Post on 03-Jan-2016
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Portals for Real-Time Earthquake Data and Forecasting
Challenges and Promise
John B RundleDistinguished Professor, University of California, Davis (www.ucdavis.edu)
Chairman, Open Hazards Group (www.openhazards.com)
Credit: NHK
Major Contributors
University of California:James Holliday (University of California)Mark Yoder (University of Calfornia)Steven Ward (and University of California)
Open Hazards Group:William Graves Paul Rundle
QuakeSim (NASA and Jet Propulsion Laboratory):Andrea DonnellanJay Parker
E-Decider (NASA and Jet Propulsion Laboratory):Maggi Glasscoe
Other:Marlon Pierce (IU)Geoffrey Fox (IU)Jun Wang (IU)
ImpactsLoss Trends (Munich Re, 2012)
The Four Phases of a Disaster
Disaster PhaseTypical Time
ScalesSolutions
Anticipation Months to DecadesScience:
Forecasting and Planning
Mitigation Months to YearsEngineering:
Structures and Lifelines
Response Seconds to Weeks Social, IT, Medical: Emergency Responders
Recovery Weeks to Years
Economics, Engineering: Finance and
Reconstruction
Forecasting vs. Prediction
Context Characteristic
Prediction A statement that can be validated or falsified with 1 observation
ForecastA statement for which multiple
observations are required to validate a probability density function within
prescribed error bounds
Challenges in Web-Based Forecasting
Data & Models Information
Delivery Meaning
Acquiring & validating data Automation What is probability?
Model building Web-based integration Visual presentation
Efficient algorithms UI GIS
Validating/verifying models Tools Correlations
Error reporting, correction, model
steering
Collaboration/social networks
Expert guidance/blogs
Building a Portal
Objectives Content APIsAccessibilit
y
Information Text PHP/HTML Desktop
Publishing Images MySQL Mobile
Networking Videos CSS Site Design
Apps Data Javascript Site Navigation
Advocacy Links Python Forms
QuakeSim A Resource for Researchers
OpenHazards A Resource for the
Public
E-Decider A Resource for
Responders
Web-Based Resources
For Risk Awareness and Management
Risk Management
Systemic-level risk is growing exponentially from a variety of natural hazards
Currently, risk management is done by big corporations for big corporations
Modern social networking technology together with web-based information and tools has
enabled a new era of Personal Risk Management
QuakeSim/E-DECIDERGoals• Reduce, Transform and Distribute NASA Earth Science Data in support of
Earthquake Research, Mitigation and Response• Produce results that have immediate utility for disaster response
12Simplified workflow
UICDS-Connected
ApplicationsUICDS-
Connected Applications
UICDS-Connected
ApplicationsUICDS-
Connected Applications
UICDS-Connected
Applications
Data Distribution Examples
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QuakeSim E-DECIDER
Hazard ViewerJapan Region
Spatial Contours of Forecast
Probabilities in the Japan Region
M>6.5 for the Next 1 Year beginning June 27, 2013
Chance of a Another Major or Great Earthquake in
Japan Region in the Near Future is High
1000 km Radius Circle Around
Tokyo
All Aftershocks Since M7.9 on March 11, 2011
Earthquake Forecasts (Probability in %): Eight CitiesProbability of Magnitude ≥ 7 -- Within 1 Year and Within 100 miles
Sendai
79%
Tokyo
58%
Shizuoka
38%
Osaka
18%Miyazaki
24%
Nagasaki
11%
Kyoto
18%
Niigata
23%6/26/2013
Earthquake Forecasts (Probability in %): Eight CitiesProbability of Magnitude ≥ 7 -- Within 1 Year and Within 100 miles
Sendai
42%
Tokyo
13%
Shizuoka
4%
Osaka
1%Miyazaki
4%
Nagasaki
1%
Kyoto
1%
Niigata
3%10/21/2013
Sendai Earthquake Forecast (Probability in % vs. Time)
Probability of Magnitude ≥ 7 -- Within 1 Year and Within 100 miles
May 24 M8.3 D600km Kamchatka Earthquake
Social Networkinghttp://social.openhazards.com
Communication and collaboration is critical to building global resilient communities
Social Networkinghttp://social.openhazards.com
Components of GIS Server• GeoServer: thematic mapping and data
distribution• Geospatial Database: storage and spatial analysis • Web Service API: simple use REST API for complex
GIS functionalities• Geoprocessing Tool: Python scripts to produce
standard-compliant data products
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GIS Server (Virtual Machine)
GeoServer
Geospatial
Database
Geoprocess Tool Other
Applications
Desktop GIS
3D Visualization
Web Service API
Web/Mobile GIS