1

Polar Bear Status Update, Moscow, 2013

Conservation Status, and Potential Threats

IUCN/SSC Polar Bear Specialist Group

Because all risks to polar bear conservation must be

placed in the context of human caused global warming

the time frame is critical to any discussion.

Think of 3 major time frames:

Long View Certainty-Mid Century+

Near Term Uncertainty

Where we are now

Polar Bear

Distribution:

Circumpolar in

19

subpopulations

5

Four major ecoregions

6

Regardless of

Ecoregion--

Polar bears depend on

the sea-ice surface for

catching their prey

7

Polar bears feed

almost exclusively on

ringed and bearded

8

This marine dependence has allowed them to become the

largest of the bears.

And, polar bears can reliably catch seals only from the

sea ice surface

10

And a warmer world means less sea ice

But the world is warming

Global Mean Annual Temp Anomaly

Diff

eren

ce fr

om 1

951

-19

80 M

ean

(D

eg

C)

1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010

-0.4

-0.2

00

.10

.30.

50

.7

12,000 years of Global mean temperatures

(Marcott et al. 2013)

0 5 10 15 20 25

-10

12

34

5

Time

Tem

pera

ture

0 5 10 15 20 25

-10

12

34

5

Time

Tem

pera

ture

0 5 10 15 20 25

-10

12

34

5

Time

Tem

pera

ture

17

GHGs Increasing

GHGs Stable

Warming must continue as long as GHG levels rise

This is the

uncertainty This is

the

certainty

Note: no overall recovery in 2013

So, if we don’t stop the rise

in GHGs, polar bear

numbers utimately can only

decline.

In the near term, however, there is much uncertainty, and

need for aggressive and cooperative management

We do not expect all populations to suffer from

warming at the same time or in the same ways

Some subpopulations will be able to maintain

a traditional harvest for many years

And, bears in some areas could experience transient benefits

before they ultimately decline.

So, where are we now?

2009 2013

2013: 1 increasing, 5 stable, 4 declining, 9 data deficient

2009: 1 increasing, 3 stable, 8 declining, 7 data deficient

Let’s look at the subpopulations that changed status

FoxeBasin

BaffinBay

DavisStrait

M'ClintockChannel

WesternHudson Bay

Gulf ofBoothia

SouthernHudson Bay

LancasterSound

250km 80°W 70°

70°

60°N

Data Deficient to Stable

Recent aerial survey estimated 2580 (95% CI: 2093 – 3180) polar bears

(Stapleton et al. 2012)-not statistically different from an earlier estimate

of 1994 indicating a stable population. But estimates of vital rates are

unavailable, and vital rates observed from adjacent populations vary

considerably.

DavisStrait

FoxeBasin

EastGreenland

BaffinBay

SouthernHudson Bay

250km 50°60°W

50°N

60°

Declining to Stable

Recent inventory completed in 2007 estimated the subpopulation as

2,158 (95% CI: 1,833–2,542) (Peacock et al. 2013), much higher than

early estimates. But low recent estimates of reproductive and recruitment rates may reflect negative effects of greater densities or worsening ice condition.

LancasterSound

BaffinBay

M'ClintockChannel Foxe

Basin

KaneBasin

ArcticBasin

ViscountMelville

Gulf ofBoothia

NorthernBeaufort

NorwegianBay

250 km 100°W 90°

80°

70°N

Declining to Data Deficient

Estimate of 2,541 ± 391 based on an analysis of mark-recapture data up

to 1997 (Taylor et al. 2008)-larger than a previous estimate of 1,675 that

included Norwegian Bay (Stirling et al. 1984). Age of the estimate and

limited vital rates data suggesting low renewal rate require a DD status.

ArcticBasin

LancasterSound

BaffinBay

KaneBasin

ViscountMelville

NorthernBeaufort

NorwegianBay

M'ClintockChannel250 km 80°90°W

80°N

Declining to Data Deficient

The most current (1993 – 97) estimate is 203 ± 44 (SE; Taylor et al.

2008). Survival rate estimates for the NW subpopulation were derived

from pooled Lancaster Sound and NW data because the subpopulations

are adjacent and the number of bears captured in NW was too small to

generate reliable survival estimates.

ChukchiSea

ArcticBasin

LaptevSea Southern

Beaufort

250km 180° 170°W

60°N

70°

Declining to Data Deficient

Stable or improved body condition and reproduction between 1986-1994

and 2008-2011,among bears captured in the spring in the U.S. portion of

the population’s range (Rode et al. 2013) suggests capacity for positive

natural population growth despite recent sea ice declines. But, autumn-

based observations on Wrangel Island, 2004-2010, suggest low cub

production and reduced maternity denning (Ovsyanikov 2012). This and

absence of a population estimate suggested status of data deficient.

AB

DS

KS

LP

BS

CS

FB

BB

SH

EG

NB

SB

LS

MC

WH

KB

VM

GB NW

Hunting

Contaminants

Oil and Gas

Other

Concerns

With 9 subpopulations data deficient on trend and

12 on status, we obviously have work to do:

Next: Circumpolar monitoring strategy

Then: Suggested research priorities.

Discussion?