Post on 12-Jan-2016
transcript
Population Trends and Development
John Bongaarts
Population Council
Outline
• Background: population and fertility trends
• Consequences of demographic trends • Policy options
1900 1950 2000 2050 21000
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
Population estimates and projections to 2100
World (+3.9 billion)
Asia (+0.5 billion)Africa (+3.2 billion)
Europe, L. and N. America
Source: United Nations 2013
World
Africa
Asia
Europe
L.America
N.America
-1000000 0 1000000 2000000 3000000 4000000 5000000
Projected increase in population 2010-2100
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 21100
2000000
4000000
6000000
8000000
10000000
12000000
14000000
16000000
18000000
World population projection variants
High variant
Medium
Low
Population growth rates 2005-2010
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Bir
ths p
er
wo
man
Fertility trends
Source: United Nations 2009
L.America Africa
Asia
N.America
Europe
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4Population growth by fertility level
Births per woman
Gro
wth
ra
te (
%)
1.High fertility/growth
2. Intermediate fertility/growth
3. Low fertility/growth
Group 1
Demographic consequences of high fertility
• Rapid population growth
• Young age structure
Ethiop
ia
Ghana
Kenya M
ali
Nigeria
Tanza
nia
Ugand
a
SS Afri
ca
Pakist
an0
20
40
60
80
100
Population by age (<25,>25)%
of
po
pu
lati
on
Age
>25
<25
1950 1975 2000 2025 20500
2
4
6
8
10
12Youth (15-25) by country
Ra
tio
(1
95
0=
1)
Nigeria
Pakistan
India
China
Group1: Consequences of High fertility and rapid population growth
• Governmental: Lagging investment in education, health services and infrastructure
• Economic: Low wages, unemployment, poverty
• Environmental: Depletion of natural resources, pollution
• Political: Rising political unrest and crime
• Health: High maternal and child mortality
Group 2: Intermediate/ declining fertility
• Declining population growth rates
• Fewer young people, more workers
• Demographic dividend
Population by age: Mexico
Demographic Dividend:
Boosts growth in GDP/cap by raising
1) Relative size of workforce
2) Women’s participation in paid labor force
3) Investments in human and physical capital
1950 1975 2000 2025 205030
40
50
60
70
Working age population (%)%
of
po
pu
lati
on
Developed world
Demographic Dividend
Developing world
1950 1975 2000 2025 205040
45
50
55
60
65
70
75
Working age population (%)
East Asia
Sub-Saharan Africa
HighMediumLow
Group 2: Consequences of Intermediate/declining fertility
• Governmental: Large investments in education, health services and infrastructure
• Economic: Demographic dividend
• Environmental: Depletion of natural resources, air, water and soil pollution
• Political: Inequality and disaffected voters
• Health: Declining maternal and child mortality
Group 3: Low fertility
• Near zero or negative population growth rates
• Rapid population aging
Population by age: Italy
1975 2000 2025 20500
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Retirees/Worker
Italy
Spain
Germany
Japan
France
Canada
UK
China
USA
1975 2000 2025 2050-1.66533453693773...
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
Pop 65+/Pop 20-64
Japan
Italy
Spain
Germany
France
Canada
China
UK
USA
Ratio
Group 3: Consequences of low fertility
• Economic
Unsustainable health and pension costs
Rising governmental budget deficits
• Political Rising voting power of the elderly
Slower economic growth Slower growth in GDP/capSlower growth in worker productivity (?)
• Governmental
• Environmental High GHG emissions and consumption of natural resources
1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Impact of demographic dividend on economic growth rate (GDP/cap)
-
% G
row
th r
ate
GD
P/c
ap
+
Developing world
Developed world
A. High fertility countries
B. Very low fertility countries
Policy options :
• Family planning programs to reduce unplanned
pregnancies
• Investments in human capital (e.g. girls
education)
A. Policy options in high fertility countries:
0
50
100
150
200
All pregnancies
Nu
mb
er o
f p
reg
na
nci
es (
mill
)Many unplanned pregnancies in the
developing world
Source: Vlassof et al 2004
Unplanned Abortion
Unplanned birth
Planned
Planningstatus Outcome
Plannedbirth
P
Indonesia
Jordan
Bangladesh
Uganda
Rwanda
0 2 4 6
Fertility impact of family planning programs
Births per woman
Weak program High quality program
Trends in international assistance for population activities
?
Recent return of interest in Population and FP
1) Population of Sub-Saharan Africa expected to double by 2040 despite AIDS epidemic
2) Environmental concerns return: global warming, spikes in food and energy prices
3) Economists (re)discover the demographic dividend
4) Concern about political and socio-economic consequences of large number of unemployed youth
B. Policy options in aging societies
Demographic optionsEncourage childbearing; permit more immigration.
Pension system options Reduce benefits; raise contributions; raise age at
eligibility; encourage private savings.
Labor force optionsEncourage higher labor force participation
and later age at retirement.
0
1
2
3
Fertility and ideal family size for European countries
Ideal family size
Actual fertility
1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050 2070 2090 21100
500000
1000000
1500000
2000000
2500000
3000000
3500000
4000000
4500000
5000000
Small fertility changes have large fu-ture population impact
+0.5 birth
-0.5 birth
Medium
0.86 billion in 2010
Sub-SaharanAfrica
Conclusions
• Very high and very low fertility have net adverse effects
• Declining high fertility brings multiple benefits for human welfare and the environment
• Policies are available to maximize positive effects and minimize negative effects
• World is moving from demographic dividend to demographic burden