AAII San Francisco Meeting Saturday March 20, 2010Presented by: Tom Kopas

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Since 2000 a “Lost Decade” For Investors…

Are you Prepared for Another “Lost Decade?”

The Secular and Cyclical Outlook for Stocks, Bonds, and Commodities

1

2

3

4

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19-years/69% decline/6 recessions

19-years/67% decline/4 recessions

16-years/62% decline/4 recessions

10-years/43% decline/2 recessions

www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

19011929

1966

2000

1 5

6

7

2

3

4

15

6

7

2

3

41

5

2

3

41

2

3

4

Price Moves in Excess of 25%

Key Points: Secular Trend for Stocks

Long Periods of Alternating Good and Bad Performance

Secular Trends Change at Extreme Valuation Levels

Currently Halfway through our 4th Secular Bear Market

Be Aware of the Secular Bull Market for Commodities

Capitalize on Cyclical Stock Market Opportunities (Today)

Understanding Secular Environment is Key to Success

Financial markets are linked in a logical, rational, and sequential relationship to business activity. Financial markets have been tracking these business cycle sequences for over 150 years.

Pring Turner Investment Approach

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www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group9

Key Points: Investing Around the Business Cycle

Markets are Linked in a Logical, Rational, Sequential Relationship

For over 150 Years, Markets have Tracked Business Cycle Sequences

During Secular Bear Markets Economy in Recession More Often

Pring Turner Organizes the Business Cycle into 6 stages

Just Entered Stage 4 Good for Stocks and Inflation Sensitive Securities Bad for Bonds

Business Cycle Drives Profitable Asset Allocation Decisions

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(Inverted)

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www.pringturner.com Pring Turner Capital Group

Inflation Barometer is at 100%.

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Key Points: Secular Trend Bonds/Commodities

Bonds Have Been in a Secular Bull Market for Almost 30 years

Bond Owners Beware: Secular Trend is at a Critical Juncture

Cyclically Bonds are Vulnerable to Interest Rate and Inflation risks

Small Rise in Interest Rates can Lead to Significant Losses in Bonds

Commodities in Secular Uptrend Adds to Risk in Bonds

Opportunities in Inflation Sensitive Securities

Tactics to Protect and Grow Wealth

Class Secular

Cyclical

Tactics

Stocks Bear Bull

Use Business Cycle to Tactically Allocate Assets

Inflation Themes are in Secular BullResourced Based, Foreign-Emerging

MarketsQuality with International ExposureIncome Producers

Bonds Bear?

Bear

Review and Reconsider RisksLower Bond AllocationReduce Bond MaturitiesSet up Short-term Bond LadderHedge Bonds with Inflation Sensitive Securities

Inflation

Sensitive

Assets

Bull Bull

Favor Natural Resource Companies“Chindia” Theme, Global Resource DemandPrecious Metal ExposureResource Based CountriesCanadian Royalty Trusts

March 2010

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Thanks for Listening…

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