Predictions 2014Advance. Intelligence.

Predictions was first published in 2001

Death of the PC

67% at Oct ‘14

Which device is more important to you —that is, which device could you least do without?

(Among respondents who own both a laptop and a tablet)

Global Internet Traffic by Device Type

4K TV

8

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Smartglasses

You know they are transparent, low-resolution, work only with a smartphone, cost ~$500, and may violate various laws, right?

Smartglasses for smartworkers

Is it time for smartwatches?

But what about fitness trackers?

We have had the decade of the device

$0

$100

$200

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$400

$500

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99

A

00

A

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A

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A

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14

E

15

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E

PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets

The decade of the device

Bil

lio

ns

Smartphone replacement cycles are getting longer

18

19

20

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22

23

24

25

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014e

Ha

nds

et

rep

lac

em

en

t c

yc

le in

mo

nths

Source: US data, Recon Analytics, BI Intelligence

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

03A 04A 05A 06A 07A 08A 09A 10A 11A 12A 13P 14E 15E 16E 17E 18E

5 year trailing CAGR

Less money forhardware means

more money for…

U.S. consumer electronic sales as a percent of global sales of PCs, smartphones,

tablets, TVs and game consoles

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013P 2014E

67%

23%10%

5.1” to 5.9”

6.0” to 6.9”

Phablet ownership breakdown

5.0” to 5.1”

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

100%

90%

80%

70%

60%

50%

40%

30%

20%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely

Somewhat unlikely Very unlikely

After seeing Predictions, how likely are you to spend more money with Deloitte?

(normal distribution)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Very likely Somewhat likely Neither likely norunlikely

Somewhat unlikely I'd rather be attackedby weasels

Thinking about your next mobile device, how likely

are you to purchase a phablet?

(55+ only, n=351)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

18-34 35-54 55+

Likely (T2B)

Very Unlikely (BB)

Phablet intent to purchase as next

mobile device

n=184 n=230 n=129

16%Overall(n=1,032)

46%

Phablet intent to purchase as next

mobile device (cont’d)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad

Likely (T2B)

Unlikely (BB)

n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239

16%Overall(n=1,032)

46%

5.0 - 6.9 inches - phablets <5.0 inches

Phablets will be 25% of the global smartphone market of 1.2 billion devices.

At an ASP of $417, that’s $125 billion in sales.

Global smartphone sales

$0

$100

$200

$300

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A

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A

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A

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A

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A

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A

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A

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A

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A

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A

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P

14

E

15

E

16

E

17

E

18

E

PCs Smartphones Gaming consoles TVs Tablets

Putting $125B in context

Bil

lio

ns

APEJ portable PC, tablet and phablet shipments,

2011 Q4 - 2013 Q2

0 M

3 M

6 M

9 M

12 M

15 M

18 M

21 M

24 M

4Q11 1Q12 2Q12 3Q12 4Q12 1Q13 2Q13

Unit Shipments

Portable PC Tablet Phablet

Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /

Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013

Source: The NPD Group, Inc. / Connected Intelligence /

Smartphone Usage Report, 3 months ending July 2013

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80%

Germany

France

Netherlands

United States

UK

Japan

Spain

South Korea

Singapore

Proportion of phablet owners having a smaller smartphone too

Source: Deloitte Global Mobile Consumer Survey, Developed countries, May-June 2013

Base: All Smartphone owners: 16, 378, Smartphone owners 12,313, Large smartphone owners 8,269

27.626.7 27.3

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

Hours of traditional TV watched per week by all Canadians aged 2+

0–20% Quintile – average hours per week

4.13.8

3.63.4

3.1

5.8 5.9

4.94.6

4.33.9

7.5 7.6 7.5 7.6

7.16.9

7.16.8

6.6

7.1 7.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013A 2014E

Av

era

ge

Ho

urs

pe

r W

ee

k

Total TV Eng (0-20%) Total TV French (0-20%)

Source: BBM Canada, P2+, Each year defined by 4 November weeks, M-Su 2a-2a

*PPMs introduced for Total TV Eng in 2009

Adjusted to compare to PPM data

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

18-34 35-54 55+ Male Female

n=244 n=437 n=351 n=454 n=578

Canadians who currently subscribe to a video subscription service (i.e. Netflix) or are in the free first month

Overall(n=1,032)

19%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

<HS HS Post Sec Univ Grad

Current Subs/First Month

Former Subs

Video subscription services (i.e. Netflix)

n=72 n=245 n=476 n=239

Overall(n=1,032)

19%

7%

H1 2014 North American Fixed

TMT Predictions tailored events

Duncan Stewart can deliver a presentation for your office/industry.

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