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1NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Perspectives of clean coal technologies in Poland
Wojciech Suwala
AGH-University of Science and Technology
Faculty of Fuels and Energy
2NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Presentation plan
• Basic facts on Polish energy system
• Model of power generation
• Power generation technologies 2002-2020
• Decomposition of CO2 emissions reduction
• Conclusions
3NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Basic facts on Polish energy system
• 70% of TPES from coal
• 94% of electricity and heat generated form hard coal and lignite
4NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Basic facts on Polish energy system- challenges
• LCP directive - derogations
• EU accession treaty – country limits
• ETS
– 280 Mt CO2 required
– 208 Mt CO2 assigned
• Renewables obligation
5NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Model of power generation - 1
• Bottom-up model
• Emissions constraints (SO2, NOx, PM)
• Carbon tax to mitigate CO2 emissions
• 100 coal grades
• Variable demands
6NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Model of power generation -2
• Partial equilibrium
• Objective function: consumers + producers surplus MAX
• Time horizon: 2002-2020
• Linear programming GAMS/CPLEX
7NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Model of power generationscenarios 1
SO2, NOx, PM
emissions reduction as in EU Accession Treaty for the whole country (bubble)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
000 t
/year
SO2
NOX
PM
8NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Model of power generationscenarios 2
Renewables obligation:
9% of electricity production from 2010
CO2 - carbon tax: 0 - 30 €/t
9NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Resultstechnologies mix, carbon tax 0 €/t CO2
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020
PJ/
year
Nuclear
Renewables
Natural gas
Traditionallignite
Clean coal
Traditionalcoal
10NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Results technologies mix, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020
PJ/
year
Nuclear
Renewables
Natural gas
Traditionallignite
Clean coal
Traditionalcoal
c
11NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Results technologies mix, 2020
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
0 5 10 15 20 22 25 27 30
Carbon tax €/t CO2
PJ/
y
Nuclear
Renewables
Clean coal
Traditional coal
Coal
12NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Results technologies mix, 2020
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 5 10 15 20 22 25 27 30
Carbon tax €/t CO2
Nuclear
Renewables
Clean coal
Traditional coal
13NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Existing lignite public power plants - life
extension3%
New wind turbine3%
Existing hydro power plants
3%
New nuclear power plant15%
Existing hard coal autoproducers CHP
plants - plain modernization + gas
turbine8%
CHP hard coal public plants - plain
modernization + gas turbine
9%
Existing hard coal public power plants - life
extension7%
New geothermal heat plants
5%
Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life
extension47%
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2
14NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Existing lignite public power plants - life
extension3%
New wind turbine3%
Existing hydro power plants
3%
New nuclear power plant15%
Existing hard coal autoproducers CHP
plants - plain modernization + gas
turbine8%
CHP hard coal public plants - plain
modernization + gas turbine
9%
Existing hard coal public power plants - life
extension7%
New geothermal heat plants
5%
Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life
extension47%
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2
Existing hard coal CHP public plants -
life extension
47%
15NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Existing lignite public power plants - life
extension3%
New wind turbine3%
Existing hydro power plants
3%
New nuclear power plant15%
Existing hard coal autoproducers CHP
plants - plain modernization + gas
turbine8%
CHP hard coal public plants - plain
modernization + gas turbine
9%
Existing hard coal public power plants - life
extension7%
New geothermal heat plants
5%
Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life
extension47%
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2
New nuclear
15%
16NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Existing lignite public power plants - life
extension3%
New wind turbine3%
Existing hydro power plants
3%
New nuclear power plant15%
Existing hard coal autoproducers CHP
plants - plain modernization + gas
turbine8%
CHP hard coal public plants - plain
modernization + gas turbine
9%
Existing hard coal public power plants - life
extension7%
New geothermal heat plants
5%
Existing hard coal CHP public plants - life
extension47%
Technologies in 2020, carbon tax 25 €/t CO2
3%
3%
3%
5%
8%
9%
7%
17NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Results CO2 emissions for carbon tax 0 – 30 €/t CO2
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
2002 2003 2004 2005 2010 2015 2020
CO
2 em
issi
on
s M
t
0
10
20
25
30
18NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Decomposition principleShapley/Sun method
X1
X2
ΔX1
ΔX2
X10
X20
Z=X1*X2
Δ Z(X1)= ΔX1*X20+1/2* ΔX1* ΔX2
Δ Z(X2)= ΔX2*X10+1/2* ΔX1* ΔX2
19NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Decomposition identity
demanddemandenergy
primary
energy
primaryemissions
potential
emissions
potentialemissions
emissions ***
20NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Decomposition identity
demanddemandenergy
primary
energy
primaryemissions
potential
emissions
potentialemissions
emissions ***
process factor – related to:
• physical / chemical properties of the technologies
• fuel quality adjustment
21NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Decomposition identity
demanddemandenergy
primary
energy
primaryemissions
potential
emissions
potentialemissions
emissions ***
fuel factor – related to emissions properties of fuels used
22NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Decomposition identity
demanddemandenergy
primary
energy
primaryemissions
potential
emissions
potentialemissions
emissions ***
efficiency factor – related to amount of
primary energy used to satisfy demand
23NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Decomposition identity
demanddemandenergy
primary
energy
primaryemissions
potential
emissions
potentialemissions
emissions ***
demand factor
24NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Emissions decomposition
effectdemand
effectefficiency
effectfuel
effectprocess
emissionsCO
2
effect = Δ factor
25NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
CO2 emissions reduction – effects contributioncarbon tax 10 €/t CO2
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mt
CO
2
PROCESS
FUEL
EFFICIENCY
DEMAND
26NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
CO2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 25 €/t CO2
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mt
CO
2
PROCESS
FUEL
EFFICIENCY
DEMAND
27NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
CO2 emissions reduction – effects contribution carbon tax 30 €/t CO2
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
2005 2010 2015 2020
Mt
CO
2
PROCESS
FUEL
EFFICIENCY
DEMAND
28NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Conclusions 1/2
• Coal technologies should have still a large
share in energy supply for Poland
• Traditional coal technologies need to be
replaced by clean coal technologies
• Increase of demand could be balanced by
renewable and nuclear energy
29NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Conclusions 2/2
• Major factors which in longer term
contribute to CO2 emissions reduction are
fuels switch and efficiency increase, the
latter enhances the role of clean coal
technologies
• Demand decreases contribute to emissions
reduction basically in short term
30NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Thank you for your attention
31NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Reversed demand curve
QR Q
PR
P
PR – Reference price equal for all years
QR – Reference demand - forecasts
32NEEDS Forum 2 - Energy Supply Security – Kraków 5-6 July 2007
Unit cost of energy €/PJ
0.00
4.00
8.00
12.00
16.00
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Year
Un
it c
ost
€/P
J
0
5
10
20
22
25
27
30