Post on 08-May-2015
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Cleaner Power –Safer Climate
THE CARBON BUDGET
To prevent global temperatures from rising above any given level
there is one cumulative budget for all future GHG emissions.
This is not an annual budget; it is a single budget for the future
that we can spend only once.
IEA 2° Energy CO2 Budget50% chance of exceeding 2°
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
884
607
277
Gt CO2Budget 2012-2050
Budget2012-2035
Budget2036-2050
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
Lock-in from Coal Power
• Large budget lock-in from:– existing coal plants – and new planned coal plants
New Coal Build 2012-2035: CPS (1709 GW)
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
China; 796.961435; 47%
India; 345.182699;
20%
USA; 57.43615184;
3%
Rest Asia; 245.08397599
; 14%
EU; 70.005598782
9999; 4%
Africa; 72.4428124;
4%
Russia; 41.7949993; 2%
Rest World; 80.4773667219997; 5%
Coal Power v. Carbon Budget
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
884
1049
Gt CO2
existing coal: 396 Gt
new coal: 654 Gt
Based on IEA, WEO 2012
119% of Budget
Cutting CO2 Lock-in from New Coal
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
524
654
165
22.422381795
Gt CO2
431 GW without
CCS
391 GWwith CCS
1709 GWwithout
CCS
Source: IEA, WEO 2012
Prime CCS Retrofit Candidates
Source: IEA CCS Retrofit Paper, 2012
Prime CCS Retrofits by Country
Source: IEA CCS Retrofit Paper, 2012
China, 481
USA, 20
India, 24
Japan, 25
Korea, 21
Carbon/Energy Impacts of CCS
• Cut CO2 from new fossil sources• Cut CO2 from existing sources pre-
retirement• Create space in the budget for easier
transition away from oil.• Reduce bio-energy pressure on
forested lands
Proposed CO2 Stds – New Power Plants
• New NGCC: 1000 lbs/MWh• New Coal: 1000-1100 lbs/MWh• Coal limit based on use of partial CCS• CAA does not require EPA to show a
technology is in commercial use at current power plants.
• EPA estimates LCOE of coal with partial CCS:20% more than SCPC w/out EOR; +/-5% with EOR sales (SCPC: $92; SCPC+CCS (no EOR):$110; SCPC+CCS+EOR:$88-96;Nuclear:$107)
CO2 Standards for Existing Plants
• 2.4 billion tons CO2 from existing plants each year
• Clean Air Act requires CO2 standards for existing plants (Section 111(d))
• EPA sets performance standards; states implement through SIPs
• Proposal 6/14; Final 6/15; SIPs due 6/16
Pollution cuts: 560 million tons less carbon pollution in 2020; twice the reductions from the clean car standards- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
- - Health protections: up to 3,600 lives saved, and thousands of asthma attacks and other health incidents prevented in 2020 alone - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Clean energy investments: $90 billion in energy efficiency and renewables investments between now and 2020- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Low costs: only $4 billion in compliance costs in 2020 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - Large benefits: $25-60 billion value of avoided climate change and health effects in 2020
NRDC PROPOSAL: LARGE BENEFITS, LOW COSTS
• FAIR: State-specific fossil-fleet average CO2 emission rate standards – Different standard for each state, recognizing differences in
baseline coal/gas generation mix– All fossil fuel generators within a state subject to same lbs/MWh
standard in 2020 and 2025
• FLEXIBLE: Full range of emission reduction measures count – Reducing heat rates at individual power plants– Shifting dispatch from high-emissions to low-emissions units– Credit for incremental renewables and energy efficiency – States may opt in to interstate averaging or credit trading– States may adopt alternative compliance plan that achieves
equivalent emission reductions
POLICY DESIGNSTRONG STANDARDS, MAXIMUM FLEXIBILITY
FLEXIBLE COMPLIANCE OPTIONS
Example Target Rate 1,500 lbs/MWh
2,000 lbs/MWh1,900 lbs/MWh
2,100 lbs/MWh
1,500 lbs/MWh
1,750 lbs/MWh
Starti
ng Emiss
ions Rate
Heat R
ate Im
prove
ments
Dispatc
h Shift
Renew
able
Genera
tion
End-U
se Effi
ciency
Combined Hea
t and Power
2020 Compliance
Emiss
ion Rate0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
lbs/
MW
h
1,600 lbs/MWh
2012 2020 Reference 2020 Policy0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
EfficiencyWindOther RenewablesGasCoalOtherNuclear
TWh
PROJECTED GENERATION CHANGES IN THE U.S. POWER SECTOR
2012 2020 Reference 2020 Policy0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
Efficiency/DRWindOther RenewablesGasCoalOtherNuclear
GW
PROJECTED CAPACITY CHANGES IN THE U.S. POWER SECTOR
COMPARATIVE WHOLESALE POWER PRICESFIVE-REGION AVERAGE (2010$/MWh)
Note: Generation-weighted average of PJM, Southeast (excluding Florida), MISO, NYISO, ISO-NE, accounting for 60% of national generation
2012 2014 2016 2018 20200
10
20
30
40
50
60
Reference Case Policy Case
Whole
sale
Pow
er
Pri
ces,
All
Hours
($/M
Wh)
COMPARATIVE HENRY HUB GAS PRICESNATIONAL AVERAGE (2010$/MMBtu)
Note: For the purposes of this assessment, natural gas prices are a projection of IPM based on assumed natural gas supply fundamentals and the power sector gas demand resulting from NRDC specified assumptions. Natural gas supply curves for the forecast years were developed based on the amount of resource available and the E&P finding and development costs (fixed and variable costs for exploration, development and O&M costs) associated with the different types of gas resources across the U.S. and Canada, accounting for LNG exports and imports.
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 20200.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
Reference Case Policy Case
Henry
H
ub G
as
Pri
ce (
2010$/M
MB
tu)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2020 - EPA VehicleStandards
2025 - EPA VehicleStandards
2020 - NRDCRecommended 111(d)Existing Power Plant
Standards
2025 - NRDCRecommended 111(d)Existing Power Plant
Standards
CO2
Emis
sion
s Red
uctio
ns (m
illio
n sh
ort t
ons)
Potential Reductions from Power Sector…Twice What’s Being Achieved by Clean Car Standards
MDV and HDV Standards
LDV Standard
Sources: EPA/NHTSA rule documents at http://www.epa.gov/otaq/climate/regulations.htm and NRDC estimates.
LDV Standard
MDV and HDV Standards
Note: The reductions shown are from BAU in the forecast years.
500 Million
900 Million
LESS CARBON
Source for historical CO2 emissions data: EIA.
Historical and NRDC-Projected Power Sector CO2 Emissions
Historical CO2 Emissions
Reference Case Emissions
NRDC Case Emissions
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
0
250
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
2,750
3,000
MIll
ion
Tons
of C
O2
STRONG STANDARDS MEAN HUGE EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS
Car and Power Plant Standards Get Us Four-Fifths of the Way to President’s 2020 Target (17% below 2005 levels by 2020 Reduction)
Historical emissions
2005 levels
HR 2454 – Where we need to get emissions to
2011 EIA projection
2012 EIA projection
2013 EIA projection
2013 Ext. Policy with power plant carbon standards
2013 EIA projection with extended policies, including second set of car standards
19901992
19941996
19982000
20022004
20062008
20102012
20142016
20182020
20222024
20262028
20302032
20340
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
8000
Ener
gy R
elat
ed C
O2
(MM
TCO
2)
LARGE BENEFITS, LOW COSTS
COSTS BENEFITS
CO2 BenefitsSO2 and NOX BenefitsCompliance Costs
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
Mill
ion
2010
$
Compliance Costs Low Estimate2020
High Estimate2020
$4 Billion
$25 Billion
$60 Billion
CONTACTS AND ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
Daniel A. LashofOffice: 202-289-2399 | 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011dlashof@nrdc.org | www.nrdc.org
David DonigerOffice: 202-289-2403 | 1152 15th Street, NW, Suite 300, Washington, DC 20005ddoniger@nrdc.org | www.nrdc.org
David Hawkins Office: 202-289-2400 | 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011dhawkins@nrdc.org | www.nrdc.org
Starla Yeh Office: 212-727-4632 | 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011syeh@nrdc.org | www.nrdc.org
FOR MORE INFORMATION AND ADDITIONAL MATERIALS, PLEASE VISIT:http://www.nrdc.org/air/pollution-standards/