Pathways to the Futures of EducationAnticipating change and taking informed actions

Hawai‘i P-20 Partnership for EducationKo‘olau Ballrooms and Conference Center, 11/13/15

Richard Kaipo Lum, PhD

Vision Foresight Strategy LLC“Reframing the future.”www.visionforesightstrategy.com

richard@visionforesightstrategy.com

FUTURES STUDIESUnderstanding and anticipating change in society

Understand and anticipate change in society…and then help others reframe their expectations and preferences for the future.

Two Complementary Aspects

Analytic: understanding

and anticipating change

Synthetic: reframing

expectations and preferences

Foresight:

Insight into how and why the future could be different from the present.

Elements of Our Work

Historical analysis

Images of the future

Theories of change and stability Trends & emerging issues

Forecasting

Preferred futures

Innovation & creativity

Theories of ChangeHow and why to societies, industries, communities, and organizations change?

• “Long wave” theories of economic change

• Diffusion of technology throughout society

• Pathways of institutional change

Scanning and Emerging Issues AnalysisSearching for signals of potentially important developments.

• Anticipating future public policy issues

• Exploring future technologies

• Tracking the rise of new concepts and philosophies

The “new normal”Rapid maturation,“mainstreaming”

Academic/scientificexploration

Fringe thinking

Who Uses Foresight?

SOCIAL AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE

It’s happened before, and it will happen again

The “Roadmap” in the 1950s

The “Roadmap” Today…?

TRENDS & EMERGING ISSUESScanning for Signals of Emerging Change

Trends Emerging Issues

Trends vs. Emerging Issues

• Generational change• Digitization (everything)• Ubiquitous internet

access• Shrinking middle class• Rising income inequality• Rising global economic

competition

• Decline of US student performance

• Rising cost of college ed• Decreasing funding for

public education• Rising dissatisfaction

with ed outcomes• Shift to career readiness

A Few Trends…

• Adaptive learning• Alternative

credentialing• Augmented/virtual

reality• Artificial intelligence• Big data• Co-production/co-

learning

• Internet of things• Learning analytics• Nanodegrees• Online education• Open educational

resources• Tighter coupling of

employer interests and educational design

…And Some Emerging Issues

IMAGES OF THE FUTUREVisions shape actions and perceptions

Unwinding Higher Ed

The Reformed Institution

Bifurcation of Learning

Competing Images of the Future

RESPONSES TO CHANGEAnticipating the reactions of stakeholders

Three Basic Responses to Change

TYPES OF STRATEGIESSelecting the best approach to achieving goals

A concept or theory for how, in a given context and employing a given set of resources and competencies, you expect to achieve your goals

Strategy

Conflict Competition Coincidence

Three Categories of Strategies

Control the dynamic

Divide and conquer

Hit them where it

hurts

Deterrence

Take small bites

Negotiate while

advancing

Strategies of Conflict

Segmentation (of the market)

Differentiation (within the

market)

Cost leadership (within the

market)

Strategies of Competition

Stepping stone

Building block

EcosystemNetwork

Seeding

Strategies of Coincidence

Now let’s play with some of these ideas…

4 Steps to the Future: A Quick and Clean Guide to ForesightBy Richard Lum

Intended to guide business readers through a complete and easy-to-use process for foresight.

The book will:• Provide a complete A-to-Z

foresight process in simple and straight forward language

• Outline the exercises for running your own workshops

• Provide the worksheets needed to lead workshop participants to producing results

• Give readers the confidence that their organization is asking the right questions about the future

December 2015

Mahalo.