Post on 31-Mar-2015
transcript
Peak Oil,Implications for planning
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Oil vulnerability: managing the riskWally Wight ASPO Brisbane – 04 June 2013
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Oil depletion’s impact on human settlement is not new
Global discovery peaked in 1964USA production peaked in 1971Canada (once considered inexhaustible) peaked in 1973Australia peaked in 2000I only became aware of peak oil (though not by that
name) nearly 60 years ago by land use change when my first school closed due to a lack of students.
The Turner Valley Oilfield, Alberta, Canada (scene of my childhood and a microcosm of the global scene), had peaked 15 years before.
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
The Turner Valley Oil Rush14 May 1914, Dingman No 1
blew in:It hit pay dirt at 800 metres
depth yielding 400 000 cu m/day of natural gas pushing out a gusher of oil
Within 24 hours, promoters had formed more than 500 oil companies!
During the “boom”, a string of “shantytowns” mushroomed:
NapthaGlen Mede (my
first school)HartellMercuryLittle Chicago
(Royalties) population 1350
Little New York (Longview)
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Community development
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Use and Abuse: “Hell’s half-acre”
Up to the 1940’s, Turner Valley had been the most productive field in the entire British Empire:
25 000 barrels of oil/day20 million Cu M of gas/dayGas had little market value
and the “excess” (enough to satisfy New York City’s energy needs) was simply burned off in massive flares.
Production peaked in 1940.
After the peak: 1950’s reduced gas pressure
meant pumps were required Automation reduced labour
demand, resulting in job losses and depopulation.
1960’s depeted oil levels were addressed by water injection.
1970’s more wells and pumps were introduced to extract from increasingly isolated pockets.
Current flurry of horizontal drilling and new pumping technology.
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Changing Technologies
“Rural renewal” of townships
NapthaGlen MedeHartellMercury
(refinery explosion in 1951)
Royalties
All reconverted to farmland
Longview the only survivor
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Community deconstruction
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Lessons from this past experience:Oil depletion is real, and
already happening.
Wastage and excesses make the impacts orders of magnitude worse.
70+ years post-peak, there is still oil to be had from Turner Valley, but progressively lower in volume and more difficult and expensive to extract.
We need to recognise that it is happening.
We need to curb our wastage and excess early to minimise the impact.
Globally, we are already very late in preparing and responding to the end of cheap oil.
So when do we have to act?
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
If a crash program to reduce oil use or to switch from oil to renewable energy had begun:
20 years before Peak Oil (from 1986?): Possibility of avoiding a world liquid fuels shortfall for the forecast period. Slight economic disruptions.
10 years before Peak Oil (from 1996?): Liquid fuels shortfall for roughly a decade after the time that oil would have peaked.Moderate economic disruptions.
0 years before Peak Oil (from 2006?): Significant liquid fuel deficit for more than two decades. Severe economic disruptions (as started in 2008? 2nd dip soon?)
Current switch to “unconventionals”
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Already, we are relying more on unconventional sources, and are now facing the risks and consequences.
Actual 1999 BP advertisement
Can alternative fuels help?
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Likely Oil Depletion “Events”
1. Sudden critical supply interruptionSharp price risesReduced availability of supply (queueing, rationing)
2. Intermittent supply constraintsVolatile price fluctuations (our experience of the last five years),
and/orSharp volatility of demand affected by price (ditto)
3. Progressive supply constraints global increase in demand competitionIncreased retention of reserves by exporters, and associated price rises (CSIRO models $8.00/litre)
Transport is dependent on oil
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Australia’s oil consumption: 72% for transport 8.5% for mining 7.1% for chemicals
Oil-based plastics are Highly vulnerable Toxic and non-recyclable Minimal local value capture
4.8% for agriculture
Transport is over 90% oil dependent
Energy consumed by vehicles (Qld) More than half of energy is consumed by private passenger cars Trucks and light commercial vehicles share most of the balance
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Australia relies disproportionately on road transport .
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
In spite of increasing vulnerability, the proportion of freight taken on trucks is actually growing.
Our dispersed population and economic activity makes the flexibility of trucking compelling.
Transport infrastructure investment tends to favour roads to facilitate increased road freight.
Our communities are at riskFor any decision
regarding capital expenditure or operations:
Will this initiative exacerbate oil vulnerability?
Or will it reduce vulnerability?
The viability and sustainability of our communities’ are at stake.
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
We can’t simply build our way out of oil vulnerability .
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Reliance on more infrastructure as a possible solution is problematic.
Conventional construction of transport infrastructure is still very oil intensive in both materials and machinery
So how can we respond? .Identify and quantify oil
usage in each sector and operation,
Identify vulnerable activities and processes,
Review how critical those vulnerable activities and processes are, then
Assess the risks and consequences of the oil depletion events.
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We require a transformation
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
From:Sprawling, Car-based monocultures
To:Functionally diverse,Locally self-reliant,Economically productive,Socially inclusive,Energy and water efficient,Less carbon intensive, andMore resilient settlement patterns
Post-Peak, How will we exchange goods and services? .
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Choice of transit modes
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Walking and cycling are most sustainable;
Buses, trams and trains carry people more efficiently and amenably than cars do...and can share the public realm;
Ferries (or kayaks) turn the rivers and the Bay from barriers to connectors
…and make transit an absolute pleasure!
Using domestic solar to charge the car frees us from hydrocarbons
Energy storage in the car’s battery addresses one of the key challenges of domestic solar
The effectiveness of the combination will depend on when the car is being charged and when used.
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Integrate home and vehicle energy .
Goods and Services can be Produced and Exchanged Locally .
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Integration of land use to minimise transport -(compact, accessible and permeable mixed-use centres to live, work and play, requiring minimum motorised travel)
Use public transport, walking and cyclingBuy local – reduce commodity kilometresSubstitute oil-dependent products in favour of
renewable and local alternativesGet used to living with less – human exchange is
more important than commodity exchange.
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Designing our Urban “places”Our cities and “places” must support human exchange …not just “keep the vehicles moving”.
We live in cities to maximise exchange with a minimum of travel.
Only at the pedestrian scale and at pedestrian pace, is valuable human exchange possible.
Reducing reliance on vehicles not only reduces oil vulnerability, but will help our cities function.
What can place-based planning do?Identify opportunities to
reduce vulnerability Reinforce land use to
minimise travel (the most economical trip is the trip not taken)
Change modes, Change logistics, Substitute less
vulnerable activities and processes,
Find efficiencies and economies for activities and processes that cannot be avoided
Find alternative energies or fuels
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Social and Land use Responses
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Transport vulnerability is addressed by non-transport solutions
TOD: Co-location and intensification of diverse land uses
Localisation and self-containment of employment, supply chains, production, and economic activity
Some Councils have taken the initiative to address vulnerability of not just their own operations, but also their communities.Maribyrnong, VicSterling, WASunshine Coast, QldGold Coast, Qld
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Local government’s role
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Statutory support was emerging .Towards Q2 2020 Target: Cut by one-
third Queenslanders’ carbon footprint with reduced car and electricity use
Qld Government had adopted an oil vulnerability report and was preparing an Oil Vulnerability Strategy
FNQ and SEQ Regional Plans require oil vulnerability to be addressed – but will these provisions survive?
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
…and professional interest ASPO has long supported initiatives to raise awareness (eg. Brisbane
Chapter locally-produced movie “Australia Pumping Empty”)
The Planning Institute of Australia dedicated its December 2010 Australian Planner issue to peak oil and is preparing a book of the findings,
ASPO Brisbane and Griffith University are hosting this oil vulnerability symposium.
So the oil vulnerability issue is gaining credence and traction…
What we must do to respond to peak oil is exactly what must be done for urban transformation
Transition is an awesome responsibility
Are we ready?
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Conclusions
ASPO-AustraliaAustralian Association for the Study of Peak Oil & Gas
Thank youWally Wight
wwight@gil.com.au
0417 741 377
Coordinator Brisbane Chapter
ASPO Australia
Adjunct Senior Research Fellow
Curtin University Sustainability Policy (CUSP) Institute