Population Change in Europe

Nico van Nimwegen

Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute NIDI

Key Messages• Like climate change, population

change has a major impact on our future:- Population Ageing- Population Diversity- Slowdown of Population Growth

• Demographic trends are persistent• Unity and Diversity: rich variation in

demographic trends in Europe

Europeans have smaller families

• Low fertility in most countries, but with fluctuations

• Impact of economic uncertainty/crises

• How to support families: work-family

balance, family friendly policies.

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25

Total (period) Fertility Rate, 1960-2005

Total Fertility Rate

IcelandTurkeyFranceIreland

AzerbaijanNorway

United KingdomSweden

DenmarkFinland

BelgiumNetherlandsLuxembourg

EU-15other CoE countries

Estoniaall CoE countries

GeorgiaLiechtenstein

AlbaniaFYROM

SwitzerlandCyprusRussia

BulgariaGreeceCroatia

ArmeniaSerbia

Czech RepublicMalta

SloveniaAustria

SpainLithuania

ItalyLatvia

UkraineGermanyPortugal

EU-12RomaniaHungary

PolandSlovakiaMoldovaAndorra

0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5

TFR 2000/2004 TFR 2005/2009

Longer and Healthier lives• Longevity increases both for women

and men

• The gender gap in longevity is gradually closing but still large in some countries

• Healthy life expectancy increases too

• How to use resources of an ageing population: active ageing

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25

Life expectancy, women, 1960-2005

Life Expectancy Women

FranceSpain

SwitzerlandItaly

LiechtensteinIcelandSweden

EU-15FinlandNorwayAustria

LuxembourgGermanyBelgiumCyprus

NetherlandsPortugal

IrelandMalta

GreeceSlovenia

United KingdomDenmark

Czech RepublicPoland

all CoE countriesCroatiaEstoniaGeorgia

EU-12SlovakiaHungary

LithuaniaLatvia

BulgariaRomaniaArmenia

SerbiaFYROM

AzerbaijanTurkey

other CoE countriesRussia

UkraineMoldova

50 60 70 80 90

E0(f) 2000/2004 E0(f) 2005/2009

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25

Life expectancy, men, 1960-2005

Life Expectancy Men

IcelandSwitzerland

LiechtensteinSweden

ItalyNorwayCyprus

NetherlandsSpainEU-15

United KingdomFranceIreland

GermanyGreece

MaltaAustria

LuxembourgBelgium

DenmarkFinland

PortugalSlovenia

Czech RepublicCroatia

all CoE countriesFYROMPolandTurkeySerbia

AzerbaijanSlovakia

EU-12ArmeniaGeorgiaBulgariaHungaryRomaniaEstonia

LatviaLithuania

other CoE countriesMoldovaUkraineRussia

50 60 70 80 90

E0(m) 2000/2004 E0(m) 2005/2009

0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14

M T

UK

NL

SE

DK

CY

IE

TR

GR

AT

DE

IT

EU-15

BE

LU

CZ

EU-27

PT

ES

FI

HR

FR

RO

SI

BG

SK

NM S-12

HU

PL

EE

LV

LT

Gender differences in life expectancy (in years), 2005

Europe’s population becomes more diverse

• Migration has become the main engine of population growth in Europe.

• Large fluctuations in migration flows and in the number of migrants.

• Managing migration flows and using the resources of migrants. Integration. Making diversity an asset

Impact of migration

Different migration experiences

Different numbers of migrants

Also in Central and Eastern Europe -Top 10

Foreign born and Non-nationals

LiechtensteinLuxembourgSwitzerland

EstoniaLatvia

AustriaCyprusIreland

SwedenGermanyBelgium

SpainSlovenia

GreeceFrance

NetherlandsUnited Kingdom

IcelandEU27+4Norway

DenmarkPortugal

LithuaniaItaly

MaltaCzech Republic

SlovakiaFinland

HungaryPoland

RomaniaBulgaria

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45

% non-nationals % foreign born

Population Growth• World population continues to grow:

7 billion today

• Population growth of Europe is slowing down

• Population decline becomes a reality

• Doing more with fewer people

Milestones of world population growth

1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Series1

Series1

wereldbevolking

lage variant

hoge variant

midden variant

mijlpalen

Jaar

x mld.

-0,5

0,0

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

3,0

1950-54 1965-69 1980-84 1995-99 2010-2014 2025-2029 2040-2044

least developed regions less developed regionsmore developed regions w orld

Bevolkingsgroeitempo in minder en meer ontwikkelde landen, %

Source: United Nations 2008, medium variant

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005

EU-15 NMS-10 EU-25

Total Population Growth EU (per 1000 population)

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Bulgaria

Latvia

Lithuania

Estonia

Hungary

Romania

Germany

Poland

NM S-10

C roatia

Slovak Republic

Netherlands

Italy

Denmark

Slovenia

Austria

C zech Republic

Portugal

Greece

EU-25

Finland

EU-15

United Kingdom

Belgium

France

Sweden

M alta

Luxembourg

C yprus

Turkey

Spain

Ireland

Net migration

Natural increase

Total population increase

Components of Population Growth EU (per 1000 population), 2006

Migration drives Population Growth in Europe

EU-15, 2000/2004

EU-15, 2005/2009

EU-12, 2000/2004

EU-12, 2005/2009

other CoE countries, 2000/2004

other CoE countries, 2005/2009

total, 2000/2004

total, 2005/2009

-0.4 -0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6

natural increase net migration

Europa, Bevolkingsgroei, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007

Source: Eurostat.

Europa, Potentiële Beroepsbevolking, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007

;

-5 of minder -5 tot 0 0 tot 5 5 tot 10 10 of meer

Bevolkingsgroei naar gemeente (%) 2007-2025

Population ageing• Ageing most advanced in Europe• Population of working age becomes

smaller • Higher labour force participation:

better use of human resources (unemployed, women, migrants, elderly)

• Improve skills: education, life long learning

• Training also needed as the work force is ageing

Europa, bevolking 65+, NUTS2 regios, 2000-2007

Source: Eurostat.

Demographic Pressure

FranceSweden

DenmarkItaly

GermanyBelgium

United KingdomNorwayFinlandGreece

PortugalTurkeyIceland

NetherlandsIrelandCroatiaAustria

MontenegroSerbia

EstoniaSwitzerland

SpainLuxembourg

HungaryLatvia

BulgariaLithuaniaSlovenia

MaltaRomania

CyprusLiechtenstein

Czech RepublicFYROMPoland

AzerbaijanArmeniaRussia

SlovakiaAndorraMoldova

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

young age dependency ratio old age dependency ratio

Een demografische omslag

• De bevolkingsexplosie van de 20e eeuw is voorbij

• Wereldbevolkingsgroei nog fors maar dalend

• Europese bevolkingsgroei gering• Nederlandse bevolking groeit nog

door …• … maar steeds meer gebieden in

Europa en Nederland krijgen te maken met bevolkingskrimp

Vooruitzichten (1)• na de (20e) eeuw van de bevolkingsgroei is er nu de (21e) eeuw van de vergrijzing en de urbanisatie.

• basisoorzaken van de vergrijzing zijn structureel;lage vruchtbaarheid, langere levensduur

• lagere bevolkingsgroei brengt vergrijzing mee.

•vergrijzing is grotendeels “man made” (en een succesverhaal)

Vooruitzichten (2)

• migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing.

• einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht.

• bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.

Vooruitzichten (2)

• migratie biedt geen oplossing voor de vergrijzing.

• einde van de bevolkingsgroei komt in steeds meer landen in zicht.

• bevolkingskrimp wordt de nieuwe realiteit in ieder geval in Europa en Nederland.

Bevolkingskrimp

• Uneven distribution of population growth: decline and growth side by side.

• Especially smaller municipalities are vulnerable.

• High density areas grow. Low density areas decline (Matthew principle).

Bevolkingskrimp: probeem of oplossing?

• Pessimist view: Doomsday scenarios. Population decline-economic decline-outflow-more decline-poverty.

• Optimist view: Pink cloud. Population decline, more space, better environment, less congestion (traffic jams).

• Reality check. Population decline adds to the challenges of population ageing.

Housing • Number of households continues to grow,

but not everywhere … • Lower population pressure could help to

relieve pressures on housing markets in cases of high pressure (low supply, high housing demand).

• Decline works positive…• … but decline works negative when the

pressure on the housing market is low (lots of houses, low demand).

• Decline leads to empty houses

Infrastructure and Space

• Decline can aggrevate the decrease in facilities.

• Low level of facilities can trigger further decline.

• Use of space: behaviour important• Small is beautiful?

Economy

• Working age population will peak in 2010 at 10,1 million persons.

• Slow decline to 9,8 million in 2025• Higher labour force participation and

extension of working life to cope with decline?

• Labour force participation of women, older workers, migrants?

• Ageing of the work force.

Decline and Vulnerability

• Decline can aggrevate vulnerability.• Weaker neighbourhoods, cities,

regions have difficulty of keeping their inhabitants.

• Can this a downward spiral be broken?

Coping or Fighting?

• Fighting decline not very successful (difficult to turn the trend around).

• Coping with decline (try to make the best of it) is long term issue.

• No generic, “one size fits all” policies• Enable regional and local diversity.• Flexibility in spatial (long term)

policy.• Decline as challenge to increase

quality?

Decline and Population Policy?

• Together with population ageing population decline makes for a real demographic turnaround.

• Do we need a population policy? Is this feasible?

• Demographic solutions are limited. • Most Dutch prefer population decline

over population growth ( …but not in their backyard ...)

• End of population growth? Less people, more wellbeing?