Post on 15-Aug-2020
transcript
Paul Nitschke, NEFSC & Jamie Cournane, PhD, PDT Chair
SSC Meeting October 13-14, 2015
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Individual Stock Presentation 19 Groundfish Stocks
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Overview • Introduction summary table and PDT memo (does
not include all sources of uncertainty or all reviewer comments).
• Status table (short report 2nd table) • Biomass (mt) and exploitation plots (short report). • PDT catch performance plots for individual stocks. • OFL and ABC tables at 75%FMSY and lowest 75%FMSY
catch (2016-2018) held constant. • No FRebuild projections or OFLs estimates from
sensitivity runs (PDT can take new OFL requests).
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Individual Stock Details: Catch Plots (Catch History, ABCs, Projections)
• CY 2005- CY 2014 total catch • Historical FY ABCs (ABCs on the books) • PDT CY2015 catch assumption • FMSY and 75%FMSY projected catch • Assessment overfishing history:
“Yes” , “No”, “unknown” whether overfishing was occurring in terminal year of assessment
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Southern Windowpane MODEL AIM
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT NA
UNCERTAINTIES Data limited assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
General category scallop discards should be added to the assessment.
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Southern Windowpane
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Southern Windowpane
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Southern Windowpane
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Southern Windowpane
year OFL ABC 2016 833 623 2017 833 623 2018 833 623
OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant
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Northern Windowpane MODEL AIM
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING 2017 (No Projection)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT NA
UNCERTAINTIES Data limited assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
General category scallop discards should be added to the assessment.
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Northern Windowpane
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Northern Windowpane
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Northern Windowpane
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Northern Windowpane
year OFL ABC 2016 243 182 2017 243 182 2018 243 182
OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant
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Halibut MODEL NA (Replacement Yield Model Rejected)
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is unknown
REBUILDING 2056 (No Projection)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT NA
UNCERTAINTIES Data limited assessment, stock structure
REVIEWER COMMENTS Low catchability in NEFSC surveys
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Halibut
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Halibut
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Maine/ New
Hampshire Trawl Survey
Fall
Spring
Halibut
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Halibut
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Maine DMR
Halibut
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Halibut
year OFL ABC 2016 210 158 2017 210 158 2018 210 158
Constant OFL = 2015 OFL(198 mt) + 6% for 5y Constant ABC = 75% of the OFL
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
MODEL VPA
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is occurring
REBUILDING On schedule (2023)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT yes
UNCERTAINTIES retrospective pattern
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The assumed M (0.2) is inconsistent with the recently revised assumptions for other yellowtail stocks
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 555 427 0.21 2,483 2017 707 547 0.21 3,026 2018 874 672 0.21 3,820
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 555 427 0.21 2,485 2017 707 427 0.161 3,074 2018 900 427 0.125 4,053
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
Cape Cod/Gulf of Maine Yellowtail
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MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is occurring
REBUILDING Was rebuilt in 2011 with low recruitment scenario. May need a new plan.
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT Not accepted by reviewers
UNCERTAINTIES Major retrospective pattern
REVIEWER COMMENTS
67% of the projected realizations were not feasible, because they could not support the preliminary estimate of 2015 catch
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 130 101 0.262 490 2017 170 131 0.262 682 2018 249 191 0.262 1127
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 130 101 0.263 491 2017 170 101 0.197 700 2018 256 101 0.129 1192
2015 catch = 478 mt 75%Fmsy Projection
2015 catch = 478 mt First Year Constant Projection
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder
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2015 catch = 422 mt 75%Fmsy Projection
2015 catch = 422 mt First Year Constant Projection
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 144 111 0.262 534 2017 180 139 0.262 714 2018 256 196 0.262 1148
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 144 111 0.261 535 2017 180 111 0.204 732 2018 262 111 0.138 1210
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Yellowtail Flounder Projections with updated bridge year catch estimate of 422mt
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Wolffish MODEL SCALE
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Undefined
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT No (Model uncertainty estimates not available)
UNCERTAINTIES Ocean Pout Bigelow conversion, discard mortality rate (8%) , retrospective pattern, maturation, selectivity
REVIEWER COMMENTS
There is no indication in the data that recruitment has increased recently.
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Wolffish
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Wolffish
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Wolffish
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Wolffish
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Wolffish
year OFL ABC 2016 110 82 2017 110 82 2018 110 82
OFL = FMSY x Exploitable Biomass Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x Exploitable Biomass Constant
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Ocean Pout MODEL Indexed Based
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Did not rebuild by 2014
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT NA
UNCERTAINTIES Data limited assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The stock has not responded to low catch as expected.
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Ocean Pout
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Ocean Pout
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Ocean Pout
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Ocean Pout
year OFL ABC 2016 220 165 2017 220 165 2018 220 165
OFL = FMSY x kg/tow Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x kg/tow Constant
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Georges Bank Cod MODEL NA (ASAP model Rejected)
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is Unknown
REBUILDING 2026 (no projection)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT NA
UNCERTAINTIES No analytical assessment
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Status quo catch may not be appropriate for the current stock status and survey trends.
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Georges Bank Cod
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year OFL ABC 2016 1,665 1,249 2017 1,665 1,249 2018 1,665 1,249
OFL = 1665 mt Reduction in average catch using recent survey
trend (-24% per year) Constant Three Years
ABC = 75% of OFL
Georges Bank Cod
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Georges Bank Cod
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MODEL VPA
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT Yes
UNCERTAINTIES Uncertainty with 2013 year class
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The 2013 year class is not well estimated. Based on recent observations from dominant year classes in the fishery and surveys, density dependent growth should be expected.
Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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Georges Bank Haddock
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year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 160,385 123,000 0.293 1,180,381 2017 249,732 192,075 0.293 1,276,959 2018 316,320 246,848 0.293 1,058,276
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 160,385 123,000 0.293 1,180,009 2017 249,732 123,000 0.182 1,295,329 2018 334,494 123,000 0.129 1,158,787
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
Georges Bank Haddock
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MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT No
UNCERTAINTIES Uncertainty with large 2012 and 2013 year class. Possible changes in selectivity with year class effects.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Although density-dependent growth has not been observed for this stock, there have been strong density-dependent effects for haddock in other areas from dominant year classes.
Gulf of Maine Haddock
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Gulf of Maine Haddock
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Gulf of Maine Haddock
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Gulf of Maine Haddock
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Gulf of Maine Haddock
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year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 4,717 3,630 0.351 25,635 2017 5,873 4,534 0.351 25,915 2018 6,218 4,815 0.351 22,532
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 4,717 3,630 0.351 25,647 2017 5,873 3,630 0.276 26,174 2018 6,454 3,630 0.246 23,686
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
Gulf of Maine Haddock
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MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is occurring
REBUILDING 2024 (possible when F=0 for some scenarios)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT No (M=0.2 model has a retrospective pattern)
UNCERTAINTIES It is unclear as to which level of natural mortality (M=0.2 or 0.4) to assume for the short-term projections under the M-ramp model.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Major sources of uncertainty include the natural mortality assumption and retrospective error in the updated M=0.2 model.
Gulf of Maine Cod
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Gulf of Maine Cod
M=0.2 model M=0.2 model
M-ramp model M-ramp model
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M=0.2 model
M-ramp model
Gulf of Maine Cod
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Gulf of Maine Cod
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M=0.2 model
Gulf of Maine Cod
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M=0.2 model
Gulf of Maine Cod
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Harvest strategy Year Input
M=0.2 model No retro adjustment Retrospective adjustment Catch (mt)
Spawning stock
biomass (mt)
Ffull Catch (mt)
Spawning stock
biomass (mt)
Ffull
2014 Model result
1,471 2,225 0.956 1,471 1,443 1.390
2015 Assumed catch
279 3,045 0.111 279 1,961 0.174
FMSY 2016 Projection 697 4,400 0.185 438 2,777 0.185 2017 Projection 939 5,852 0.185 596 3,723 0.185 2018 Projection 1,211 7,601 0.185 773 4,854 0.185 2014 Model
result 1,471 2,225 0.956 1,471 1,443 1.390
2015 Assumed catch
279 3,045 0.111 279 1,961 0.174
75% FMSY
2016 Projection 533 4,435 0.139 335 2,800 0.139
2017 Projection 738 6,048 0.139 468 3,848 0.139 2018 Projection 974 8,015 0.139 621 5,113 0.139
Gulf of Maine Cod
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Harvest strategy Year Input
M-ramp model M=0.2 M=0.4 Catch (mt)
Spawning stock
biomass (mt)
Ffull Catch (mt)
Spawning stock
biomass (mt)
Ffull
2014 Model result
1,471 2,536 0.932 1,471 2,536 0.932
2015 Assumed catch
279 3,219 0.112 279 3,057 0.123
FMSY 2016 Projection 748 4,950 0.187 555 3,841 0.187 2017 Projection 1,085 7,062 0.187 662 4,536 0.187 2018 Projection 1,507 9,674 0.187 765 5,220 0.187 2014 Model
result 1,471 2,536 0.932 1,471 2,536 0.932
2015 Assumed catch
279 3,219 0.112 279 3,057 0.123
75% FMSY
2016 Projection 570 4,988 0.140 423 3,871 0.140
2017 Projection 847 7,278 0.140 517 4,672 0.140 2018 Projection 1,201 10,141 0.140 609 5,464 0.140
Gulf of Maine Cod
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OFL = Average (m=0.2 model at FMSY in 2016, M-ramp model M=0.2 at FMSY in 2016 and M-ramp model M=0.4
at FMSY in 2016) Constant ABC = 75% of OFL
Year OFL 75% of the OFL2016 667 5002017 667 5002018 667 500
Gulf of Maine Cod
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American Plaice MODEL VPA
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING 2024 (on schedule)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT yes
UNCERTAINTIES Reductions in mean weights at age.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
A major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.
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American Plaice
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American Plaice
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American Plaice
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American Plaice
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American Plaice
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 1,695 1,297 0.147 8,743 2017 1,748 1,336 0.147 8,740 2018 1,840 1,404 0.147 9,417
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 1,695 1,297 0.147 8,740 2017 1,748 1,297 0.142 8,752 2018 1,846 1,297 0.134 9,484
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
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Witch Flounder MODEL VPA
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is occurring
REBUILDING 2017 (Cannot rebuild)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT Yes
UNCERTAINTIES A major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Compared to the 2012 assessment, the magnitude of the retrospective pattern has increased slightly for F and decreased slightly for SSB.
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Witch Flounder
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Witch Flounder
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Witch Flounder
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Witch Flounder
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Witch Flounder
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 513 394 0.209 3,220 2017 925 567 0.209 4,278 2018 938 719 0.209 5,441
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 513 394 0.209 3.220 2017 925 394 0.142 4,310 2018 974 394 0.106 5,662
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
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White Hake MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING 2014 (Did not rebuild, SSB2014/SSBmsy = 88%)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT No
UNCERTAINTIES
Pool age length key, species mis-id, recent addition of an extra-large market category, survey residuals at the end of the time series
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The magnitude of the SSB retrospective pattern was less than but near the upper bound of the confidence interval and is a source of uncertainty. The previous assessment over estimated abundance of ages 2-5, which do not contribute much to the estimate of SSB. Therefore, previous projections were overly optimistic. 84
White Hake
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White Hake
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White Hake
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White Hake
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White Hake
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 4,985 3,816 0.141 29,619 2017 4,816 3,686 0.141 28,711 2018 4,733 3,622 0.141 28,355
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 4,985 3,622 0.133 29,672 2017 4,847 3,622 0.137 28,911 2018 4,775 3,622 0.14 28,608
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY Last Year Constant Projection
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Redfish MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT Yes
UNCERTAINTIES Survey residual pattern at the end of the time series, Dimorphic growth
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Major sources of uncertainty are the retrospective pattern, lack of age samples from the commercial fishery, historical discard estimates and model inconsistencies.
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Redfish
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Redfish
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Redfish
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Redfish
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Redfish
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 13,723 10,338 0.028 368,571 2017 14,665 11,050 0.028 387,014 2018 15,260 11,501 0.028 401,143
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 13,723 10,338 0.028 368,574 2017 14,665 10,338 0.026 387,285 2018 15,286 10,338 0.025 402,292
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
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Georges Bank Winter Flounder
MODEL VPA
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is occurring
REBUILDING 2017 (Cannot rebuild)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT yes
UNCERTAINTIES Natural mortality, lack of discards from Canadian trawl fishery, lack of age data from DFO survey
REVIEWER COMMENTS
The major source of uncertainty is the retrospective pattern.
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Georges Bank Winter Flounder
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Georges Bank Winter Flounder
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Georges Bank Winter Flounder
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Georges Bank Winter Flounder
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year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 957 755 0.402 2,295 2017 1,056 830 0.402 2,595 2018 1,431 1,110 0.402 3,581
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 957 755 0.402 2,293 2017 1,056 755 0.36 2,617 2018 1,459 755 0.252 3,786
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
Georges Bank Winter Flounder
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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
MODEL Survey Area-swept Biomass
STOCK STATUS Overfished Unknown & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Unknown
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT NA
UNCERTAINTIES Q assumption, no analytical model, lack of response to low exploitation, not analytical model
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Biomass-based reference points cannot be determined
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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
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GOM Winter Flounder
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90% confidence intervals are shown for biomass and exploitation rate
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
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OFL = 1080 mt Update 2015 Fall 2014
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
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Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
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year OFL ABC 2016 1,080 810 2017 1,080 810 2018 1,080 810
OFL = FMSY x 30+ cm Biomass Constant ABC = 75%FMSY x 30+ cm Biomass Constant
Gulf of Maine Winter Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING 2023 (Rebuilds at 40% probability with F=0)
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT No
UNCERTAINTIES Recruitment continues to decline, natural mortality
REVIEWER COMMENTS
Change in productivity and poor fit to some survey data.
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
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Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
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SNE Winter Flounder
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year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 1,041 802 0.244 4,782 2017 1,017 780 0.244 4,020 2018 1,584 1,216 0.244 4,980
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 1,041 780 0.237 4,786 2017 1,021 780 0.243 4,041 2018 1,587 780 0.152 5,065
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY Second Year Constant Projection
Southern New England/Mid-Atlantic Winter Flounder
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Pollock MODEL ASAP
STOCK STATUS Not Overfished & Overfishing is not occurring
REBUILDING Rebuilt
RETROSPECTIVE ADJUSTMENT Yes
UNCERTAINTIES Dome selectivity assumption in both surveys and the fishery, Retrospective pattern
REVIEWER COMMENTS Cryptic Biomass
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Pollock
Dome Dome
Flat Flat
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Pollock
Dome
Flat
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Pollock
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Pollock
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Pollock
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 27,668 21,312 0.307 178,534 2017 32,004 24,731 0.307 182,067 2018 33,966 26,252 0.307 180,603
year OFL ABC F SSB 2016 27,668 21,312 0.307 178,534 2017 32,004 21,312 0.261 181,807 2018 34,745 21,312 0.0238 184,116
75%FMSY Projection
75%FMSY First Year Constant Projection
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The End
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