Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong, Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron)...

Post on 17-Jan-2016

216 views 0 download

Tags:

transcript

Presented by Mei-Hsuan (Michelle) Chao, Suyang (Sean) Hong,

Jung Hyun (Jane) Kim, Shen-Ho (Ron) Yang

Agenda Company Overview Financial Analysis DCF Comparison Analysis Recommendation

Company Background Public utility holding company

Headquartered in St. Louis, MO Provide electricity and natural gas service to

Missouri and Illinois Created in December 1997 by the merger of

CIPSCO Incorporated and Union Electric Company

Listed on NYSE on January 2, 1998 Acquired CILCORP Inc. in 2003 and Illinois Power

Company in 2004

Missouri regulated: UE

Illinois regulated: CIPS CILCO IP

Non-rate-regulated generation: Genco AERG EEI

Business Segments

From 2008 annual report pg 17

Location Map

Regulation

The utility rates are determined by government entities such as MoPSC and ICC

Subjected to environment laws and regulations Need approval by FERC before issuing debt and

equity, merging, or acquiring utility

Rate Increases Missouri

MoPSC approved UE to increase electricity revenue by $162 mi on Jan 27th 09. Filled in April 08, effective by Mar 09 based on 10.76%

ROE. On July 24th 09, request rate to increase be $402

mi Expected to begin in Jun 2010.

Rate Increases (cont.) Illinois

On Sep 08, ICC approved new rate to increase Ameren’s revenue by $161 mi based on 10.7% ROE

On June 09, Ameren filled to increase $226 mi Revised to $162 mi, decision made by Mar, effective by

May

Industry Issues

Political and regulatory resistance to higher rate

Uncertain access to capital and credit market Availability of fuel and price changes Weather (summer not as hot, winter not as

cold)

Recent News

Entered into multiyear credit facility agreements that provide substantial borrowing capacity through the middle of 2011

Issued 21.9 million shares of its common stock for net proceeds of $535 million in September 2009

Rate cases pending in Illinois and Missouri jurisdictions

Most recent credit rating

SWOT Analysis

Competitors Centerpoint Energy (CNP)

Electricity capacity of 51,400 mega watts, 3.2 million customers in natural gas

Exelon Corp. (EXC) Electricity capacity of 24,809 mega watts, 5.4

million customers Great Plain Energy Inc. (GXP)

Electricity capacity of 6,000 mega watts, 82,000 customers

Earnings Summary

Performance drivers

↓ Higher fuel and related transportation pries

↓ Increased distribution system reliability expenditures

↓ Higher plant operations and maintenance operations

↓ Unfavorable weather conditions

↑ Higher realized margins from non-rate regulated generation operations

↑ The absence of costs in 2008 that were incurred in January 2007 associated with electric outages caused by severe ice storms

↑ The reduced impact in 2008 of the electric rate relief and customer assistance program provided to certain customers in Illinois

↑ higher electric and natural gas delivery service rates

Profitability

Financial Leverage

Efficiency

DuPont Analysis

  2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

NI/EBT 0.64 0.64 0.61 0.63 0.63 0.62

EBT/EBIT 0.75 0.75 0.77 0.71 0.70 0.69

EBIT/Sales 0.24 0.22 0.19 0.18 0.19 0.18

Sales/Assets 0.35 0.32 0.38 0.36 0.38 0.36

Assets/Equity 3.22 3.12 2.93 2.92 3.02 3.16

             

Return on Equity 12.79% 10.44% 9.96% 8.45% 9.25% 8.82%

Return on Assets 3.97% 3.35% 3.40% 2.90% 3.06% 2.79%

DuPont Analysis

Stock performance comparison

Management Assessment Focused on delivering safe, reliable, and

affordable energy, while achieving solid returns-  A commitment to investing in our Illinois and Missouri regulated business

- Building Constructive Regulatory Frame-works

- Optimizing our existing non-rate-regulated generation assets

- Demonstrating Environmental Leadership

Consistent management - Good at predicting economic outlook and its impact on the company

Assumptions Annual revenue growth

Electricity 9% Gas 12%

COGS growth Fuel declining from 9.5% and 1% decreasing every

year Gas declining from 15% and 2% decreasing every year

Depreciation Straight line at 3% of the gross PP&E

Capital expenditure $1,685 mi in 2009 and $6,600 mi to $8,700 mi over

next four years

DCFForecasted

  2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013Net Income 605.00 631.79 753.09 886.69 1143.13 1433.05 Depreciation/Amortization 685.00 802.53 852.03 901.53 951.03 1000.53 Capital Expenditures (1896.00) (1685.00) (1650.00) (1650.00) (1650.00) (1650.00)Changes in Net Working Capital 351.00 (17.82) 63.63 68.65 189.86 (159.05)

FCF (255.00) (268.50) 18.75 206.87 634.02 624.53 Terminal Value           14225.44              Present Value of FCFF   (250.93) 16.38 168.86 483.69 10587.83

Sustainable Growth Rate 2.5%WACC 7.0%

Firm Value  Current  Value of Operations 11,005.83 Cash & Cash Equivalence 92.00 Debt 6,554.0 Stock Price 21.22 Equals Value +/- 10% 23.34 / 19.10

Peer Comparison

Peer Comparison

  Ameren Minimum Average Maximum

Trailing P/E 9.34 10.87 13.19 16.04

Forward P/E 10.63 10.44 11.64 16.04

P/S multiple 0.84 0.56 1.17 1.72

P/B multiple 0.77 0.85 1.72 2.43

EV/EBITDA multiple

6.20 5.94 7.88 10.15

Correlation

CORRELATION WITH AEE

AEO 0.022

DO 0.177

FR 0.569

JKHY 0.268

KMB 0.391

MCD 0.435

SRCL 0.133

WAG 0.335

WFR 0.183

Portfolio Chart

Current Holding Position Purchased 400 shares at $50.03 on April 27,

2006 Sold 200 shares at $20.84 on March 16, 2009 Currently hold 200 shares

Recommendation The close price on November 18, 2009 is $25.88 Based on our assumptions, the intrinsic value is

$19.1~23.34

We recommend to sell the remaining 200 shares at the market price due to the projected negative FCF and the high percentage of terminal value in the present value

Sources 2005 - 2008 Ameren 10K Reports Yahoo Finance (finance.yahoo.com) Google Finance (finance.google.com) Reuters (www.reuters.com) Ameren website (www.ameren.com) Bloomberg One source