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A STUDY ON AN ANALYSE OF
SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS OF ALL PUBLIC ANDPRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN NATIONAL STOCK
EXCHANGE,COIMBATORE CAPITAL,COIMBATORE.
PROJECT REPORT
Submitted by
DEEPA PREETHI.S
REGISTER NO: 098001107009
in partial fulfilment for the award of the degree
of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION
HINDUSTHAN COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND
TECHNOLOGY
COIMBATORE-641 032
JUNE 2011
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Bonafide Certificate
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HINDUSTHAN COLLEGE OF ENGINEERING AND
TECHNOLOGY,
COIMBATORE-641 032
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
PROJECT WORK
JUNE2011
This is to certify that the project entitled
A STUDY ON AN ANALYSE OF SHARE PRICE MOVEMENTS
OF ALL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN
NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE
is the bonafide record of work done by
DEEPA PREETHI.S
Register No: 098001107009
of Master of Business Administration during the year 2010-2011.
--------------------- -------------------------------------
Dr.V.SURESH, Dr.V.SURESH, M.Com, MBA., M.Phil, M.Com, MBA., M.Phil,
PGDCA., PGDFM.,SLST, Ph.D. PGDCA., PGDFM.,SLST, Ph.D.
PROJECT GUIDE HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT
Submitted for Project Viva-Voce examination held on ________ _______
------------------------------- ------------------------------
Internal Examiner External Examiner
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Declaration
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DECLARATION
I affirm that the PROJECT WORK titled A STUDY ON AN ANALYSE OF SHARE PRICE
MOVEMENTS OF ALL PUBLIC AND PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS IN NATIONAL
STOCK EXCHANGE, COIMBATORE being submitted in partial fulfillment for the award of
MASTER OF BUSINESS ADMINISTRATION is the original work carried out by me. It has
not formed the part of any other project work submitted for award of any degree or diploma,
either in this or any other University.
DEEPA PREETHI.S
098001107009I certify that the declaration made above by the candidate is true.
Dr.V.SURESH, M.Com, MBA., M.Phil, PGDCA., PGDFM.,SLST, Ph.D.
HEAD OF THE DEPARTMENT
DEPARTMENT OF MANAGEMENT STUDIES
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Acknowledgment
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ACKNOWLEDGMENT
I first and foremost thank to lord god almighty for giving me grace and knowledge to
complete this training work successfully
My sincere and hearty thanks to Dr.V.DURAISAMY, ME, Ph.D. , The Principal,
Hindustan College of Engineering and technology, Coimbatore, for giving me opportunity to do
the training.
I admit my thanks to Dr.V.SURESH, M.Com, M.Phil, PGDCA.,PGDFM.,SLST,
Ph.D., HOD of Department of Management Studies, Hindustan College of Engineering and
Technology, Coimbatore, for the continuous guidance to accomplish my training work. And I
thank all the other faculty members of the Department of Management Studies for their valuable
support in my internship training work.
I am deeply indebted to R.RAMESH KUMAR,HR MANAGER, COIMBATORE
CAPITAL for giving me the permission and arranged for the need full help and enabling me to
undertake training in their esteemed and reputed organization.
Last but not least I submit my thanks to my Parents, Family members and Friends for
providing me their support on my work.
DEEPA PREETHI.S
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Table of content
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TABLE OF CONTENT
S.NO TITLE PAGE NO
CONTENTS
ABSTRACT V
LIST OF TABLES Vi
LIST OF CHARTS Viii
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY 1
1.2 INDUSTRY PROFILE 2
1.3 NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE PROFILE 6
1.4 NEED FOR THE STUDY 8
1.5 INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT 9
1.6 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY 9
1.7 SCOPE OF THE STUDY 10
1.8 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY 10
2 REVIEW OF LITERATURE 11
3 RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 13
4 ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS 19
5 FINDINGS,SUGGESTIONS AND CONCLUSION 67
BIBLIOGRAPHY I
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ABSTRACT
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ABSTRACT
In the present scenario, investments in developing countries have increased
remarkably. Among the developing countries, India has received considerable capitalinflows in recent years. The liberalization policy of the Government of India has now
started yielding results and the country is poised for a big leap in the industrial and
economic growth. The Economy of the country is mainly based on the development of
the corporate sectors. Funds may be raised through securities market for financing this
corporate growth.
A better understanding of the stock market trend will facilitate allocation of financialresources to the most profitable investment opportunity. The fluctuations of stock returns
are due to several economic and non-economic factors.
The study on fluctuations in stock market helps in understanding the behavior of
market. It helps investors to be aware about deviations in the returns of the stocks and to
make appropriate investment decisions. It also helps the customers to ascertain the risk
and return of the stocks. This will help the investors viz, individuals, FIIs in identifying
the stocks which would yield them higher return and lesser risk.
In the present project, the share prices of all the public sector banks and 15 private
sector banks are analyzed. It helps the investors in making investment decisions.
The conclusions that are to be provided based on the analysis of the data, would be of
immense use to the investors on one hand and the officials of the stock market to
understand the responsiveness of market price of the Banking sector and could be applied
to different situation on the other sectors.
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List of tables
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LIST OF TABLES
TABLE NO PARTICULARS PAGE NO
I Trend Analysis of Allahabad Bank 17II Trend Analysis of Andhra Bank 18
III Trend Analysis of Bank of Baroda 20
IV Trend Analysis of Bank of Maharastra 21
V Trend Analysis of Canara Bank 23
VI Trend Analysis of Central Bank of India 24
VII Trend Analysis of Corporation Bank 26VIII Trend Analysis of Dena Bank 27
IX Trend Analysis of Indian Bank 29
X Trend Analysis of Indian Overseas Bank 30
XI Trend Analysis of Oriental Bank of Commerce 32
XII Trend Analysis of Punjab and Sind Bank 33
XIII Trend Analysis of Punjab National Bank 35
XIV Trend Analysis of Syndicate Bank 36
XV Trend Analysis of UCO Bank 38
XVI Trend Analysis of Union Bank 39
XVII Trend Analysis of United Bank of India 41
XVIII Trend Analysis of Vijaya Bank 42
XIX Trend Analysis of IDBI Bank ltd. 44
XX Trend Analysis of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 45
XXI Trend Analysis of State Bank of India 47
XXII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Mysore 48
XXIII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Travancore 50
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XXIV Trend Analysis of Bank of India 51
XXV Trend Analysis of City Union Bank ltd. 53
XXVI Trend Analysis of Dhanalakshmi Bank ltd. 54
XXVII Trend Analysis of Federal Bank ltd. 56
XXVIII Trend Analysis of INGY Vysya Bank ltd. 57
XXIX Trend Analysis of Jammu and Kashmir Bank ltd. 59
XXX Trend Analysis of Karnataka Bank ltd. 60
XXXI Trend Analysis of Karur Vysya Bank ltd 62
XXXII Trend Analysis of Lakshmi Vilas Bank ltd. 63
XXXIII Trend Analysis of South Indian Bank ltd. 65XXXIV Trend Analysis of Axis Bank ltd. 66
XXXV Trend Analysis of Development Credit Bank ltd 68
XXXVI Trend Analysis of HDFC Bank ltd. 69
XXXVII Trend Analysis of ICICI Bank ltd. 71
XXXVIII Trend Analysis of IndusInd Bank ltd. 72
XXXIX Trend Analysis of Kotak Mahindra Bank 74
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List of charts
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LIST OF CHARTS
CHART
NO
PARTICULARS PAGE
NOI Trend Analysis of Allahabad Bank 18
II Trend Analysis of Andhra Bank 19
III Trend Analysis of Bank of Baroda 21
IV Trend Analysis of Bank of Maharastra 22
V Trend Analysis of Canara Bank 24
VI Trend Analysis of Central Bank of India 25VII Trend Analysis of Corporation Bank 27
VIII Trend Analysis of Dena Bank 28
IX Trend Analysis of Indian Bank 30
X Trend Analysis of Indian Overseas Bank 31
XI Trend Analysis of Oriental Bank of Commerce 33
XII Trend Analysis of Punjab and Sind Bank 34
XIII Trend Analysis of Punjab National Bank 36
XIV Trend Analysis of Syndicate Bank 37
XV Trend Analysis of UCO Bank 39
XVI Trend Analysis of Union Bank 40
XVII Trend Analysis of United Bank of India 42
XVIII Trend Analysis of Vijaya Bank 43
XIX Trend Analysis of IDBI Bank ltd. 45
XX Trend Analysis of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur 46
XXI Trend Analysis of State Bank of India 48
XXII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Mysore 49
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XXIII Trend Analysis of State Bank of Travancore 51
XXIV Trend Analysis of Bank of India 52
XXV Trend Analysis of City Union Bank ltd. 54
XXVI Trend Analysis of Dhanalakshmi Bank ltd. 55
XXVII Trend Analysis of Federal Bank ltd. 57
XXVIII Trend Analysis of INGY Vysya Bank ltd. 58
XXIX Trend Analysis of Jammu and Kashmir Bank ltd. 60
XXX Trend Analysis of Karnataka Bank ltd. 61
XXXI Trend Analysis of Karur Vysya Bank ltd 63
XXXII Trend Analysis of Lakshmi Vilas Bank ltd. 64XXXIII Trend Analysis of South Indian Bank ltd. 66
XXXIV Trend Analysis of Axis Bank ltd. 67
XXXV Trend Analysis of Development Credit Bank ltd 69
XXXVI Trend Analysis of HDFC Bank ltd. 70
XXXVII Trend Analysis of ICICI Bank ltd. 72
XXXVIII Trend Analysis of IndusInd Bank ltd. 73XXXIX Trend Analysis of Kotak Mahindra Bank 75
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Chapter 1Introduction
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CHAPTER 1 1. INTRODUCTION
1.1 INTRODUCTION OF THE STUDY
The economy is very different from what it was a decade ago and all signs point
to the fact that the economy will never be exactly the same. In a perfect world the stock market
would be predictable; specific market conditions would correspond to specific results. The stock
market is nowhere near perfect though, and as a result a thorough understanding of how market
conditions effects profit margins is very beneficial. Global competition in the marketplace has
introduced a whole new level of complexity to the process of investing, and items that were sure
fire investments in the past no longer have that status.
Investing in the stock market at its core is a numbers game, but to be truly successful in the
market it requires an understanding of the motivations behind why companies make certain
financial moves. There is a fine lin19e between insider trading and being well-informed about a
trade prospect. The well-informed investor knows how to spread assets over a variety of
different investments; diversifying is essential to saying competitive in the stop market.
If you are truly new to stock market investing, a basic understanding of the major exchange
indices will help you to get a general picture of what is happening in the stock market from day
to day. The daily changes are based on differences between the current price and base prices of
different major stocks. Different indices give investors a broad view of different industries. The
Dow Jones for example refers to the index that gauges the changes in the stocks considered the 30
most influential in the United States. The S&P 500 covers companies that make up roughly 70%
of the total market value, and for this reason it is considered by many to be a better indicator of
actual market health than the Dow. The NASDAQ is another big indicator, but it is more heavily
weighted toward technology stocks, and this bias should be taken into consideration when using
the NASDAQ. If you feel like you are ready to dabble in investing a good place to start is with
one of the basic online investing sites. Most of the sites allow you to invest with a much smaller
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minimum investment than going through a traditional brick-and-mortar investment firm. Be sure
to read up on any online investment site you choose to use since unfortunately there are scam
sites out there that will still your money. Do not be afraid to get your feet wet though; you may
just find you have a real knack for investing.
1.2 INDUSTRY PROFILE
1.2.1 STOCK EXCHANGE
A stock exchange is an entity that provides services for stock brokers and traders
to trade stocks, bonds, and other securities. Stock exchanges also provide facilities for issue and
redemption of securities and other financial instruments, and capital events including the
payment of income and dividends. Securities traded on a stock exchange include shares issued
by companies, unit trusts, derivatives, pooled investment products and bonds.
To be able to trade a security on a certain stock exchange, it must be listed there. Usually, there
is a central location at least for record keeping, but trade is increasingly less linked to such a
physical place, as modern markets are electronic networks, which gives them advantages of
increased speed and reduced cost of transactions. Trade on an exchange is by members only.
The initial offering of stocks and bonds to investors is by definition done in the primary market
and subsequent trading is done in the secondary market. A stock exchange is often the most
important component of a stock market. Supply and demand in stock markets is driven by
various factors that, as in all free markets, affect the price of stocks.
There is usually no compulsion to issue stock via the stock exchange itself, nor must stock be
subsequently traded on the exchange. Such trading is said to be off exchange or over-the-counter.
This is the usual way that derivatives and bonds are traded. Increasingly, stock exchanges are
part of a global market for securities.
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1.3 NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE
The National Stock Exchange (NSE) is a stock exchange located at Mumbai, India.
It is the 9th largest stock exchange in the world by market capitalization and largest in India by
daily turnover and number of trades, for both equities and derivative trading. NSE has a market
capitalization of around US$1.59 trillion and over 1,552 listings as of December 2010. Though a
number of other exchanges exist, NSE and the Bombay Stock Exchange are the two most
significant stock exchanges in India, and between them are responsible for the vast majority of
share transactions. The NSE's key index is the S&P CNX Nifty, known as the NSE NIFTY
(National Stock Exchange Fifty), an index of fifty major stocks weighted by market
capitalisation.
NSE is mutually-owned by a set of leading financial institutions, banks, insurance companies
and other financial intermediaries in India but its ownership and management operate as separate
entities. There are at least 2 foreign investors NYSE Euronext and Goldman Sachs who have
taken a stake in the NSE. As of 2006, the NSE VSAT terminals, 2799 in total, cover more than
1500 cities across India. NSE is the third largest Stock Exchange in the world in terms of the
number of trades in equities. It is the second fastest growing stock exchange in the world with a
recorded growth of 16.6%.
NSE was set up with the objectives of:
y Establishing nationwide trading facility for all types of securities
y Ensuring equal access to investors all over the country through an appropriate
telecommunication network
y Providing fair, efficient & transparent securities market using electronic trading system
y Enabling shorter settlement cycles and book entry settlements
y Meeting International benchmarks and standards
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1.3.1 Markets
Currently, NSE has the following major segments of the capital market:
y Equityy Futures and Options
y Retail Debt Market
y Wholesale Debt Market
y Currency futures
y Mutual Fund
y Stocks Lending and Borrowing
1.4 INTRODUCTION TO THE PROJECT
Analyzing the share prices of all private and public Banks under NSE INDIA using Trend
Analysis.
A bank is a financial intermediary and appears in several related basic forms:
y a central bank issues money on behalf of a government, and regulates the money supply
y a commercial bank accepts deposits and channels those deposits into lending activities,
either directly or through capital markets. A bank connects customers with capital deficits
to customers with capital surpluses on the world's open financial markets.
y a savings bank, also known as a building society in Britain is only allowed to borrow and
save from members of a financial cooperative
Banking is generally a highly regulated industry, and government restrictions on financial
activities by banks have varied over time and location. The current set of global bank capital
standards are called Basel II. In some countries such as Germany, banks have historically owned
major stakes in industrial corporations while in other countries such as the United States banks
are prohibited from owning non-financial companies. In Japan, banks are usually the nexus of a
cross-share holding entity known as the keiretsu. In Iceland banks followed international
standards of regulation prior to the 2008 collapse.
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The oldest bank still in existence is Monte dei Paschi di Siena, headquartered in Siena, Italy, and
has been operating continuously since 1472.
1.4.1 Types of banks
Banks' activities can be divided into retail banking, dealing directly with individuals
and small businesses; business banking, providing services to mid-market business; corporate
banking, directed at large business entities; private banking, providing wealth management
services to high net worth individuals and families; and investment banking, relating to activities
on the financial markets. Most banks are profit-making, private enterprises. However, some are
owned by government, or are non-profit organizations.
Retail banks
y Commercial bank: the term used for a normal bank to distinguish it from an investment
bank. After the Great Depression, the U.S. Congress required that banks only engage in
banking activities, whereas investment banks were limited to capital market activities.
Since the two no longer have to be under separate ownership, some use the term
"commercial bank" to refer to a bank or a division of a bank that mostly deals with
deposits and loans from corporations or large businesses.
y Community banks: locally operated financial institutions that empower employees to
make local decisions to serve their customers and the partners.
y Community development banks: regulated banks that provide financial services and
credit to under-served markets or populations.
y Credit unions: not-for-profit cooperatives owned by the depositors and often offering
rates more favorable than for-profit banks. Typically, membership is restricted to
employees of a particular company, residents of a defined neighborhood, members of a
certain labor union or religious organizations, and their immediate families.
y Postal savings banks: savings banks associated with national postal systems.
y Private banks: banks that manage the assets of high net worth individuals. Historically a
minimum of USD 1 million was required to open an account, however, over the last years
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many private banks have lowered their entry hurdles to USD 250,000 for private
investors.
y Offshore banks: banks located in jurisdictions with low taxation and regulation. Many
offshore banks are essentially private banks.
y Savings bank: in Europe, savings banks took their roots in the 19th or sometimes even in
the 18th century. Their original objective was to provide easily accessible savings
products to all strata of the population. In some countries, savings banks were created on
public initiative; in others, socially committed individuals created foundations to put in
place the necessary infrastructure. Nowadays, European savings banks have kept their
focus on retail banking: payments, savings products, credits and insurances for
individuals or small and medium-sized enterprises. Apart from this retail focus, they also
differ from commercial banks by their broadly decentralised distribution network, providing local and regional outreachand by their socially responsible approach to
business and society.
y Building societies and Landesbanks: institutions that conduct retail banking.
y Ethical banks: banks that prioritize the transparency of all operations and make only what
they consider to be socially-responsible investments.
y A Direct or Internet-Only bank is a banking operation without any physical bank
branches, conceived and implemented wholly with networked computers.
Investment banks
y Investment banks "underwrite" (guarantee the sale of) stock and bond issues, trade for
their own accounts, make markets, and advise corporations on capital market activities
such as mergers and acquisitions.
y Merchant banks were traditionally banks which engaged in trade finance. The modern
definition, however, refers to banks which provide capital to firms in the form of sharesrather than loans. Unlike venture capital firms, they tend not to invest in new companies.
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1.4.2 Economic functions of Banks
The economic functions of banks include:
1. Issue of money, in the form of banknotes and current accounts subject to cheque or
payment at the customer's order. These claims on banks can act as money because they
are negotiable or repayable on demand, and hence valued at par. They are effectively
transferable by mere delivery, in the case of banknotes, or by drawing a cheque that the
payee may bank or cash.
2. Netting and settlement of payments banks act as both collection and paying agents for
customers, participating in interbank clearing and settlement systems to collect, present,
be presented with, and pay payment instruments. This enables banks to economise on
reserves held for settlement of payments, since inward and outward payments offset each
other. It also enables the offsetting of payment flows between geographical areas,
reducing the cost of settlement between them.
3. Credit intermediation banks borrow and lend back-to-back on their own account as
middle men.
4. Credit quality improvement banks lend money to ordinary commercial and personal
borrowers (ordinary credit quality), but are high quality borrowers. The improvement
comes from diversification of the bank's assets and capital which provides a buffer toabsorb losses without defaulting on its obligations. However, banknotes and deposits are
generally unsecured; if the bank gets into difficulty and pledges assets as security, to raise
the funding it needs to continue to operate, this puts the note holders and depositors in an
economically subordinated position.
5. Maturity transformation banks borrow more on demand debt and short term debt, but
provide more long term loans. In other words, they borrow short and lend long. With a
stronger credit quality than most other borrowers, banks can do this by aggregating issues
(e.g. accepting deposits and issuing banknotes) and redemptions (e.g. withdrawals and
redemptions of banknotes), maintaining reserves of cash, investing in marketable
securities that can be readily converted to cash if needed, and raising replacement funding
as needed from various sources (e.g. wholesale cash markets and securities markets).
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1.5 NEED FOR THE STUDY
A better understanding of the stock market trend will facilitate allocation of
financial resources to the most profitable investment opportunity. The behavior of stock returns
will enable the investors to make appropriate investment decisions. The fluctuations of stock returns are due to several economic and non-economic factors. The study is aimed at ascertaining
the behavior of stock returns by trend analysis. The study on fluctuations in equity market helps
in understanding the behavior of equity market. It helps investors to be aware about deviations in
the returns of the stocks. The conclusions that are to be provided based on the analysis of the
data would be of immense use to the investors on one hand and the officials of the stock market
to understand the responsiveness of market price of the sample industries to different situation on
the other.
1.6 COMPANY PROFILE
Coimbatore Capital Limited (CCap) was promoted by industrialist and financial expert
Mr.D.Balasundaram, founder Director of Coimbatore Stock Exchange Limited and Inter
Connected Stock Exchange of India Limited. Mr.Balasundaram is a Member of Executive
Committee of the National Stock Exchange of India Limited (NSE) and also served as an
Executive Committee Member of the National Securities Depository Limited (NSDL) earlier.
Mr.Balasundaram also served as an elected President of Indian Chamber of Commerce and
Industry, Coimbatore and Coimbatore Stock Exchange Limited. CCap was founded with a vision
built on the concept of ' Enrich Yourself ' for the future. As Chairman of CCap and its associate
companies, he has been instrumental in building the business model for CCap. CCap is steered
forward by the combined vision of its promoters and stake holders. Headed by a team of
management, ITeS and finance experts. CCap was able to grow, sustain and envision a future of
immense potential.
The vision of its founder is taken forward by its directors, comprising experts in the industry.y Mr.B.Venkateswaran has three decades exposure to various aspects of business
administration.
y Dr.K.Sabapathy has three decades ITES specialist experience.
y Dr.S.Karthikeyan more than two decades experience in the financial market.
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The vision of CCap and its group Companies is achieved by its 500 strong team comprising
NCFM qualified personnel. Assisting them is a group of specially trained staff who extend the
support services at CCap. The team is well trained periodically to extend the best services to
achieve its mission. Back office and DP services are fully computerized and web-enabled. The
clients can view their contracts, ledgers, payment obligations and DP holdings
(www.coimbatorecapital.in). CCap conducts investor awareness meetings periodically and
budget meetings every year. The achievements of the group thus far and for the future are a
reflection of the bonds of trust it has built with its patrons. CCap is registered with the
appropriate regulatory and financial service bodies including National Stock Exchange of India
Limited (NSE) in the Cash Market, Futures and Options, Currency Derivative Segments and
Mutual Fund Services Scheme. Depository Participant (DP) of National Securities Depository
Limited (NSDL) connecting over 65,000 beneficiary account holders. Suxxus-DBS SecuritiesLimited, a subsidiary of CCap is also a member of Inter-Connected Stock Exchange of India. It
offers trading facility of Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE). The gamut of services from CCap is
based on indepth analysis of the markets, the team's strategic insights and constant market
updates. Coimbatore Commodities Limited (CCom): CCom is a wholly owned subsidiary of
CCap which extends trading in the Commodity derivatives. CCom is a Member of National
Commodities and Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) and Multi Commodities Exchange
Limited (MCX). Trading in commodities is extended in strict compliance with statutory rules
and norms. Advice on current markets, emerging trends and clarity on investments is regularly
updated by SMS alerts. Coimbatore Insurance and Investment Consultants Limited (CII) : This is
another group Company extending insurance distribution services. A team of professionals
service the clients in insurance investments. The clients are updated with the latest products in
the industry. One decade and Growing CCap is one of the most trusted and reputed investment
services company providing a wide array of wealth creation solutions for a growing client base
in South India. From modest beginning in 1995, the company emerged as one of the best stock
broking houses focusing on the retail segment in South India. Headquartered at Coimbatore,
CCap has over 150 terminals / branches across South India. CCap is focusing on expanding its
reach to semi urban and rural areas. Sound Business Practices CCap has established a
widespread network for offering its services due to its clear ideology adhering to fundamental
principles of transparent and efficient execution with high level of integrity and ethics. Strong
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client focus : CCap ideology revolves around its clients. Every minute detail of a transaction is
focused on their needs. Client service is important at CCap. Safe and Secure : CCap witnessed
the meteoric growth of the investment portfolio of its clients since its inception.
1.7 OBJECTIVES OF THE STUDY
Primary Objective
The Primary objective of the study is to analyse the share price movements of all the
public and 15 private banks in NSE.
Secondary Objectives
To find out the future trends of banks.
y To rank the banks based on the calculated future trends for the next five months.y To estimate the trends in the rate of return for the banks.y To evaluate the volatilities of share prices.y To suggest solution based on the result of the analysis.
1.8 SCOPE OF THE STUDY
To predict the future trends of the banks.
y Suggest the investors to invest on better scripts on the basis of the analysis.y To better understand the stock market which will facilitate allocation of financial
resources to the most profitable investment opportunity.
1.9 LIMITATIONS OF THE STUDY
The main limitations of the study are as follows.
y In calculating trends, only two decimal points are considered and frequency is calculated
by rounding it off to near 0.25%.
y Foreign banks and commercial banks are not taken into account.y The intraday prices of the shares are not considered.
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Chapter 2Review of literature
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CHAPTER 2
REVIEW OF LITERATURE
The purpose of the chapter is to review the various studies conducted and made toconsolidate the views and studies to determine the effectiveness of different factor which
influence the equity price.
Eugene F. Fama(jan.,1965) 1 studied, the Behavior of stock market prices. The main objective
of the theory is to find answer to the question: to what extent can be used to make meaningful
predictions concerning the future prices of stocks?
Prof. Leopold A. Bernstein (1975)2
in his article had defended the function and value of fundamental investment analysis as the basis of successful investment in equity shares. He had
argued that even though psychological and other factors accounted 50% of price changes the
other 50% of it was only due to fundamental factors.
Prakash L. Dheeriya 3 studied the early movement of stock market indices of major rational
stock exchanges of 16 countries over the period of 1987 crash. He used time series of daily stock
market indices at closing time. He found evidence of co-integration between stock indices of
some small European countries.
Jay R. Ritter (1998) 4 analyzed the buy/ sell details of NYSE stocks over a period of 15
years from Dec 17, 1970 to Dec 16, 1985. Ritter proposed the parking- the proceeds
hypothesis i.e., the individual investors who sell the stocks prior to the late December for tax
1 Eugene F. Fama, T he Behavior of Stock Market Prices ". T he Journal of Business , Vol. 38, No. 1. (Jan.,1965), pp.34-105.
2 Prof. Leopold A. Bernstein, Successful Investment. In defense of fundamental analysis , Vol. 31,(1975), pp. 34-57
3 Prakash L. Dheeriya Early movements of stock market index , Academy of Banking Studies Journal, Vol. 8, No.1(1987), pp. 213-267
4 Jay R. Ritter, Cordell Professor of Finance, "The Market's Problems with the Pricing of Initial Public Offerings", Contemporary Finance Digest Vol. 2, No. 1 (Spring 1998), pp. 5-30
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loss selling and they buy the shares in early January, mostly small stocks. He concluded that
the ratio of stock purchases to sales by individual investor displays a seasonal pattern, with
individuals having a below-normal and buy/sell ratio in late December and above normal ratio
in early January.
Kshama Fernandes,Goa Institute of Management (2003) 5 studied Evaluating index fund
implementation in India In this paper, they seek to measure and understand the tracking error of
index funds in India. The consistency and level of tracking errors obtained by some wellrun
index funds suggests that it is possible to attain low levels of tracking error under Indian
conditions. At the same time, there do seem to be periods where certain index funds appear to
depart from the discipline of indexation.
Hiren M. Maniar, Rajesh Bhatt and Dharmesh M. Maniyar (2009) 6 on title Expiration Hour
Effect of Futures and Options Markets on Stock Market- A Case Study on NSE (National Stock
Exchange of India) explains the effect of expiration day of the Index futures and Options on the
trading volume, variance and price of the underlying shares
5Kshama Fernandes, Evaluating index fund implementation in India, Goa Institute of Management, GoaJuly 26, 2003 .
6 Hiren M. Maniar, Rajesh Bhatt and Dharmesh M. Maniyar, " Expiration hour effect of futures and options marketson stock market", International Review of Economics & Finance , vol. 18, issue 3, 2009, pp 381-391
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Chapter 3
Research Methodology
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CHAPTER 3
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 RESEARCH DESIGN
This project analyses the equity market and its fluctuations in India. The project
aims to analyze the average return and risk involved in the stocks of all the public and private
sector banks for the study. Trend Analysis is used to predict the future share prices of the banks.
It helps the investors to invest in the right bank. Here analytical research design is used.
3.2 SAMPLE SIZEFor the purpose of this study the daily closing prices of all the Public and 15 Private sector
banks in National Stock Exchange were taken and their price movements are computed and
studied
3.3 DATA COLLECTION METHOD
The sample of the stocks for the purpose of collecting secondary data has been selected
on the basis of Random Sampling. The stocks are chosen in an unbiased manner and each stock
is chosen independent of the other stocks chosen.
3.3.1 SOURCES OF DATA
The data about the share prices and the turnover rates were collected from the NSE
website.
3.4 TIME PERIOD COVERED
The daily share prices of all public and private sector banks were taken for a period of Aug 2010 to April 2011. The closing prices of share prices were taken and the future price
movements were analyzed.
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3.5 TOOLS USED FOR ANALYSIS
Trend Analysis is used to calculate the share price Movements of all banks.
3.5.1 TREND ANALYSIS
The financial statements can be analyzed by computing trends of series of
information. This method of direction upwards or downwards and involves the computation of
the percentage relationship that each statement item bears to the same item in the base year. The
information for the number of months is taken up and one month generally the first month is
taken as the base year. The base year is been carefully selected. The base period should be a
normal period. The price level changes in subsequent months may reduce the utility of the trend
ratios.
3.5.1.1 FORMULA TO CALCULATE TREND ANALYSIS
Where
a = Y
N
b = UY
U
U = X Base Month
Here,
Closing Price of stocks is taken as X. (Assuming August = 1, September = 2, October = 3,
November = 4, December = 5 January = 6 etc)
Yc = a + bX
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Chapter 4
Analysis And Interpretations
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CHAPTER 4
ANALYSIS AND INTERPRETATIONS
4.1 BANKING SECTOR
The banking system remains, as always, the most dominant segment of the
financial sector. Indian banks continue to build on their strengths under the regulator's watchful
eye and hence, have emerged stronger.
In the annual international ranking conducted by UK-based Brand Finance Plc, 18 Indian banks
have been included in the Brand Finance Global Banking 500. In fact, State Bank of India
(SBI), which is the first Indian bank to be ranked among the Top 50 banks in the world, has
improved its position from 36th to 34th, as per the Brand Finance study released on February 1,
2011. The brand value of SBI has enhanced to US$ 1.12 billion. ICICI Bank, the only other
Indian bank in the top 100 club has improved its position with a brand value of US$ 2.5 billion.
Indian banks contributed 1.7 per cent to the total global brand value at US$ 14.74 billion and
grew by 19 per cent in 2011, according to the study.
Nationalised banks, as a group, accounted for 51.2 per cent of the aggregate deposits, while StateBank of India (SBI) and its associates accounted for 22.5 per cent, according to Reserve Bank of
India's (RBI) 'Quarterly Statistics on Deposits and Credit of Scheduled Commercial Banks:
September 2010'. The share of New private sector banks, Old private sector banks, Foreign
banks and Regional Rural banks in aggregate deposits was 13.5 per cent, 4.5 per cent, 5.2 per
cent and 3.1 per cent respectively.
With respect to gross bank credit also, nationalised banks hold the highest share of 50.9 per cent
in the total bank credit, with SBI and its associates at 23.1 per cent and New Private sector banks
at 13.7 per cent. Foreign banks, Old private sector banks and Regional Rural banks held
relatively lower shares in the total bank credit with 5.2 per cent, 4.5 per cent and 2.5 per cent
respectively.
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The report also found that scheduled commercial bank offices (with deposits of US$ 2.25 or
more) accounted for 66.2 per cent of the bank offices, 96.6 per cent in terms of aggregate
deposits and 93.8 per cent in total bank credit.
Bank loans registered a growth of 21.38 per cent in 2010-11, while deposit growth stood at 15.84
per cent, according to data released by RBI. Analysts and bankers said a growth rate of 18 per
cent in deposits and 20 per cent in credit should be sustainable for banks in 2011-12.
India's foreign exchange reserves stood at US$ 308.2 billion as on April 8, 2011, according to the
data in the weekly statistical supplement released by RBI.
Indians who live and work abroad have remitted US$ 55 billion in 2010 as compared to US$
49.6 billion in 2009 and have topped the world list in sending money back home, according toWorld Bank's Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011. With online money transfer services
provided by many banks becoming popular, remitting money from any corner of the world is no
more a problem.
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4.1.1 TREND ANALYSIS
PUBLIC SECTOR BANKS
TABLE I
This table has the closing stock of Allahabad Bank for the month of August 2010 to April 2011
using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS FOR ALLAHABAD BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UY
Aug-10 1 209 -4 16 -836Sep-10 2 232.2 -3 9 -696.6Oct-10 3 247.75 -2 4 -495.5Nov-10 4 239.5 -1 1 -239.5Dec-10 5 225.9 0 0 0Jan-11 6 202.45 1 1 202.45Feb-11 7 198.3 2 4 396.6Mar-11 8 229.75 3 9 689.25Apr-11 9 205.1 4 16 820.4
1989.95 60 -158.9
Source: www.nseindia.com
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Allahabad Bank for the month of May is predicted to
be 207.86, for the month of June is predicted to be 205.21, for the month of July is predicted to
be 202.56, for the month of August is predicted to be 199.91 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 197.26.
Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re pr ice
207.86205.21202.56199.91197.26
May-11Jun-11Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
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CHART I
TREND ANALYSIS FOR ALLAHABAD BANK
TABLE II
This table has the closing stock of Andhra Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF ANDHRA BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 151.85 -4 16 -607.4Sep-10 2 159.7 -3 9 -479.1Oct-10 3 178.2 -2 4 -356.4Nov-10 4 157.8 -1 1 -157.8Dec-10 5 150.45 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 139.65 1 1 139.65Feb-11 7 135.7 2 4 271.4Mar-11 8 150.65 3 9 451.95Apr-11 9 138.95 4 16 555.8
1362.95 60 -181.9
Source: www.nseindia.com
207.86
205.21
202.56
199.91
197.26
190
192
194
196
198
200
202
204
206
208
210
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
C ha r t T itl e
Series3
Series2
Series1
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Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Andhra Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
136.29, for the month of June is predicted to be 133.26, for the month of July is predicted to be
130.23, for the month of August is predicted to be 127.2 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 124.17.
CHART II
TREND ANALYSIS FOR ANDHRA BANK
136.29
133.26
130.23
127.2
124.17
118
120
122
124
126
128
130
132
134
136
138
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series3
Series2
Series1
127.2124.17
May-11Jun-11Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re p r ice
136.29133.26130.23
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TABLE III
This table has the closing stock of Bank of Baroda for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF BANK OF BARODA
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 825.15 -4 16 -3300.6Sep-10 2 872.5 -3 9 -2617.5Oct-10 3 1014.15 -2 4 -2028.3
Nov-10 4 913 -1 1 -913Dec-10 5 896.7 0 0 0Jan-11 6 869.5 1 1 869.5Feb-11 7 870.75 2 4 1741.5Mar-11 8 964.85 3 9 2894.55Apr-11 9 911.9 4 16 3647.6
8138.5 60 293.75 Source: www.nseindia.com
Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re p r ice928.78933.68938.58943.48948.38
May-11Jun-11Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Bank of Baroda for the month of May is predicted to be
928.78, for the month of June is predicted to be 933.68, for the month of July is predicted to be938.58, for the month of August is predicted to be 943.48 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 948.38.
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CHART III
TREND ANALYSIS FOR BANK OF BARODA
928.78
933.68
938.58
943.48
948.38
915
920
925
930
935
940
945
950
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series3
Series2
Series1
TABLE IV
This table has the closing stock of Bank of Maharastra for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF BANK OF MAHARASTRA
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 67.75 -4 16 -271Sep-10 2 70.75 -3 9 -212.25
Oct-10 3 77.65 -2 4 -155.3Nov-10 4 68.8 -1 1 -68.8
Dec-10 5 66.35 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 59.15 1 1 59.15Feb-11 7 56.95 2 4 113.9
Mar-11 8 59.7 3 9 179.1Apr-11 9 60.2 4 16 240.8
587.3 60 -114.4
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re p r ice
Aug-11 50.01
Sep-11 48.1
May-11 55.73Jun-11 53.82Jul-11 51.91
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Bank of Maharastra for the month of May is predicted
to be 55.73, for the month of June is predicted to be 53.82, for the month of July is predicted to
be 51.91, for the month of August is predicted to be 50.01 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 48.1.
CHART IV
TREND ANALYSIS FOR BANK OF MAHARASTRA
55.73
53.82
51.91
50.01
48.1
44
46
48
50
52
54
56
58
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
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TABLE V
This table has the closing stock of Canara Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF CANARA BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 513.95 -4 16 -2055.8Sep-10 2 583.05 -3 9 -1749.15Oct-10 3 721.5 -2 4 -1443Nov-10 4 741.5 -1 1 -741.5Dec-10 5 660.25 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 602.9 1 1 602.9Feb-11 7 614.15 2 4 1228.3Mar-11 8 626.25 3 9 1878.75Apr-11 9 631.85 4 16 2527.4
5695.4 60 247.9
Source: www.nseindia.com
Tre nd for future month Pre dicte d future price653.49657.62661.75665.88670.01
May-11Jun-11Jul-11Aug-11Sep-11
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Canara Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
653.49, for the month of June is predicted to be 657.62, for the month of July is predicted to be
661.75, for the month of August is predicted to be 665.88 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 670.01.
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CHART V
TREND ANALYSIS FOR CANARA BANK
653.49
657.62
661.75
665.88
670.01
645
650
655
660
665
670
675
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
TABLE VI
This table has the closing stock of Central Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 179.4 -4 16 -717.6
Sep-10 2 194.6 -3 9 -583.8
Oct-10 3 226.25 -2 4 -452.5
Nov-10 4 188.75 -1 1 -188.75
Dec-10 5 181.7 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 172.15 1 1 172.15
Feb-11 7 153.9 2 4 307.8
Mar-11 8 140.5 3 9 421.5
Apr-11 9 134.65 4 16 538.6
1571.9 60 -502.6
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Tre nd for future month Pre dicte d future price
132.78124.4
116.02
107.6599.27
May-11Jun-11Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Central Bank of India for the month of May is
predicted to be 132.78, for the month of June is predicted to be 124.4, for the month of July is
predicted to be 116.02, for the month of August is predicted to be 107.65 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 99.27.
CHART VI
TREND ANALYSIS FOR CENTRAL BANK OF INDIA
132.78124.4
116.02107.65
99.27
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
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TABLE VII
This table has the closing stock of Corporation Bank for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF CORPORATION BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 569.75 -4 16 -2279Sep-10 2 692.95 -3 9 -2078.85Oct-10 3 746.15 -2 4 -1492.3Nov-10 4 708.95 -1 1 -708.95Dec-10 5 636.2 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 575.35 1 1 575.35Feb-11 7 546.9 2 4 1093.8Mar-11 8 636.2 3 9 1908.6Apr-11 9 580.2 4 16 2320.8
5692.65 60 -660.55 Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
Aug-11 544.43Sep-11 533.44
May-11 577.48
Jun-11 566.47Jul-11 555.46
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Corporation Bank for the month of May is predicted to
be 577.48, for the month of June is predicted to be 566.47, for the month of July is predicted to
be 555.46, for the month of August is predicted to be 544.45 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 533.44.
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CHART VII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR CORPORATION BANK
577.48
566.47
555.46
544.45
533.44
510
520
530
540
550
560
570
580
590
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
TABLE VIII
This table has the closing stock of Dena Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF DENA BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 102.8 -4 16 -411.2
Sep-10 2 106.05 -3 9 -318.15
Oct-10 3 136.7 -2 4 -273.4
Nov-10 4 125.9 -1 1 -125.9
Dec-10 5 116.5 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 104.75 1 1 104.75Feb-11 7 95.1 2 4 190.2
Mar-11 8 104 3 9 312
Apr-11 9 104.25 4 16 417
996.05 60 -104.7
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Tre nd for future month Pre dicte d future price
Aug-11 96.72Sep-11 94.97
May-11 101.95Jun-11 100.21Jul-11 98.46
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Dena Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
101.95, for the month of June is predicted to be 100.21, for the month of July is predicted to be
98.46, for the month of August is predicted to be 96.72 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 94.97.
CHART VIII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR DENA BANK
101.95
100.21
98.46
96.72
94.97
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug -11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
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TABLE IX
This table has the closing stock of Indian Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF INDIAN BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 248.45 -4 16 -993.8
Sep-10 2 278.7 -3 9 -836.1
Oct-10 3 291.8 -2 4 -583.6
Nov-10 4 278.75 -1 1 -278.75
Dec-10 5 246.8 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 210.45 1 1 210.45
Feb-11 7 204.4 2 4 408.8
Mar-11 8 232.75 3 9 698.25
Apr-11 9 241.1 4 16 964.4
2233.2 60 -410.35
Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 193.42Sep-11 186.59
May-11 213.94
Jun-11 207.1Jul-11 200.26
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Indian Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
213.94, for the month of June is predicted to be 207.1, for the month of July is predicted to be
200.26, for the month of August is predicted to be 193.42 and for the month of September is predicted to be 186.59.
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CHART IX
TREND ANALYSIS FOR INDIAN BANK
213.94
207.1
200.26
193.42
186.59
170
175
180
185
190
195
200
205
210
215
220
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
TABLE X
This table has the closing stock of Indian Overseas Bank for the month of August 2010
to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 124.7 -4 16 -498.8Sep-10 2 131.95 -3 9 -395.85Oct-10 3 159.8 -2 4 -319.6Nov-10 4 147.2 -1 1 -147.2Dec-10 5 146.6 0 0 0Jan-11 6 130.1 1 1 130.1Feb-11 7 133.25 2 4 266.5Mar-11 8 143.8 3 9 431.4Apr-11 9 152.55 4 16 610.2
1269.95 60 76.75 Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
Aug-11 151.34Sep-11 152.62
May-11 147.51Jun-11 148.79Jul-11 150.06
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Indian Overseas Bank for the month of May is
predicted to be 147.51, for the month of June is predicted to be 148.79, for the month of July is
predicted to be 150.06, for the month of August is predicted to be 151.34 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 152.62.
CHART X
TREND ANALYSIS FOR INDIAN OVERSEAS BANK
147.51148.79
150.06
151.34
152.62
144
145
146
147
148
149
150
151
152153
154
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
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TABLE XI
This table has the closing stock of Oriental Bank of Commerce for the month of August
2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the
stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 424.4 -4 16 -1697.6Sep-10 2 460.8 -3 9 -1382.4Oct-10 3 498.9 -2 4 -997.8
Nov-10 4 424.25 -1 1 -424.25Dec-10 5 405.3 0 0 0Jan-11 6 330.3 1 1 330.3Feb-11 7 324.55 2 4 649.1Mar-11 8 389.05 3 9 1167.15Apr-11 9 345.55 4 16 1382.2
3603.1 60 -973.3
Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dict e d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 270.58Sep-11 254.35
May-11 319.24Jun-11 303.02Jul-11 286.8
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Oriental Bank of Commerce for the month of May is
predicted to be 319.24, for the month of June is predicted to be 303.02, for the month of July is
predicted to be 286.8, for the month of August is predicted to be 270.58 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 254.35.
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CHART XI
TREND ANALYSIS FOR ORIENTAL BANK OF COMMERCE
319.24303.02 286.8
270.58254.35
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
May-11 Jun-11 Jul -11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
TABLE XII
This table has the closing stock of Punjab and Sind Bank for the month of August 2010
to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF PUNJAB AND SIND BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYDec-10 1 128.35 -2 4 -256.7Jan-11 2 105.45 -1 1 -105.45Feb-11 3 103.95 0 0 0Mar-11 4 109.4 1 1 109.4Apr-11 5 110.3 2 4 220.6
557.45 10 -32.15 Source: www.nseindia.com
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Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Punjab and Sind Bank for the month of May is
predicted to be 101.85, for the month of June is predicted to be 98.63, for the month of July is
predicted to be 95.42, for the month of August is predicted to be 92.2 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 88.99.
CHART XII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR PUNJAB AND SIND BANK
101.8598.63
95.42
92.288.99
80
85
90
95
100
105
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
P r
i c e s
Month s
Series1
Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 92.2Sep-11 88.99
May-11 101.85Jun-11 98.63Jul-11 95.42
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TABLE XIII
This table has the closing stock of Punjab National Bank for the month of August 2010
to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 1180.25 -4 16 -4721Sep-10 2 1293.2 -3 9 -3879.6Oct-10 3 1290.8 -2 4 -2581.6Nov-10 4 1218.6 -1 1 -1218.6
Dec-10 5 1222 0 0 0Jan-11 6 1104.45 1 1 1104.45Feb-11 7 1062 2 4 2124Mar-11 8 1212.7 3 9 3638.1Apr-11 9 1185.1 4 16 4740.4
10769.1 60 -793.85 Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
Aug-11 1090.72Sep-11 1077.49
May-11 1130.42Jun-11 1117.19Jul-11 1103.96
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Punjab National Bank for the month of May is predicted to be 1130.42, for the month of June is predicted to be 1117.19, for the month of July
is predicted to be 1103.96, for the month of August is predicted to be 1090.72 and for the month
of September is predicted to be 1077.49.
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CHART XIII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR PUNJAB NATIONAL BANK
1130.42
1117.19
1103.96
1090.72
1077.49
1050
1060
1070
1080
1090
1100
1110
1120
1130
1140
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XIV
This table has the closing stock of Syndicate Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF SYNDICATE BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 108.7 -4 16 -434.8
Sep-10 2 114.6 -3 9 -343.8
Oct-10 3 138.8 -2 4 -277.6
Nov-10 4 137.85 -1 1 -137.85
Dec-10 5 128.1 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 106.6 1 1 106.6
Feb-11 7 114.35 2 4 228.7
Mar-11 8 122.7 3 9 368.1
Apr-11 9 116.85 4 16 467.41088.55 60 -23.25
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Syndicate Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
119.02, for the month of June is predicted to be 118.63, for the month of July is predicted to be
118.24, for the month of August is predicted to be 117.85 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 117.47.
CHART XIV
TREND ANALYSIS FOR SYNDICATE BANK
119.02
118.63
118.24
117.85
117.47
116.5
117
117.5
118
118.5
119
119.5
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
P re dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 117.85
Sep-11 117.47
May-11 119.02Jun-11 118.63Jul-11 118.24
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TABLE XV
This table has the closing stock of UCO Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF UCO BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 111.4 -4 16 -445.6
Sep-10 2 113 -3 9 -339
Oct-10 3 125.5 -2 4 -251
Nov-10 4 138.85 -1 1 -138.85
Dec-10 5 116.1 0 0 0Jan-11 6 107.65 1 1 107.65
Feb-11 7 97.7 2 4 195.4
Mar-11 8 107 3 9 321
Apr-11 9 104.45 4 16 417.81021.65 60 -132.6
Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
Aug-11 95.84Sep-11 93.63
May-11 102.47Jun-11 100.26Jul-11 98.05
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of UCO Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
102.47, for the month of June is predicted to be 100.26, for the month of July is predicted to be
98.05, for the month of August is predicted to be 95.84 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 93.63.
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CHART XV
TREND ANALYSIS FOR UCO BANK
102.47
100.26
98.05
95.84
93.63
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
102
104
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XVI
This table has the closing stock of Union Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF UNION BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 329 -4 16 -1316Sep-10 2 388.9 -3 9 -1166.7Oct-10 3 377.95 -2 4 -755.9Nov-10 4 352.3 -1 1 -352.3Dec-10 5 347.1 0 0 0Jan-11 6 330.1 1 1 330.1Feb-11 7 314 2 4 628Mar-11 8 347.25 3 9 1041.75Apr-11 9 319.3 4 16 1277.2
3105.9 60 -313.85 Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dict e d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 303.26Sep-11 298.03
May-11 318.95Jun-11 313.72Jul-11 308.49
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Union Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
318.95, for the month of June is predicted to be 313.72, for the month of July is predicted to be
308.49, for the month of August is predicted to be 303.26 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 298.03.
CHART XVI
TREND ANALYSIS FOR UNION BANK
318.95
313.72
308.49
303.26
298.03
285
290
295
300
305
310
315
320
325
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
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TABLE XVII
This table has the closing stock of United Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF UNITED BANK OF INDIA
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 94.45 -4 16 -377.8Sep-10 2 117.2 -3 9 -351.6Oct-10 3 126.55 -2 4 -253.1Nov-10 4 118.2 -1 1 -118.2
Dec-10 5 99.35 0 0 0Jan-11 6 94.75 1 1 94.75Feb-11 7 90.7 2 4 181.4Mar-11 8 106.3 3 9 318.9Apr-11 9 109.95 4 16 439.8
957.45 60 -65.85 Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 97.61Sep-11 96.51
May-11 100.9Jun-11 99.8Jul-11 98.71
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of United Bank of India for the month of May is predicted
to be 100.9, for the month of June is predicted to be 99.8, for the month of July is predicted to be
98.71, for the month of August is predicted to be 97.61 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 96.51.
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CHART XVII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR UNITED BANK OF INDIA
100.9
99.8
98.71
97.61
96.51
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XVIII
This table has the closing stock of Vijaya Bank for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF VIJAYA BANK
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 78.95 -4 16 -315.8Sep-10 2 81.5 -3 9 -244.5Oct-10 3 106.75 -2 4 -213.5Nov-10 4 96.2 -1 1 -96.2Dec-10 5 101.8 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 90.65 1 1 90.65Feb-11 7 75.8 2 4 151.6Mar-11 8 79.45 3 9 238.35Apr-11 9 83.05 4 16 332.2
794.15 60 -57.2 Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 80.62Sep-11 79.66
May-11 83.48Jun-11 82.52Jul-11 81.57
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Vijaya Bank for the month of May is predicted to be
83.48, for the month of June is predicted to be 82.52, for the month of July is predicted to be
81.57, for the month of August is predicted to be 80.62 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 79.66.
CHART XVIII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR VIJAYA BANK
83.48
82.52
81.57
80.62
79.66
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e
s
Month s
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TABLE XIX
This table has the closing stock of IDBI Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF IDBI BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 121.55 -4 16 -486.2Sep-10 2 152.4 -3 9 -457.2Oct-10 3 180.6 -2 4 -361.2Nov-10 4 163.5 -1 1 -163.5Dec-10 5 165.05 0 0 0Jan-11 6 141.75 1 1 141.75Feb-11 7 131.75 2 4 263.5Mar-11 8 142.45 3 9 427.35Apr-11 9 143.45 4 16 573.8
1342.5 60 -61.7 Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
144.03143141.97140.94139.92
May-11Jun-11Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of IDBI Bank ltd. for the month of May is predicted to be
144.03, for the month of June is predicted to be 143, for the month of July is predicted to be141.97, for the month of August is predicted to be 140.94 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 139.92.
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CHART XIX
TREND ANALYSIS FOR IDBI BANK LTD
144.03
143
141.97
140.94
139.92
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XX
This table has the closing stock of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur for the month of
August 2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of
the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF BIKANER AND JAIPUR
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 696.4 -4 16 -2785.6Sep-10 2 708.5 -3 9 -2125.5Oct-10 3 721.65 -2 4 -1443.3Nov-10 4 633.3 -1 1 -633.3Dec-10 5 629.65 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 543.95 1 1 543.95Feb-11 7 577.8 2 4 1155.6Mar-11 8 521.2 3 9 1563.6Apr-11 9 550.5 4 16 2202
5582.95 60 -1522.55
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 417.33Sep-11 391.95
May-11 493.45Jun-11 468.08Jul-11 442.7
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of State Bank of Bikaner and Jaipur for the month of May
is predicted to be 493.45, for the month of June is predicted to be 468.08, for the month of July is
predicted to be 442.7, for the month of August is predicted to be 417.33 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 391.95.
CHART XX
TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF BIKANER AND JAIPUR
493.45468.08 442.7
417.33391.95
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
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TABLE XXI
This table has the closing stock of State Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF INDIA
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 2766.4 -4 16 -11065.6Sep-10 2 3240.45 -3 9 -9721.35Oct-10 3 3150.6 -2 4 -6301.2
Nov-10 4 2992.2 -1 1 -2992.2Dec-10 5 2811.9 0 0 0Jan-11 6 2642.4 1 1 2642.4Feb-11 7 2630.45 2 4 5260.9Mar-11 8 2765.3 3 9 8295.9Apr-11 9 2804.6 4 16 11218.4
25804.3 60 -2662.75 Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 2512.12Sep-11 2467.74
May-11 2645.25Jun-11 2600.87Jul-11 2556.5
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of State Bank of India for the month of May is predicted
to be 2645.25, for the month of June is predicted to be 2600.87, for the month of July is predicted to be 2556.5, for the month of August is predicted to be 2512.12 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 2467.74.
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CHART XXI
TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF INDIA
2645.25
2600.87
2556.5
2512.12
2467.74
2350
2400
2450
2500
2550
2600
2650
2700
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XXII
This table has the closing stock of State Bank of Mysore for the month of August 2010
to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF MYSORE
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 1083.2 -4 16 -4332.8Sep-10 2 909.6 -3 9 -2728.8Oct-10 3 836.05 -2 4 -1672.1Nov-10 4 714.5 -1 1 -714.5Dec-10 5 701.3 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 617.4 1 1 617.4Feb-11 7 654.55 2 4 1309.1Mar-11 8 652.4 3 9 1957.2Apr-11 9 682.5 4 16 2730
6851.5 60 -2834.5 Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dict e d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 383.35Sep-11 336.11
May-11 525.07Jun-11 477.83Jul-11 430.59
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of State Bank of Mysore for the month of May is
predicted to be 525.07, for the month of June is predicted to be 477.83, for the month of July is
predicted to be 430.59, for the month of August is predicted to be 383.35 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 336.11.
CHART XXII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF MYSORE
525.07477.83
430.59383.35
336.11
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
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TABLE XXIII
This table has the closing stock of State Bank of Travancore for the month of August
2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the
stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF STATE BANK OF TRAVANCORE
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 804.8 -4 16 -3219.2
Sep-10 2 906.85 -3 9 -2720.55
Oct-10 3 889.65 -2 4 -1779.3
Nov-10 4 816.1 -1 1 -816.1
Dec-10 5 830.8 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 701.2 1 1 701.2
Feb-11 7 704.6 2 4 1409.2
Mar-11 8 744.4 3 9 2233.2
Apr-11 9 777.6 4 16 3110.4
7176 60 -1081.15 Source : www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
Aug-11 653.18Sep-11 635.17
May-11 707.24Jun-11 689.22Jul-11 671.2
InterpretationThe Future price for the shares of State Bank of Travancore for the month of May is
predicted to be 707.24, for the month of June is predicted to be 689.22, for the month of July is
predicted to be 671.2, for the month of August is predicted to be 653.18 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 635.17.
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CHART XXIII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR STATE BANK OF TRAVANCORE
707.24
689.22
671.2
653.18
635.17
580
600
620
640
660
680
700
720
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XXIV
This table has the closing stock of Bank of India for the month of August 2010 to April
2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF BANK OF INDIA
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 442.35 -4 16 -1769.4Sep-10 2 517.45 -3 9 -1552.35Oct-10 3 486.55 -2 4 -973.1Nov-10 4 467.8 -1 1 -467.8
Dec-10 5 451.6 0 0 0Jan-11 6 439.1 1 1 439.1Feb-11 7 439.55 2 4 879.1Mar-11 8 475.35 3 9 1426.05Apr-11 9 457.1 4 16 1828.4
4176.85 60 -190
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Tre nd fo r futu re month P re dict e d futu re pr ice
Sep-11 495.56
445.07448.24
438.73
441.9Jul-11
Aug-11
May-11Jun-11
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Bank of India for the month of May is predicted to be
448.24, for the month of June is predicted to be 445.07, for the month of July is predicted to be
441.9, for the month of August is predicted to be 438.73 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 495.56.
CHART XXIV
TREND ANALYSIS FOR BANK OF INDIA
448.24445.07
441.9438.73
495.56
410
420
430
440
450
460
470
480
490
500
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
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PRIVATE SECTOR BANKS
TABLE XXV
This table has the closing stock of City Union Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010
to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF CITY UNION BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 43.7 -4 16 -174.8
Sep-10 2 45.05 -3 9 -135.15
Oct-10 3 50.6 -2 4 -101.2
Nov-10 4 49.8 -1 1 -49.8
Dec-10 5 49.6 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 42 1 1 42Feb-11 7 43.8 2 4 87.6
Mar-11 8 44.8 3 9 134.4
Apr-11 9 43.55 4 16 174.2
412.9 60 -22.75
Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d future priceTre nd for future month
Aug-11 42.85Sep-11 42.47
May-11 43.99Jun-11 43.61Jul-11 43.23
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of City Union Bank Ltd for the month of May is predicted
to be 43.99, for the month of June is predicted to be 43.61, for the month of July is predicted to
be 43.23, for the month of August is predicted to be 42.85 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 42.47.
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CHART XXV
TREND ANALYSIS FOR CITY UNION BANK LTD.
43.99
43.61
43.23
42.85
42.47
41.5
42
42.5
43
43.5
44
44.5
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XXVI
This table has the closing stock of Dhanalakshmi Bank Ltd. for the month of August
2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the
stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF DHANALAKSHMI BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 179.7 -4 16 -718.8Sep-10 2 186.15 -3 9 -558.45Oct-10 3 186.2 -2 4 -372.4Nov-10 4 158.65 -1 1 -158.65Dec-10 5 127.3 0 0 0Jan-11 6 95.1 1 1 95.1Feb-11 7 103.65 2 4 207.3Mar-11 8 113.2 3 9 339.6Apr-11 9 125.35 4 16 501.4
1275.3 60 -664.9
Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dict e d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 53.05Sep-11 41.97
May-11 86.3Jun-11 75.21Jul-11 64.13
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Dhanalakshmi Bank Ltd for the month of May is
predicted to be 86.3, for the month of June is predicted to be 75.21, for the month of July is
predicted to be 64.13, for the month of August is predicted to be 53.05 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 41.97.
CHART XXVI
TREND ANALYSIS FOR DHANALAKSHMI BANK LTD.
86.375.21
64.13
53.05
41.97
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
P r
i c e s
Month s
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TABLE XXVII
This table has the closing stock of Federal Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF FEDERAL BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 340.05 -4 16 -1360.2Sep-10 2 392.1 -3 9 -1176.3Oct-10 3 472 -2 4 -944Nov-10 4 443.45 -1 1 -443.45
Dec-10 5 397.25 0 0 0Jan-11 6 364.2 1 1 364.2Feb-11 7 348.7 2 4 697.4Mar-11 8 418.55 3 9 1255.65Apr-11 9 419.95 4 16 1679.8
3596.25 60 73.1
Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dict e d futu re pr iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 409.33Sep-11 410.55
May-11 405.68Jun-11 406.9Jul-11 408.12
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Federal Bank Ltd for the month of May is predicted to be 405.68, for the month of June is predicted to be 406.9, for the month of July is predicted to be
408.12, for the month of August is predicted to be 409.33 and for the month of September is
predicted to be 410.55.
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CHART XXVII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR FEDERAL BANK LTD.
405.68
406.9
408.12
409.33
410.55
403
404
405
406
407
408
409
410
411
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XXVIII
This table has the closing stock of INGY Vysya Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010
to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF INGY VYSYA BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 344.7 -4 16 -1378.8
Sep-10 2 380.4 -3 9 -1141.2
Oct-10 3 403.95 -2 4 -807.9
Nov-10 4 408.2 -1 1 -408.2
Dec-10 5 368.4 0 0 0
Jan-11 6 302.6 1 1 302.6
Feb-11 7 299.5 2 4 599
Mar-11 8 321.05 3 9 963.15
Apr-11 9 345.8 4 16 1383.2
3174.6 60 -488.15 Source: www.nseindia.com
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Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month312.06303.92295.79287.65279.52
May-11Jun-11Jul-11
Aug-11Sep-11
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of INGY Vysya Bank Ltd for the month of May is
predicted to be 312.06, for the month of June is predicted to be 303.92, for the month of July is
predicted to be 295.79, for the month of August is predicted to be 287.65 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 279.52.
CHART XXVIII
TREND ANALYSIS FOR INGY VYSYA BANK LTD.
312.06
303.92
295.79
287.65
279.52
260
270
280
290
300
310
320
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
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TABLE XXIX
This table has the closing stock of Jammu and Kashmir Bank Ltd. for the month of
August 2010 to April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of
the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF JAMMU AND KASHMIR BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 769.45 -4 16 -3077.8Sep-10 2 805.2 -3 9 -2415.6Oct-10 3 910.45 -2 4 -1820.9Nov-10 4 839.95 -1 1 -839.95Dec-10 5 782.5 0 0 0Jan-11 6 735.8 1 1 735.8Feb-11 7 755.25 2 4 1510.5Mar-11 8 874 3 9 2622Apr-11 9 807.3 4 16 3229.2
7279.9 60 -56.75 Source: www.nseindia.com
Pre dicte d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 801.32Sep-11 800.37
May-11 804.15Jun-11 803.21Jul-11 802.26
InterpretationThe Future price for the shares of Jammu and Kashmir Bank Ltd for the month of May is
predicted to be 804.15, for the month of June is predicted to be 803.21, for the month of July is
predicted to be 802.26, for the month of August is predicted to be 801.32 and for the month of
September is predicted to be 800.37.
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CHART XXIX
TREND ANALYSIS FOR JAMMU AND KASHMIR BANK LTD.
804.15
803.21
802.26
801.32
800.37
798
799
800
801
802
803
804
805
May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11
S h
a r e
p r
i c e s
Month s
TABLE XXX
This table has the closing stock of Karnataka Bank Ltd. for the month of August 2010 to
April 2011 using these values we try to calculate and analyze the future trends of the stock.
TREND ANALYSIS OF KARNATAKA BANK LTD.
Month X Y U=(X-u) U UYAug-10 1 168.95 -4 16 -675.8Sep-10 2 182.6 -3 9 -547.8Oct-10 3 184.35 -2 4 -368.7Nov-10 4 164 -1 1 -164
Dec-10 5 164.65 0 0 0Jan-11 6 133.85 1 1 133.85Feb-11 7 106.65 2 4 213.3Mar-11 8 107.45 3 9 322.35Apr-11 9 113.2 4 16 452.8
1325.7 60 -634
Source: www.nseindia.com
8/3/2019 Preethi Report Final
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Pre dict e d futu re p r iceTre nd fo r futu re month
Aug-11 62.77Sep-11 52.2
May-11 94.47Jun-11 83.9Jul-11 73.34
Interpretation
The Future price for the shares of Karnataka Bank Ltd for the month of May is predicted
to be 94.47, for the month of June is predicted to be 83.9, for the month of July is predicted to be
73.34, for the month o