Post on 24-Feb-2016
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Partisans vs. Independents
• Generally speaking, do you consider yourself a Dem., Rep., or independent
– [If D or r]: Would you call yourself a strong [D or R]?
– [If Ind]: Would you say you think of yourself as closer to the Ds or Rs
Partisans vs. Independents• As of 2008:
– Strong D 19– Weak D 15– Ind D 17 51 D– Ind 11 11 I– Ind R 12 37 R– Weak R 13– Strong R 13
Partisanship trends
Partisans vs. Independents
• When we lump independent‘leaners’ in w/ partisans, not much change in D vs. R distribution since 1984
• Slight GOP gain– some oscillation
• What about those independents?
Partisans vs. Independents
Trends in US Party ID; 1952 - 2006
Independents vs. Partisans
Partisans vs. Independents
• What do these responses mean?• Party Identification strongest predictor of
voting– learned early, social transmition– rarely changes over lifetime
• see F&Z figures
Partisans vs. IndependentsFunnel of Partisanship Causality
socialbackground
Party attachments
Values
Groups
campaignevents vote
Time (years & years)
Partisans vs. Independents
• Partisans– identify w/ party early– identification stronger over lifetime– partisans more interested in politics– Today, Party ID an even stronger predictor of
voting than ever • 90%+ of strong ID vote w/ party• hence, elections somewhat predictable
Partisans vs. Independents
• Independents– fastest growing group of voters ‘leaners’– ID as “independent” but say they are “closer” to
one particular party– Leaners may act more ‘partisan’ than weak
partisans sometimes• Vote party if forced to chose btwn D and R• Highly interested
Partisans vs. Independents
• Independents– but, independents less happy w/ choices than
weak or strong partisans
– more willing to defect if offered a 3rd choice
– Important aspect of dealignment• more independents, who are more volitile
Partisans vs. IndependentsDoes a party represent you reasonably well
Partisans vs. Independents
Partisans vs. Independents
• Anderson (+ others) 1980– 26% of Ind Dems, 14% of Ind, 12% of weak R
• Perot 1992– 23% of Ind Dems, 36% of Ind, 26% of Ind R, 25% of
weak Rs• Nader 2000
– 8% of Ind Dems, 6% of Ind, 6% Ind Reps– 0% from weak/strong partisans