Population/Economic Growth and the Marine Environment

Daniel HuppertSchool of Marine Affairs University of Washington

World Population Estimates & Projections

UN population Division, "The World at Six Billion"

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6

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12

1000 1100 1200 1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000 2100 2200 2300

Year

Bill

ions

of

Peop

le

Pop = 2 bil. in 1929 & = 6 bil. in 2000

Components of Pop Change

• Birth rate (# born per year)• Mortality rate (M) - Percentage of population that

dies/year- Mortality rate & life expectancy are inversely related

• Fertility- No. of live births per woman of child bearing age (over life span)

• data from https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/ 2007 estimates

Another 2 billion People by 2050

Cartogram - Nat’l Population

Relationships between Population and Economic

Development• Econ Develop typically entails improved

health services, reduced mortality rates, and increased life expectancy

• But more developed nations usually have lower population growth rates.

• The relationship is complex

GDP versus Fertility, 221 nations

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total Fertility

GDP per capita

Life Expectancy vs GDP per Capita

$0

$10,000

$20,000

$30,000

$40,000

$50,000

$60,000

$70,000

$80,000

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90

Life Expectancy at Birth

GDP

per

Capi

ta

Life expectancy vs. Fertility

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10

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90

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

Total Fertility

Life Expectancy at Birth

(years)

Some Conclusions re Pop Growth

• Causality may be -- economic growth spurs reductions in mortality and fertility and, ultimately, in population growth.

• But, of course, economic growth means higher production & income per capita, which involves increased land conversion, fuel consumption, etc.

• … and that may cause pollution, etc.

Europe - Developed Landscape

• Air and water pollution are extensive

• Over-fishing and coastal pollution degrade marine ecosystems

Coastal counties contain53% of the nation’s population, yet, excluding Alaska, account for only 17% of U.S. land area.

Coastal Population Pressure in the US

Pew Oceans Commission

Growth effects on the Coasts

• Population• Land consumption due

to suburban development patterns

• Increased auto use

Impervious surface > 10% degrades rivers & estuaries

• Example - Impervious Surface area in Puget Sound Region(From PSAT website)

• This will likely expand with economic growth & population

Human Population Growth WA State

• Population roughly doubled since 1970

• State Forecast = 8+ million by 2030

Washington State Population

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1000

2000

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7000

1925 1935 1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Pop

in 1

,000s

WA Annual Pop Growth

from WA OFM

• Cyclical pattern tracks economic growth

• Most Pop. Growth due to Migration

Population & Economic Growth Generally Means:

(1) More homes, roads, schools, shopping malls

(2) Increased land conversion, water diversion, air pollution, run-off of oil and chemicals

(3) More shoreline bulkheads, fishing pressure, overwater structures, marinas, saltwater recreation, maritime traffic

Some Consequences

• Nutrient and toxic inputs to nearshore water• Diminished Water Quality• Harmful Algae Blooms (HABs)• Shoreline Armoring• Altered river hydrology and run-off patterns• Nearshore Habitat Loss

A More Rural Area

Skagit Delta - Whidbey basin

Fir Island Aerial View from Grossman

WDNR estimates 1/3 of WA shorelines have been modified

and 70% of tidal lands degraded

Economic Outputs

• Seafood

• Transportation

• Housing/Amenities

• Recreation

Processes

• Resource Extraction

• Manufacturing & Construction

• Land Use

• Shoreline Bldg.

• Population Migration and Aging

• Technical Change

• Shifting Values

Conditions

• Demographics

• Incomes

• Educational Level

•Housing & Facilities

• Non-Market Assets

• Institutions and Organizations

• Dominant Attitudes Beliefs and Values

Public Policy

• Property Rules • Incentive Systems• Decision Mechanisms

Human Effects

• Water Pollution & Sediments

• Land Cover/Use

• Species Harvests

• Structural Changes (dikes) Conditions

• Geomorphology

• Salinity Patterns

• Water quality

• Wetlands extent and Structure

• Habitat Quality

• Species Abundance

•Species Diversity

Processes

• Primary Production

• Nutrient Flow

• Trophic Dynamics

• Upwelling & Tides

• Climate change

• Sedimentation

• Species Invasion

Estuarine Ecosystem

Socioeconomic System

Systems View of Coastal Socio-Ecological System*

*Modified from PNCERS socio-economic research (Huppert et al. 2003)