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Threadneedle European Select FundFrancis Ellison – Client Portfolio Manager
Funds Experience 2015 29 October 2015
Contents
Section 1Columbia Threadneedle InvestmentsSection 2Introduction
Section 3Investment process
Section 4Threadneedle European Select Fund
Section 5Stock examples
Appendix
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Section 6Outlook
Section 1Columbia Threadneedle Investments
Ameriprise Financial Inc. Overview of business lines
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Key facts ■ Group AUM of €727 billion1
■ A Fortune 500 company ■ S&P rating of A; Moody’s A3 ■ No.30 largest global asset
manager2
■ No.12 largest manager of long-term U.S. mutual funds3
■ No.3 mutual fund advisory programme in assets4
■ No.4 largest retail manager in the UK5
Financial Advisory Insurance & Annuities Asset Management
Source: Ameriprise Financial Inc. as of 30 June 2015, unless otherwise stated. 1 Group AUM represents total assets under management and administration for all Ameriprise companies combined. 2 Source: Pensions & Investments/Towers Watson Global 500 Ranking. Based on combined AUM for all Ameriprise companies as of 31 December 2013. 3 Source: Investment Company Institute (ICI). Based on Columbia Funds assets excluding money market funds as of 31 May 2015. 4 Source: Cerulli Associates – Cerulli Edge Managed Accounts edition, Q2 2015 edition (this relates to Ameriprise Financial Services, Inc). 5 Source: UK IMA Ranking. Based on Threadneedle Funds assets as of 31 May 2015.
Columbia Threadneedle Investments
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All data is for the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies as at 30 June 2015. 1 AUM includes externally managed funds under administration as well as all assets managed on a discretionary or non-discretionary basis by the entities in the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.
■ An established global asset management group ■ AUM of €453.0 billion ■ Offices in 18 countries ■ Over 475 investment professionals and over 2,000
people
■ Sole focus is active management of client assets ■ Offers a broad spectrum of capabilities
■ Equities ■ Fixed Income ■ Alternatives ■ Asset Allocation ■ Investment Solutions
■ Owned by Ameriprise Financial, Inc.
Assets under management1
AUM – institutional vs. wholesale
Fixed Income 40%
Equity 54%
Alternatives 6%
Institutional 41%
Retail 59%
Investment philosophy
We believe that we can deliver strong risk-adjusted returns for our clients through:
■ An active approach that takes advantage of market inefficiencies
■ Our global perspective advantage – the combination of macro and micro insights
■ The appropriate allocation of risk
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There is no guarantee that the investment objective will be achieved or that return expectations will be met.
Section 2Introduction
Our European equity credentials
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A leader in European equity ■ €47.8 billion AuM across all portfolios1
■ Consistent long-term track record of outperformance
Deep resource ■ 26-strong European equity team2 ■ Close interaction across asset classes ■ Dedicated risk management
Clear investment philosophy, consistently applied ■ Stock selection key source of return ■ Culture of collaboration and debate
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 31 August 2015. 1 AuM excludes externally managed portfolios, and includes UK-specific assets of €24.4 billion. 2 Includes 11 UK-specific investment professionals as at 30 September 2015.
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 30 September 2015.
European equities team
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Philip DickenHead of European Equities18 years’ experienceSmall Cap, Forestry & PaperThreadneedle Pan European Smaller Companies Fund
Mark Heslop 16 years’ experienceSmall CapThreadneedle European Smaller Companies Fund, Threadneedle (Lux) Pan European Small Cap Opportunities Fund
Dan Ison 21 years’ experience Aerospace, DefenceThreadneedle (Lux) Pan European Equities Fund
Dave Dudding 16 years’ experienceConsumer GoodsThreadneedle EuropeanSelect Fund
Ann Steele 33 years’ experienceConsumer Goods, Consumer ServicesThreadneedle Pan European Fund
Paul Doyle 25 years’ experienceBasic Materials, Med Tech, Transport, Oil Threadneedle European Fund
Fred Jeanmaire 8 years’ experienceTelecoms, BanksThreadneedle Pan European Focus Fund
Andrea Carzana Analyst Insurance, Industrials
5 years’ experience
Yifei Wang AnalystHealth Care, Technology
7 years’ experience
Benjamin Moore AnalystSmall Cap
7 years’ experience
Matthew Van de Schootbrugge AnalystUtilities
<1 years’ experience
Sohil Chotai AnalystSmall Cap
3 years’ experience
Francis Ellison Client PortfolioManager
32 years’ experience
Ketan Fatania Portfolio Manager’s Assistant
4 years’ experience
Mark Nichols 14 years’ experience Chemicals, Media Threadneedle Pan European Equity Dividend Fund
Section 3Investment process
European Select investment process
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The fund characteristics described above are internal guidelines (rather than limits and controls).They do not form part of the fund’s objective and policy and are subject to change without notice in the future.
Macro and themes
European equity team and other investment professionals
Company meetings
Stock analysis
45-60 holdingsInvestable universe – 1,500 companies
Portfolio construction
Risk management
Idea generation Implementation Research / debate
Pricing power
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1 Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 28 February 2015. For illustrative purposes only.
■ The market discounts a reversion to mean of excess returns
■ This is because competition will grow where there are high returns
■ Companies with pricing power and barriers to entry can sustain high returns
■ The market underestimates this and therefore under-prices these companies
■ We use Porter’s Five Forces to assess pricing power and therefore “quality”
Sustainable pricing power1
Porter’s Five Forces
Time
Ret
urn
on C
apita
l
WACC
Additional shareholder value
Barriers to entry Threat of substitution
Supplier power
Buying power
Degree of rivalry
Brenntag
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1 Source: Datastream, as at 30 September 2015, in EUR. 2 Source: Bloomberg, as at 5 October 2015.The mention of stocks is not a recommendation to deal.
Absolute performance and relative strength2-year performance¹
Year to Dec² 2015e 2016e
P/E 18.0x 16.5x
EV/EBITDA 10.9x 10.3x
RoE 17% 17%
Porter’s Five Forces
+ Growth ! Outsourcing trend ! Chemical volumes
! Consolidation ! Emerging market
■ Only 7% market share ■ Market leader
Degree of rivalry
■ Several thousand suppliers
■ Provide crucial service / access to market
Supplier power
■ 10,000 products to 160,000 customers
■ Critical to customer process
■ Low volumes
Buying power
■ In-house
Threat of substitution
■ Scale / network ■ Breadth of offer ■ Virtuous cycle
Barriers to entry
Reb
ased
= 1
00
70
90
110
130
150
9/30/13 3/3/14 8/4/14 1/5/15 6/8/15
Brenntag Brenntag relative to FTSE W Europe Index
Section 4Threadneedle European Select Fund
Threadneedle European Select FundTop 10 holdings
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 30 September 2015. 1 FTSE World Europe ex UK. The mention of stocks is not a recommendation to deal.
Company Description Fund (%) Index (%)1 Active (%)
Novo Nordisk Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 6.5 1.8 4.7
Unilever Personal Goods 6.2 1.1 5.0
Novartis Pharmaceuticals & Biotechnology 6.0 3.6 2.4
L’Oréal Personal Goods 4.9 0.8 4.2
RELX Media 4.9 0.3 4.6
Bayer Chemicals 4.7 1.9 2.7
Richemont Personal Goods 4.5 0.7 3.8
Fresenius Medical Care Health Care Equipment & Services 4.2 0.3 3.9
Brenntag Chemicals 4.0 0.2 3.8
Anheuser-Busch InBev Beverages 4.0 1.5 2.4
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Threadneedle European Select Fund Sector positioning
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 30 September 2015. Excludes Cash of 0.5%.
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Portfolio breakdown by sector
0%
8%
15%
23%
30%
Consumer GoodsHealth Care Industrials Basic Materials FinancialsConsumer Services Telecoms Technology Oil & Gas Utilities
Threadneedle European Select Fund FTSE World Europe ex UK Index
Threadneedle European Select Fund Geographic positioning
Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, as at 30 September 2015. Excludes Cash of 0.5%.Other includes Austria, Czech Republic, Greece, Hungary, Norway, Poland, Portugal and Turkey.
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Portfolio breakdown by country
0%
8%
15%
23%
30%
Germany Switzerland Netherlands France Sweden Denmark Spain Belgium Finland Ireland Italy Other
Threadneedle European Select Fund FTSE World Europe ex UK Index
Threadneedle European Select FundStrong long-term track record
1 Source: FactSet, as at 30 September 2015. Fund returns gross of tax and TER for comparison with indices. All data is quoted in EUR. Gross performance from 31 March 2010 onwards is based on daily cash flows and valuations, from 1 January 2008 to 31 March 2010 based on Global Close prices, and prior to January 2008 based on 12pm prices. Fund data is quoted on a bid to bid basis with income re-invested at bid. Index data provided by Thomson Financial Datastream. The relative returns shown are calculated on a geometric basis. Past performance is not a guide to future returns. 2 Returns used are calculated using Global Close prices from 1 January 2008, prior to this date noon prices have been used. From 1 April 2010 returns are based on daily cash flows and global closed valuations have been calculated. All returns include gross reinvested income and are gross of fees. All data is quoted in EUR. *Benchmark: FTSE World Europe Ex UK.
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Risk profile² 3 years 5 years 7 years
Information ratio 0.49 1.08 0.93
Beta 0.89 0.77 0.67
Tracking error (%) 5.25 6.33 8.08
Standard deviation of portfolio (%) 11.62 11.86 12.66
Standard deviation of benchmark (%) 11.76 13.64 16.73
Annualised (%)1 2015 YTD 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 1
year3
years5
years
Threadneedle European Select Fund 10.4 12.9 21.0 26.6 -0.1 26.5 16.1 15.9 15.8
FTSE World Europe ex UK 4.6 7.4 22.0 21.3 -12.5 9.7 4.5 13.3 9.0
Relative return +5.5 +5.1 -0.8 +4.4 +14.2 +15.3 +11.1 +2.3 +6.2
Section 5Stock examples
Assa Abloy
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1 Source: Datastream, as at 30 September 2015, Swedish Krona. 2 Source: Bloomberg, as at 5 October 2015. The mention of stocks is not a recommendation to deal.
Year to Dec² 2015e 2016e
P/E 22.0x 19.9x
EV/EBITDA 15.7x 14.5x
RoE 20% 20%
Absolute performance and relative strength2-year performance1
Porter’s Five Forces
+ Growth! Non-residential construction markets across the globe
but benefits from a switch to electromechanical locks (higher margin, replaced more frequently)
■ Medium: Assa Abloy by far the market leader but moving into new niches
Degree of rivalry
■ Medium ■ Diminishing as
Assa Abloy buys less steel, components
Supplier power
■ Low: Industry very fragmented
Buyer power
■ Low: Locks are a must-have
Threat of substitution
■ High but getting lower as business becomes electronic
Barriers to entry
Reb
ased
= 1
00
80
108
135
163
190
9/30/13 3/3/14 8/4/14 1/5/15 6/8/15Assa AbloyAssa Abloy relative to FTSE W Europe Index
Novartis
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1 Source: Datastream, as at 30 September 2015, in CHF. 2 Source: Bloomberg, as at 5 October 2015. The mention of stocks is not a recommendation to deal.
Year to Dec² 2015e 2016e
P/E 18.1x 16.9x
EV/EBITDA 17.4x 16.8x
RoE 16% 17%
Absolute performance and relative strength2-year performance1
Porter’s Five Forces
+ Growth ! Heart-failure drug Entresto ! Broad drug pipeline
■ High for generics business
■ Medium for Alcon (eyecare)
■ Medium in pharma
Degree of rivalry
■ Low: switch cost of suppliers are low
Supplier power
■ Medium: Pharma business has a lot of pressure on prices
■ Generics benefits from a switch to low-cost drugs
Buyer power
■ Low for Pharma division, Medium for Alcon (eye care) and Sandoz (generics)
Threat of substitution
■ High: R&D costs for innovative products. Complex manufacturing process for biologic drugs
Barriers to entry
Reb
ased
= 1
00
80
100
120
140
160
9/30/13 3/3/14 8/4/14 1/5/15 6/8/15
Novartis Novartis relative to FTSE W Europe Index
RELX Group
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1 Source: Datastream, as at 30 September 2015, in EUR. 2 Source: Bloomberg, as at 5 October 2015. The mention of stocks is not a recommendation to deal.
Year to Dec² 2015e 2016e
P/E 18.8x 17.7x
EV/EBITDA 13.3x 12.7x
RoE 54% 52%
Absolute performance and relative strength2-year performance1
Porter’s Five Forces
+ Growth ! Fastest-growing business (risk) has the highest margins in the group
■ Highlyconcentrated
Degree of rivalry
■ Low ■ Possibly rising (RELX
aggregates data – price of academic publications might rise)
Supplier power
■ Medium: Law firms and academic institutions have few alternatives, but they might be increasing
Buyer power
■ Medium: Possibly rising in academic journals
■ Future of car insurance a long-term issue
Threat of substitution
■ High: Scalebusiness, deep pockets required
Barriers to entry
Reb
ased
= 1
00
80
103
125
148
170
9/30/13 3/3/14 8/4/14 1/5/15 6/8/15RELX Group RELX Group relative to FTSE W Europe Index
Unilever
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1 Source: Datastream, as at 30 September 2015, in GBP. 2 Source: Bloomberg, as at 5 October 2015. The mention of stocks is not a recommendation to deal.
Year to Dec² 2015e 2016e
P/E 20.5x 19.2x
EV/EBITDA 13.6x 12.9x
RoE 35% 33%
Absolute performance and relative strength2-year performance1
Porter’s Five Forces
+ Growth ! Moving from a low-growth food stock to a higher-growth higher-return personal care company
■ High
Degree of rivalry
■ Low: Raw materials include palm oil andoil derivatives
Supplier power
■ Medium: High in Developed markets (supermarkets, discounters)
■ Low in EM where modern retail doesn’t exist / is more fragmented
Buyer power
■ Low/ Medium: Margarines losing share to butter
Threat of substitution
■ High in many emerging markets
■ Internet might lower barriers
Barriers to entry
Reb
ased
= 1
00
80
95
110
125
140
9/30/13 3/3/14 8/4/14 1/5/15 6/8/15Unilever Unilever relative to FTSE W Europe Index
Section 6Outlook
Europe offers better returns in 2015
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Source: Barclays Research, DataStream, MSCI, as at 31 August 2015.
■ Five reasons for stronger returns ■ Quantitative easing ■ Euro now a tailwind not a headwind ■ Credit demand and availability improving ■ Signs of domestic economic improvements ■ Lower oil and commodity prices
■ Forecasts of 1.0% GDP growth for 2015 have improved to 1.5%
■ Forecasts of 8% eps growth for 2015 have improved to 12%; dividends boost returns further
■ Chinese volatility may impact global growth and therefore Europe which is a major exporter
■ However much is discounted in lower valuations following market falls
European market valuation
0
13
25
38
50
19842010
MSCI Europe: Cyclically-adjusted PEAverage
Outlook summary
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■ Key considerations looking ahead ■ Employment and spending growing but can it last? ■ Trend growth c.1.5%, but is more growth feasible? ■ Investment growth to increase
■ Will inflation reach zero? ■ This would impact the ECB policy
■ Risks ■ Politics (Greece, Spain elections) ■ Geo-politics (Russia) ■ Weak external demand (Emerging markets) ■ Policy tightening elsewhere (US, UK)
Global equity valuations
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Source: Columbia Threadneedle Investments, Bloomberg, as at 13 October 2015.
Valuation levels Index Level 2015 P/E 2016 P/E 2015 P/CF 2015 Div Yield
US – S&P 500 2,015 17.0 15.5 11.0 2.2%
Europe – MSCI Europe 123 15.6 14.4 8.8 3.6%
Japan – TOPIX 1,515 14.3 13.3 9.7 1.8%
MSCI Asia ex Japan 519 12.5 11.4 8.2 2.8%
Stock-picking opportunities
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■ European equities attractive
■ Eurozone shows signs of a pickup
■ Earnings are improving
■ Opportunities still apparent in large, mid and small cap
■ We have a record of risk-adjusted outperformance derived from stock selection
Appendix
Biography
DAVID DUDDING Portfolio Manager
David Dudding joined the company as an equity research analyst in 1999 and is currently a portfolio manager within the European equities team. He manages the Threadneedle European Select Fund and the Threadneedle (Lux) Global Focus fund. David previously worked for John Swire and Sons in Hong Kong and for Investors Chronicle as a financial journalist. He holds a Modern History degree and a European Politics Masters degree from Oxford University. He also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst designation and is a member of the CFA Society of the UK. Company start date: 1999 Industry start date: 1999
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Biography
MARK NICHOLS Portfolio Manager
Mark Nichols joined Columbia Threadneedle Investments as a Portfolio Manager and Analyst within the European equities team in 2015 and he is the lead portfolio manager for the Threadneedle Pan European Equity Dividend Fund. Prior to joining the company Mark was a fund manager in the European equities team at F&C where he was responsible for the Growth & Income strategies. Prior to that he spent six years at Oechsle International Advisors, where he was a partner and a member of the investment strategy committee. Mark also covered European equities at Lehman Brothers and Invesco. Mark holds a MA in Philosophy, Politics and Economics from Oxford University and a MA in Contemporary History & Politics from London University. Company start date: 2015 Industry start date: 2001
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Biography
FRANCIS ELLISON Client Portfolio Manager
Francis Ellison is a Client Portfolio Manager. He joined the company in 2007 and is responsible for providing detailed information on its capabilities and investment views, particularly for European equities, to existing and prospective clients as well as to consultants and other intermediaries. Francis started off his career in the financial sector as a portfolio manager, first at MIM Britannia and then moving to Kleinwort Benson Investment Management. In 1992 he took up the post of Managing Director for Bank of Ireland Asset Management (UK). Francis was Head of Institutional Sales and Client Servicing at Jupiter Asset Management and after 5 years in this role, from 2000 to 2005, he moved to SEI as Head of UK Institutional Sales. Francis holds a Law degree from Durham University and speaks German, French and Italian. Company start date: 2007 Industry start date: 1983
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Threadneedle European Select FundObjectives and key risks
Objective – The aim of the Fund is to grow the amount you invested. The Fund invests at least two-thirds of its assets in shares of companies in Continental Europe or companies that have significant operations there and that have growth prospects. The Fund’s investment approach means it can invest significantly in particular companies, industries and countries. This means it will typically hold fewer investments than other funds. Investment Risk – The value of investments can fall as well as rise and investors might not get back the sum originally invested. Currency Risk – There investments are made in assets that are denominated in multiple currencies, changes in exchange rates may affect the value of the investments. ■ Effect of Portfolio Concentration – The Fund has a concentrated portfolio (holds a limited number of
investments and/or has a restricted investment universe) and if one or more of these investments declines or is otherwise affected, it may have a pronounced effect on the fund’s value.
■ Derivatives for EPM / Hedging – The fund may invest in derivatives with the aim of reducing risk or minimising the cost of transactions. Such derivative transactions may benefit or negatively affect the performance of the fund. The Manager does not intend that such use of derivatives will affect the overall risk profile of the fund.
■ High Volatility Risk – The fund typically carries a risk of high volatility due to its portfolio composition or the portfolio management techniques used. This means that the fund’s value is likely to fall and rise more frequently and pronounced than with other funds.
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Important information
For internal by for Professional and/or Qualified Investors only (not to be used with or passed on to retail clients) Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The value of investments and any income is not guaranteed and can go down as well as up and may be affected by exchange rate fluctuations. This means that an investor may not get back the amount invested. Threadneedle Investment Funds ICVC (“TIF”) is an open-ended investment company structured as an umbrella company, incorporated in England and Wales, authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority (FCA) as a UCITS scheme. TIF is registered for public offer in Austria, Belgium, Finland, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Ireland, Italy, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, Portugal, Spain, Switzerland (some sub-funds only) and the UK. Shares in the Funds may not be offered to the public in any other country and this document must not be issued, circulated or distributed other than in circumstances which do not constitute an offer to the public and are in accordance with applicable local legislation. TIF is registered with Danish Financial Services Authority for marketing to professional investors only. The Funds may not be offered or sold to retail investors in Denmark. TIF is authorised in Spain by the Comisión Nacional del Mercado de Valores (CNMV) and registered with the relevant CNMV's Registered with number 482. This presentation and its contents are confidential and proprietary. The information provided in this presentation is for the sole use of those attending the presentation. It may not be reproduced in any form or passed on to any third party without the express written permission of Threadneedle Investments. This presentation is the property of Threadneedle Investments and must be returned upon request. Het compartiment is op grond van artikel 1:107 van de Wet op het financieel toezicht opgenomen in het register dat wordt gehouden door de Autoriteit Financiële Markten. / Pursuant to article 1:107 of the Act of Financial Supervision, the subfund is included in the register that is kept by the AFM. Income may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and taxation arrangements. The difference at any one time between the sale and repurchase price of units in the scheme means that the investment should be viewed as a medium to long term investment. Investments may be subject to sudden and large falls in value, and the investor could lose the total value of the initial investment. Shares in the Funds may not be offered, sold or delivered directly or indirectly in the United States or to or for the account or benefit of any “U.S. Person”, as defined in Regulation S under the 1933 Act. This material is for information only and does not constitute an offer or solicitation of an order to buy or sell any securities or other financial instruments, or to provide investment advice or services. Please read the Prospectus before investing. This document is a marketing communication. The research and analysis included in this document have not been prepared in accordance with the legal requirements designed to promote its independence and have been produced by Threadneedle Investments for its own investment management activities, may have been acted upon prior to publication and is made available here incidentally. Any opinions expressed are made as at the date of publication but are subject to change without notice and should not be seen as investment advice. Information obtained from external sources is believed to be reliable but its accuracy or completeness cannot be guaranteed.
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Important information (cont.)
Subscriptions to a Fund may only be made on the basis of the current Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document, as well as the latest annual or interim reports and the applicable terms & conditions. Please refer to the ‘Risk Factors’ section of the Prospectus for all risks applicable to investing in any fund and specifically this Fund. The above documents are available in English, French, German, Portuguese, Italian, Spanish and Dutch (no Dutch Prospectus) and can be obtained free of charge on request from: - in Austria: Raiffeisen Zentralbank Österreich AG, Am Stadtpark 9, 1030 Wien (TIF and TSIF), and Erste Bank, Graben 21 A-1010 Wien (TFIF); - in Belgium: J.P. Morgan Chase Bank Brussels, 1, Boulevard du Roi Albert II, 1210 Brussels; - in France: BNP Paribas Securities Services, 66 rue de la Victoire, 75009 Paris; - in Finland: Eufex Bank Plc, Keilaranta 19, 02150 Espoo, Finland (TIF) - in Germany: JP Morgan AG, Junghofstr. 14, 60311 Frankfurt, - in Ireland: J.P. Morgan Bank Administration Services (Ireland) Limited, J.P. Morgan House International Financial Services Centre, Dublin 1 - in Italy: State Street Bank S.p.A., via Col Moschin 16, 20136 Milano. - in Luxembourg: State Street Bank Luxembourg S.A., 49 Avenue J. F. Kennedy, 1855 Luxembourg; - in the Netherlands: Fortis Intertrust, Rokin 55, 1012 KK Amsterdam; - in Spain: any appointed distributor listed on the Spanish Financial Regulator’s website (www.cnmv.es); - in UK; Columbia Threadneedle Investments’ Client Services department PO Box 10033 Chelmsford Essex CM99 2AL. For Swiss Investors: Subscriptions to a Fund may only be made on the basis of the current Prospectus and the Key Investor Information Document , as well as the latest annual or interim reports, which can be obtained free of charge on request, and the applicable terms & conditions. Please refer to the ‘Risk Factors’ section of the Prospectus for all risks applicable to investing in any fund and specifically this Fund. The above documents and the instrument of incorporation are available on request from our representative and Paying Agent in Switzerland, BNP Paribas Securities Services, Paris, succursale de Zurich, Selnaustrasse 16,CH-8002 Zurich. Issued by Threadneedle Investment Services Limited. Registered in England and Wales, Registered No. 3701768, Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6AG, United Kingdom. Authorised and regulated in the UK by the Financial Conduct Authority. Columbia Threadneedle Investments is the global brand name of the Columbia and Threadneedle group of companies.
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