PRC MILITARY MODERNIZATION

Dave Finkelstein — Vice President, Center for Naval Analyses

& Director, CNA China Studies

THE OPERATIONAL CAPABILITIES THE

CHINESE ARMED FORCES ARE DISPLAYING

TODAY ARE THE FRUITS OF FUNDAMENTAL

DECISIONS, PLANS, AND PROGRAMS PUT

INTO PLACE 18 YEARS AGO.

POINT 1

1993: THE WATERSHED YEAR

• PROGRAMMATIC BLUEPRINT FOR LONG-TERM MODERNIZATION OF PLA

• CAPABILITIES-BASED & • CONTINGENCYBASED

“MILITARY STRATEGIC GUIDELINES FOR THE NEW PERIOD”

FORMER CCP SECRETARY GENERAL JIANG ZEMIN

CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT

• GALVANIZING IMPACT OF DESERT STORM

• ENDS PLA DEBATES ABOUT TECHNOLOGY & REFORM

• LESSONS OF KOSOVO, AFGHANISTAN, IRAQ, CHECHNYA, CYBER ATTACKS ON ESTONIA, GEORGIA

• MAJOR ADJUSTMENTS IN 2002 & 2004

“LOCAL WARS UNDER MODERN INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”

• LIMITED POLITICAL OBJECTIVES & GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE

• SHORT IN DURATION BUT DECISIVE IN OUTCOME

• HIGH-INTENSITY OPERATIONS TEMPO

• LOGISTICS-INTENSIVE

• C4ISR & NEAR-TOTAL BATTLE SPACE AWARENESS

• OPERATIONS IN ALL BATTLE SPACE DIMENSIONS

• NON-LINEAR OPERATIONS & VULNERABLE REAR AREAS

• PRE-EMINANCE OF JOINT SERVICE OFFENSIVE CAMPAIGNS

BUILD A PLA TO FIGHT THIS KIND OF WAR

CONTINGENCY-BASED ASSESSEMENT

LITTORAL /MARITIME CONCERNS “MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION”

MSD

“MAIN STRATEGIC DIRECTION ” & “IMPORTANT STRATEGIC DIRECTIONS”

PREPARE FOR “LOCAL WAR UNDER

INFORMATIZED CONDITIONS”

POINT 2 – EVEN WITHOUT TAIWAN….

…THE CAPABILITIES-BASED ASSESSMENT WOULD STILL IMPEL THE PLA TO HIGH-TECH CAPABILITIES, & OTHER CONTINGENCIES WOULD SERVE AS DRIVERS

• MOST PRESSING CONTIGENCIES ARE MARITIME AND AEROSPACE IN NATURE– IF PLA CAN BUILD A MILITARY FOR THE TAIWAN

CONTINGENCY, IT CAN ALSO DEAL WITH OTHERS

• “BIG POWER” STATUS – A MILITARY BEFITTING AN EMERGING POWER– “STICK” AS WELL AS “CARROT”

• EXPANDING NATIONAL INTERESTS– MARITIME TRADING NATION WITH GLOBAL ECONOMIC

INTERESTS

WHY?

WHAT THE LEADERS OF THE PLA ARE

TRYING TO ACHIEVE IN MILITARY MODERNI-

ZATION IS NOTHING SHORT OF TRANS-

FORMATIVE RELATIVE TO THE PLA’S PAST.

POINT 3

PARADIGM SHIFTS FOR PLA

• STRATEGICALLY SEEKING DEFENSIVE DEPTH EAST OFF THE LITORRAL

• ORGANIZATIONALLY GIVING INCREASING EMPHASIS TO NAVY, AIR FORCE, & TECHNICAL BRANCHES

• OPERATIONALLY AND DOCTRINALLY TRAINING FOR JOINT, HIGH OPS TEMPO CAMPAIGNS

• CONCEPTUALLY LEARNING TO UTILIZE HIGH-TECH ASSETS IN DYNAMIC OPERATIONAL ENVIRONMENT

SU-27 AIRCRAFT PURCHASED

FROM RUSSIA

“THREE PILLARS OF REFORM”

1. HARDWARE & TECHNOLOGIES

2. SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

3. OPERATIONAL-LEVEL DOCTRINE

SYSTEMIC & INSTITUTIONAL REFORMS

• COMMISSIONING• PROFESSIONAL

MILITARY EDUCATION• PERSONNEL

MANAGEMENT• NCO CORPS• RECRUITMENT

• DOWNSIZING• UNIT RESTRUCTURING• NEW C2

RELATIONSHIPS• EQUIPMENT R & D

SYSTEM• LOGISTICS• FINANCIAL OVERSIGHT

DOCTRINE FOR A NEW TYPE OF CAMPAIGN

FROM LONG CAMPAIGNS OF ATTRITION BASED ON CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS) AGAINST ENEMY’S WEAKEST SECTOR & ASSETS…

….TO …. SHORT “CAMPAIGNS OF PARALYSIS” TO LEVEL THE TECHNOLOGICAL PLAYING FIELD BY CONCENTRATING PLA’S BEST CAPABILITIES AGAINST ENEMY’S MOST IMPORTANT ASSETS.

COMBINED ARMS JOINT OPERATIONS

CONCENTRATION OF FORCES (MASS)

CONCENTRATION OF CAPABILITIES (WPNS, UNITS)

ENEMY’S WEAK POINTS ENEMY’S STRENGTHS

EMPHASIS ON DEFENSE PRIMACY OF OFFENSE

GROUND FORCE-CENTRIC NAVAL AND AEROSPACE

ABSORBING BLOWS

CONVENTIONAL BATTLE SPACES

OPERATIONAL PRE-EMPTION

NEW BATTLE SPACES (SPACE, CYBER SPACE, EM SPECTRUM)

PARADIGM SHIFT IN OPERATIONAL DOCTRINE

FROM TO

POINT 4

THE PLA IS NOT YET BUILDING A FORCE FOR SUSTAINED GLOBAL FORCE PROJECTION.

HOWEVER….

IT IS BUILDING A MILITARY FOR REGIONAL CONVENTIONAL FORCE PROJECTION & DEFENSE IN DEPTH IN THE MARITIME-AEROSPACE DOMAIN.

2012 — CHINA COMMISSIONS FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER

POINT 5 THAT SAID, THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED

POCKETS OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.

• NUCLEAR FORCES – LIQUID FUELED TO SOLID FUELED– SILO-BASED TO ROAD MOBILE, and SUBMARINES– QUESTIONS ABOUT NUCLEAR DOCTRINE PERSIST

• CYBER WARFARE– PRC AS EMERGING WORLD-CLASS CENTER OF

INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY

• OPERATIONS IN OUTER SPACE– INCREASING FOOT PRINT IN OUTER SPACE– DEMONSTRATED INTEREST IN COUNTER SPACE

STRATEGIC REACH

THE PLA IS AT THE INCIPIENT STAGES

OF BECOMING AN EXPEDITIONARY

FORCE

POINT 6

24 DEC 2004: “NEW HISTORIC MISSIONS”

“THE PLA IS TRANSFORMING FROM A MILITARY TRADITIONALLY FOCUSED ON THE DEFENSE OF SOVEREIGNTY TO A MILITARY PREPARED TO DEFEND CHINESE INTERESTS.” HU JINTAO BECOMES

CMC CHAIRMAN IN 2004

• ANTI-PIRACY OFF HORN OF AFRICA

• HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE & DISASTER RELIEF OPERATIONS– NEW HOSPITAL SHIP

• UN PEACEKEEPING & OBSERVER MISSIONS

• COMBINED EXERCISES WITH FOREIGN NATIONS– TURKEY OCTOBER 2010

• “QUASI-NEO” IN LIBYA 2011

• FIRST AIRCRAFT CARRIER CV 16 LIAONING

INCIPIENT EXPEDITIONARY OPERATIONS

POINT 7 – THE PLA REMAINS A “PARTY ARMY”

WHILE THE PLA IS MAKING IMPRESSIVE

PROGRESS, IT IS NOT ENTIRELY CERTAIN

OR INEVITABLE THAT THE PLA WILL BE

ABLE TO ACHIEVE ALL OF ITS

OBJECTIVES.

POINT 8

INHIBITORS

• PLA A VERY LARGE ORGANIZATION

• EDUCATION LEVELS

• CONSCRIPTS VERSUS PROFESSIONALS

• COMPETITION FOR “BEST & BRIGHTEST”

• “ONLY SON SOLDIERS”

• BUREAUCRATIC INERTIA

• NO RECENT COMBAT EXPERIENCE

THE “CHINA FACTOR” A GLOBAL ACTOR OF CONSEQUENCE FOR MANY

U.S. STRATEGIC INTERESTS

Hu Jintao

Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou

Liang Guanglie MND

Chen Bingde GSD Li Jinai GPD Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan

GAD Jing Zhiyuan

2nd Arty Wu Shengli

Navy Xu Qiliang

PLAAF

Chairman

Vice Chairman

Members

Hu Jintao

Xi Jinping Guo Boxiong Xu Ciahou

Liang Guanglie MND

Chen Bingde GSD Li Jinai GPD Liao Xilong GLD Chang Wanquan

GAD Jing Zhiyuan

2nd Arty Wu Shengli

Navy Xu Qiliang

PLAAF

Chairman

Vice Chairman

Members

?

X X

X X X X X

GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS

NORTH KOREA

IRAN

AFGHANISTAN & PAKISTAN

CLIMATE CHANGE & GLOBAL WARMING

GLOBAL COMMONS

OUTER SPACE CYBER SPACE

MARITIME

SOUTH CHINA SEA

USNS IMPECCABLE INCIDENT, MARCH 2009

DOMESTIC CHALLENGES —

“ALL UNDER HEAVEN” IS NOT WELL

“RISING CHINA”

“CHALLENGED CHINA”

DAUNTING DOMESTIC ISSUES

• RICH-POOR GAP WIDENING• UNEVEN REGIONAL DEVELOPMENT• PEASANTS ARE “LOSERS”• BREAK DOWN IN SOCIAL SECURITY• MEDICAL SYSTEM INADEQUATE• GENDER IMBALANCE• “GRAYING” POPULATION• ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION• RAMPANT CORRUPTION BY OFFICIALS• IRRATIONAL TAX BASE• HEALTH CRISES (SARS, AVIAN VIRUS, AIDS/HIV)• POOR POWER GRID; NET OIL IMPORTER• NET GRAIN IMPORTER• INCREASINGLY “EMPOWERED” MIDDLE CLASS & ELITE• IRRATIONAL BANKING & FINANCIAL SYSTEM

POPULAR UNREST A SERIOUS CONCERN

• IN 2006 THE CHINESE MINISTRY OF PUBLIC SECURITY REPORTED 87,000 CASES OF PUBLIC ORDER DISTURBANCES.

• IN 2005 THERE WERE 84,000 INCIDENTS OF UNREST IN CHINA INVOLVING AS MANY AS 3.5 MILLION PEOPLE

• MOSTLY DISPLACED PEASANTS AND URBAN POOR LOSING JOBS OR PENSIONS IN STATE OWNED ENTERPRISES

XINJIANG — JULY 2009

CCP IS WORRIED

• FEARFUL OF “THE MASSES”

• WORRIED ABOUT THE FUTURE OF THE PARTY

• KNOWS IT MUST CHANGE STYLE OF GOVERNANCE– BUT HOW? – TO WHAT? – HOW FAST?

• LESSONS OF CPSU, EASTERN EUROPE, PRI, LDP, DLP, KMT WEIGH HEAVY– BEING STUDIED TODAY AT CENTRAL PARTY SCHOOL

FOR THE PRC — SO WHAT?

• BEIJING’S MOST PRESSING AGENDA IS THE DOMESTIC AGENDA (!)

• FUTURE OF THE PARTY HINGES UPON ITS ABILITY TO—– CONTINUE TO “DELIVER” ECONOMIC GROWTH – SPREAD THE WEALTH TO CURRENT “LOSERS”– ENHANCE GOVERNANCE (CORRUPTION, LEGAL REFORM, ETC)– MAINTAIN INTERNAL STABILITY

• REQUIRES THAT CHINA REMAIN “ENGAGED” IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC & POLITICAL SYSTEM AND HAVE “A SEAT AT THE TABLE”

• IN THIS REGARD, THE TAIWAN ISSUE CUTS BOTH WAYS —– ASSUAGING THE NATIONALISM OF “THE MASSES” WHILE

UNDERSTANDING THE RISKS TO ECONOMY RESULTING FROM WAR

FOR THE U.S. — SO WHAT?

• U.S. HAS VITAL & MAJOR INTERESTS AT STAKE IN BOTH “RISING CHINA” & “CHALLENGED CHINA”

• STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE CHINA IS HEADED

• CANNOT DEAL WITH CHINA LIKE THE USSR DURING THE COLD WAR

• THAT SAID, WE WILL NEED TO EMPLOY ALL ELEMENTS OF NATIONAL POWER IN DEALING WITH CHINA

QUESTIONS?

2008: PRC BECAME U.S.’S LARGEST CREDITOR

• OVERTAKES JAPAN TO BECOME LARGEST HOLDER OF U.S. DEBT

• PRC IS U.S.’S 2ND LARGEST TRADE PARTNER

• LARGEST SOURCE OF IMPORTS TO U.S.

• 3RD LARGEST EXPORT MARKET FOR U.S.

• U.S. IS LARGEST PRC TRADE PARTNER

• U.S. IS LARGEST EXPORT MARKET OF PRC

• Text

4. “PLAY A MAJOR ROLE IN MAINTAINING WORLD PEACE AND PROMOTING COMMON

DEVELOPMENT”

FIRST TIME THE PLA HAS BEEN GIVEN A “MISSION” SEEMINGLY NOT CONFINED TO CHINA PROPER

As China’s Global Footprint Expands…

• …China’s global security interests will also expand. The PLA will likely be called upon more and more for regional security advice.

III. Institutional Sources of PLA Influence

THAT SAID…THE PLA IS DEVELOPING SELECTED POCKETS

OF CAPACITY THAT HAVE GLOBAL REACH.