Post on 28-Dec-2015
transcript
Pre-flight and In-flight use of CAT ForecastsTurbulence Workshop
NCAR, Boulder COBy: Ian Gray
Senior Portfolio Manager
SITA Aircraft Services
2 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
Overview
• Introduction to SITA• Overview of FMS Wind Uplink• Our experiences with uplink of trial CAT data• Thoughts so far & next steps• Questions
AIRLINES
GOVERNMENTS
GLOBAL DISTRIBUTION
SYSTEMS
AIRPORTS
AEROSPACE
INTERNATIONALORGANIZATIONS
AIR CARGO
Who We AreSITA is owned by the air transport industry
As a unique hybrid commercial-cooperative model
We work collaboratively with:
AIR NAVIGATION
SERVICE PROVIDERS
AIRCRAFT& AIRFRAME
MAKERS
3 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
4 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
Background
• SITA provides an FMS Wind Uplink service, providing updated forecast wind data to the FMS, using standard AEEC format, at each GRIB2 update cycle
• Data presentation is tailored to the varying capabilities of each FMS equipment type• e.g. Honeywell variation in waypoint support between Boeing and
Airbus versions of the ‘same’ equipment• Provision of updated forecast wind data provides the FMS with a more
accurate view of the wind conditions ahead• Winds aloft predictions are interpolated
to each waypoint and weighted basedon horizontal, vertical andtemporal proximity of eachwaypoint to the source datareference points
WaypointWaypoint
GRIB ‘area’ GRIB ‘area’GRIB reference points
Prognosis Prognosis
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Background (cont’d)
• Updated wind forecasts showing more favorable conditions vs. the original flight plan provide opportunities for fuel saving with on-time arrival
• Wind updates showing less favorable conditions vs. the original flight plan give early warning of the potential for greater fuel burn
• Anecdotal evidence from participating airlines have shown an average improvement of 100kg fuel usage across a mixed long/medium/short haul fleet (<1hr to 12+ hours sectors)
• Measured peak savings for wide body aircraft on long haul sectors @ 400-600kg
6 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
Wind Uplink Comparison:
Separate flight plan provider; separate WAFC model dataWind Uplink –updated forecast
Wind Uplink based onsame data as CFP
7 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
Wind Uplink Comparison:
Separate flight plan provider; separate WAFC model dataWind Uplink –updated forecast
Wind Uplink based onsame data as CFP
8 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
CAT Uplink
• Feedback from airlines using Wind Uplink highlighted a desire to evaluate the test CAT forecast product included in our WAFC data in conjunction with wind updates
• It is difficult to present CAT data in the cockpit environment:• CAT data capability isn’t native to FMS equipment• EFB programmes are very varied among airlines in
terms of applications, devices and connectivity• In order to quickly establish a trial of CAT that could easily
be applied to the majority of aircraft equipment types, we developed a simple solution around the cockpit printer / MCDU
9 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
CAT Uplink
• CAT data is provided either independently or in addition to a corresponding FMS Wind Uplink
• Data is provided for 3 ‘swathes’ of flight levels, centred around the cruise level
• The CAT values are interpolated horizontally to each waypoint position, weighting values according to proximity
Turbulence forecast taken at 07/05/2013 1838Z using Forecast 1200ZCAT forecast updated daily at 0530 1130 1730 2330 UTCAircraft registration: XX-XXX//ALL DATA PROVIDED IS FOR EVALUATION ONLY//
FL FL FL 280-320 320-360 360-410 AVG-MAX AVG-MAX AVG-MAX ------- ------- -------RUDASSOKIMMNV 1.0-3.7BUGROVUEAMSUXVORVIONRONGURUTAMLOD -1.4 -1.8AMSIK -2.0 -3.6USMAK -1.2 -2.3KENUK
DELIS -4.1AGRIM -2.4INISANEBRA 1.2-5.0 -3.6TOBUK -1.8 2.0-6.0 3.2-6.0TIDOU -3.9BOD -2.0 -3.6 1.3-4.8SOMIL -3.9 1.3-4.7 -2.2NITAR -3.9 1.0-4.4 -1.8
10 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013
CAT Uplink Trials
• From the test cases we have run with participating airlines, we have found the following:• We have observed evidence of greater accuracy of
forecast CAT in the WAFC data for those areas with good source data coverage
• The captured actual data vs. forecast data indicates a correlation between the forecast probability values and the experienced severity of CAT
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CAT Uplink Trials
• Actual vs. Forecast – area of good source data coverage
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CAT Uplink Trials
• Actual vs. Forecast – area of poor source data coverage
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CAT Uplink Trials• Actual vs. Forecast – wider data capture (seatbelt on/off)
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CAT Uplink Trials• Actual vs. Forecast – wider data capture (crew annotations)
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CAT in Flight Planning
• In addition to showing where CAT is predicted to be, airlines also want to know where it isn’t!
• Knowledge of CAT at various levels adds value to the flight planning process:• Many pilots will instinctively climb to avoid areas of CAT• Some aircraft perform more
economically belowoptimum cruise than above
• Factoring in wing loadingvalues of different aircrafttypes can dictate tolerancevalues for passenger operations
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Conclusions so far…
• Uplink of CAT data is useful in strategic decision making as it provides data that is sometimes contrary to a pilot’s instinctive reaction to CAT
• CAT forecasts (at least, at 1.25 resolution) aren’t yet good enough on which to base a flight plan calculation – at present its value lies as an uplink to provide pilots with a more general view
• The GRIB 2 test CAT data works quite well when considered holistically rather than reading the data literally
• Graphical representation of both clear air and convective turbulence fits well into an EFB solution, however for many airlines this poses practical problems• Suitable EFB solution• Cost (and sometimes availability) of bandwidth
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Next steps…
• Extend trials to use of higher resolution source data• Currently looking into the possibility of ingesting high
resolution CAT forecast to evaluate the impact on data accuracy
• Removes the need to present average and max values
QUESTIONS?
18 | Use of CAT Forecasts | Confidential | © SITA 2013