburst / Cast Iron
Analytics Colaboração/
Monitoração /
Segurança / BPM
Desenvolvimentoe Teste
Desktop e
Dispositivos
Infra-estrutura
(compute / storage
/ Integração)
Business
Services
Smart Analytics SystemPowered by Infosphere
Smart Analytics
AcceleratorPowered by Infosphere
IBM Cloud Quick
Start / Server /
Storage
Smart Business
Desktop Cloud
IBM Cloud Service
Provider Platform
IBM Cloud Service
Provider Platform
Security Services /
Blueworks Live /
Networking
Modelo de Serviço
e mais… Consultoria, Workshops, Arquitetura de Referência para desenvolvimento Cloud Computing
Portfolio IBM
Plataforma como Serviço
PaaS
Infra como Serviço
IaaS IBM Managed
Security Services
© 2012 IBM Corporation17
2012 Technology Trends To Watch
17
1. Cloud Computing
2. Social Business
3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT
4. Big Data/Analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation
© 2012 IBM Corporation19
O que acontece na Internet em apenas 1 minuto!
© 2012 IBM Corporation20
© 2012 IBM Corporation
200 mi
E se o Facebook fosse um país?
800mi
© 2012 IBM Corporation22
Crescimento das Midias Sociais
Social NetworksFacebook, YouTube
Informational / Services
Yahoo, MSN, Google
Yahoo MSN Google YouTube Facebook
% o
f T
ime S
pent,
Worldw
ide
© 2012 IBM Corporation
© 2012 IBM Corporation24
English gets 1.000.000 words on Wednesday, site saysJune 10, 2009 -- Updated 1328 GMT
(2128 HKT)
New English words
Web 2.0: the second generation of the Internet
n00b: a new or inexperienced user,
usually with technology
Jai Ho: an exclamation of victory, from Hindi
slumdog: an unkind term for a person who lives in a slum
cloud computing: services delivered via the Internet
carbon neutral: an activity that doesn't produce heat-trapping carbon emissions
Source: Global Language Monitor june 2009
2009
Which is the real world?
© 2012 IBM Corporation25
© 2012 IBM Corporation26
Quem é esta geração digital?
� Usam tecnologias digitais no seu dia a dia e esperam usá-las no trabalho. São early adopters por natureza.
� Entram no mundo online cada vez mais cedo... usam a Internet como laboratório social, para testar limites do relacionamento.
�Vivem em ritmo cada vez mais acelerado e são multitarefas (usam celular, MP3, PC...tudo ao mesmo tempo!)
© 2012 IBM Corporation27
© 2012 IBM Corporation28
Social Business - Social collaboration is changing the way business is being conducted
28
“A Social Business isn't just a company that has a Facebook page and a Twitter account. A Social Business is one that embraces and cultivates a spirit of collaboration and community throughout its organization—both internally and externally.” – IBM
“With 1.2 billion people on social networks, 20 percent of the world’s population, social computing is in its next phase. IT leaders must immediately incorporate social software capabilities throughout their enterprise systems.” – Gartner
“2011 has seen rapid expansion of business change that is being driven by the social customer, empowered employees, and a convergence of new technical capabilities. Businesses are deploying and using new social tools at an ever-increasing pace” – IDC
Defined
“New mass collaboration capabilities are irreversibly redefining what it means to be a highly productive organization” – Gartner
© 2012 IBM Corporation29
© 2012 IBM Corporation30
Mobile explosion
“By 2013, mobile phones will overtake PCs as the most common Web access device worldwide”
Source: Gartner Highlights Key Predictions for IT Organizations and Users in 2010 and Beyond:
http://www.gartner.com/it/page.jsp?id=1278413
Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web
Researchers reported that time spent on apps began to outpace time spent on the desktop or mobile Web
BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratioof 4-1
BY 2015 mobile application development projects targeting smartphones/tablets will outnumber native PC projects by a ratioof 4-1
© 2012 IBM Corporation31
© 2012 IBM Corporation
UMA NOVA GERAÇÃO
© 2012 IBM Corporation
UMA NOVA FAMÍLIA
A NOVA CASA
O NOVO PAI
A NOVA MÃE
O NOVO FILHO
© 2012 IBM Corporation
UM NOVO AMBIENTE DE TRABALHO
A NOVA ORGANIZAÇÃOO NOVO CHEFEO NOVO ESCRITÓRIOA GLOBALIZAÇÃO
© 2012 IBM Corporation
© 2012 IBM Corporation36
Mobile Computing will impact all business processes, requiring new application solutions written just for mobile
36
“Mobile business is the number one IT issue pre-occupying the minds of IT professionals in Asia/Pacific, according to IDC's CIO Innovation Survey 2011. ” – IDC
“Second generation mobile strategies differ considerably from those of the first generation. They must be multichannel, part of your holistic digital strategy, and include innovative mobile-only capabilities.” – Gartner
IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report
“By 2015, mobile Web technologies will have advanced sufficiently, so that half the applications that would be written as native apps in 2011 will instead be delivered as Web apps. ” – Gartner
New Strategies / Solutions Needed
© 2012 IBM Corporation37
The Consumerization trend is all about employees wanting to use the same technologies for business as they use in their personal lives.
37
“Employees are behaving more like consumers, demanding a wider choice of devices, exploiting consumer devices and applications from app stores, and adopting new strategies such as “bring your own” IT. As a result, the distinctions between a person's role as an employee and as a consumer are more blurred than ever. ” – Gartner
“You can blame the iPhone, Salesforce.com, and Facebook, but the truth is that business itself has driven the shift to employee-directed tech” – InfoWorld
• Tablets• Smartphones• App Stores• 4G • Social Media• Social Business • Gaming• Desktop Virtualization• Cloud Services• Unified Communications• Data Access• File Sharing
“The consumerization of IT—the influence that personal devices, the app store paradigm, gaming, social tools and more have on the expectations of employees and customers for workplace tools and innovation—is on a trajectory of blazing growth.'” – IDG
Press Release
It’s more than “Bring Your Own Device”Technologies Impacted by
Consumerization
© 2012 IBM Corporation38
2012 Technology Trends To Watch
38
1. Cloud Computing
2. Social Business
3. Mobile Computing/Consumerization of IT
4. Big Data/Analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation39
Competing on Analytics with Big data is big news
39
© 2012 IBM Corporation40
Volume of Digital DataEvery day, 15 petabytes of new information are being generated. This is 8x more than the information in all U.S. libraries.
© 2012 IBM Corporation41
Variety of InformationToday, 80% of new data growth is unstructured content, generated largely by email, with increasing contribution by documents, images, and video and audio
38% of email archiving decisions receive input from a C-level executive and 23% from legal/compliance professional
© 2012 IBM Corporation42
The Big Data trend presents a huge challenge (and opportunity) for Information Management professionals
42
“Variety – Big data extends beyond structured data, including unstructured data of all varieties: text, audio, video, click streams, log files and more.Velocity – Often time-sensitive, big data must be used as it is streaming in to the enterprise in order to maximize its value to the business.Volume – Big data comes in one size: large. Enterprises are awash with data, easily amassing terabytes and even petabytes of information.” – IBM
“The ideal enterprise data warehouse has been envisaged as a centralized repository for 25 years, but the time has come for a new type of warehouse to handle "big data." This "logical data warehouse" demands radical realignment of practices and a hybrid architecture of repositories and services” – Gartner
“Clearly, the big data revolution is fostering a powerful new type of data science. Having more comprehensive data sets at our disposal will enable more fine-grained long-tail analysis, microsegmentation, next best action, customer experience optimization, and digital marketing applications”– Forrester
Characteristics of Big Data
A New Era of Information Management
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Up to 10,000 Times larger
Up to 10,000 times faster
Traditional Data Warehouse and Business Intelligence
Da
ta S
ca
le
Data
Scale
yr mo wk day hr min sec … ms µs
Exa
Peta
Tera
Giga
Mega
Kilo
Decision FrequencyOccasional Frequent Real-time
Data in Motion
Da
ta a
t R
es
t
New “Big Data” Brings New Opportunities, Requires New Analytics
Telco Promotions
100,000 records/sec, 6B/day
10 ms/decision
270TB for Deep Analytics
DeepQA
100s GB for Deep Analytics
3 sec/decision
Smart Traffic
250K GPS probes/sec
630K segments/sec
2 ms/decision, 4K vehicles
Homeland Security
600,000 records/sec, 50B/day
1-2 ms/decision
320TB for Deep Analytics
© 2012 IBM Corporation44
Successful implementation of analytics capabilities provide value and can help companies create a competitive advantage
44
Source: The New Intelligent Enterprise, a joint MIT Sloan Management Review and IBM Institute of Business Value analytics research partnership. Copyright © Massachusetts Institute of Technology 2011.
IBM 2011 Tech Trends Report
How Organizations Use Analytics Analytics & Competitive Advantage
“Leaders of the smartest organizations have moved past “overwhelmed” and are already capitalizing on increased information richness and analytics to gain measurable competitive advantage.” – MIT
© 2012 IBM Corporation45
Analytics is a major trend that is impacting all business processes and transforming the way decisions are made
45
Source: Forrester
From To
Offline / Back office Embedded / Realtime
Detailed Reports Dashboards
Historical Predictive
Structured Unstructured
Behind Firewall Cloud / Mobile
“In 2011 and 2012, analytics will increasingly focus on decisions and collaboration. The new step is to provide simulation, prediction, optimization and other anlytics, not simply information, to empower even more decision flexibility at the time and place of every business process action.” - Gartner
Trends in Analytics Types of Analytics
“What is becoming clearer is that the real value from 'Big Data' will be derived from the high-end analytics, predominantly using data mining, statistics, optimization and forecasting type of capabilities to proactively turn this data into intelligence to drive business benefits and better decision making capabilities” – IDC
© 2012 IBM Corporation46
Traditional approaches are broken: Big data overwhelms traditional solutions
© 2012 IBM Corporation47
Let’s simplify this mess …
© 2012 IBM Corporation48
… and bring analytics into the warehouse
© 2012 IBM Corporation49
What is an Appliance?
� Dedicated device
� Optimized for purpose
� Complete solution
� Standard interfaces
� Easy installation
� Easy operation
� Easy management
� Easy support
� Low cost
© 2012 IBM Corporation50
© 2012 IBM Corporation51
© 2012 IBM Corporation
MensagensFinais
© 2012 IBM Corporation53
IT Service Provider “IT as a function of the business“
IT Strategy for the next decade: an evolution of today‘s focus topics
VirtualizationConsolidation
Cloud
AutomationAutomationAutomationAutomation
SOA
on demand
Service Management
Service QualityCyber CrimePrevention
Big Data
Analytics
Operational Excellence
MobilityCollaborationCollaborationCollaborationCollaboration
Open Source Social MediaData CenterOptimization
Appliances
Smart Devices
Cost Pressure
DataManagement
IT Security
...
...
© 2012 IBM Corporation54 54
Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers
Computing Everywhereand in Everything
Servers
PCs/Tablets
Mobiles
Embedded
Near Us
Far From Us
Touching Us
In Us
Sensory Devices
Bio-electronic Devices
Pre
sent
Futu
re
Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant
Paradigm)
Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)
New Computing Paradigms
+
Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing
QuantumComputing
Bio-Inspired Computation
Natural Interfacesand Connectivity
Touch Computing
Keyboard Entry
Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)
Nature
Work andLeisure
Biology
Computing without Programming
Fetch-> Decode -> Execute
Von Neumann Architectures
Non Von Neumann Architectures
© 2012 IBM Corporation55 55
Pulling it All Together: The Technology Frontiers
Computing Everywhereand in Everything
Servers
PCs/Tablets
Mobiles
Embedded
Near Us
Far From Us
Touching Us
In Us
Sensory Devices
Bio-electronic Devices
Pre
sent
Futu
re
Mobile Computing Era(Current Dominant
Paradigm)
Smarter Era(The Next Frontier)
New Computing Paradigms
+
Neuromorphic andCognitive Computing
QuantumComputing
Bio-Inspired Computation
Natural Interfacesand Connectivity
Touch Computing
Keyboard Entry
Sensory Computing(voice, movement, natural sensing, etc)
Nature
Work andLeisure
Biology
Computing without a Program
Fetch-> Decode -> Execute
Von Neumann Architectures
Non Von Neumann ArchitecturesIT Becomes Invisible Cognitive IT
© 2012 IBM Corporation
Futuro se torna passado rapidamente!
© 2012 IBM Corporation, 2012
Obrigado pela Atenção
Cezar Taurionctaurion@br.ibm.comwww.ibm.com/developerworks/blogs/page/ctaurionwww.computingonclouds.wordpress.comwww.debatendobigdata.wordpress.com@ctaurionFacebook, Linkedin, BranchOut