Prof Santosh Kumar Director , SAARC Disaster Management Center

Afghanistan India Bhutan Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Maldives Sri Lanka

KATHMANDU MAPPED AS ZONE V HIGH SEISMIC RISK

CAN WE ENSURE THEIR SAFETY ???????

The profile

• It is estimated that the total urban population of South Asia will increase from 449 million in 2007 to 913 million in 2025 and 1.32 billion in 2050.

• In absolute numbers such growth will be most pronounced in large countries like India, Pakistan and Bangladesh.

• The relative rate of urban growth is expected to be higher in the smaller countries like Bhutan, Afghanistan and Maldives.

Profile contd…

• 65 cities in South Asia today have a population of more than 1 million each,

• of which 5 are 10 million plus cities, with another 4 cities closely following.

• Mumbai, Delhi, Kolkata and Karachi are expected to reach the status of ‘20 million cities’ in a few years.

• No other region of the world has concentration of so many mega cities as in South Asia today.

Profile ….

• The scale of urbanization has far outpaced the provision of infrastructure facilities.

• Almost all the cities and towns of South Asia are facing serious shortages of power,water, sewerage, developed land, housing, transportation, communication and other facilities.

The Reality Check

Vulnerability

• The increases in land prices have virtually left the urban poor with no alternative except to seek informal solution to their housing problems, leading to the settlement in high risk areas- “SLUMS”

• About one third of the urban dwellers are living below poverty line under sub human conditions - without access to basic services like drinking water, sanitation, medical care and public hygiene.

•

vulnerability

• Compounding the problems of urban growth are the natural hazards of floods, earthquakes, cyclones, landslides etc, and layers of physical, social and economic vulnerabilities that are exposing the people of many South Asian cities to increasing risks of disasters.

• Climate change and its impact on rainfall, water and atmosphere is further dragging the cities into new vortex of risk

Economy

Figure: share of different sector on South Asian economy and their growth rate Source: ADB 2010

Potential Risks From Different Hazards

Source: IPCC AR4 and AR5 & South Asia Disaster Reports

Impacts Due to Natural Disaster in SAARC Countries (1990-2008)

Source: South Asia Disaster Reports, SDMC

Incidence of natural disaster

Disaster Preparedness level

Sharing risk with partners

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

HFA1

HFA2

HFA3

HFA4

HFA5

152

200

264 235

123

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

HFA coverage of regional initiatives in South Asia

HFA 1

HFA 2

HFA 3

HFA 4

HFA 5

HFA Priority for action 1: Ensure that

disaster risk reduction is a national and a local priority with a strong institutional basis for implementation

Priority for action 2: Identify,

assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning

Priority for action 3: Use

knowledge, innovation and education to build a culture of safety and resilience at all levels

Priority for action 4: Reduce the

underlying risk factors

Priority for action 5: Strengthen

disaster preparedness for effective response at all levels

Actions for the future

• Risks that must be prevented at any cost

• ™ Risks that may be mitigated to reduce the impact of disasters

• ™ Risks that may be transferred to insurance or other mechanisms

• ™ Risks that can neither be prevented nor mitigated nor transferred and have to be accepted

Actions needed

• Development of a sound city-level information and data system on hazards and vulnerabilities

• quantification of total Risks, preparation of cost-benefit analysis of Prevention and Mitigation,

• And helps in determining the Accepted Risks of cities, which may form the basis of Disaster Preparedness Plansfor cities

Thank You

Afghanistan India Bhutan Bangladesh Pakistan Nepal Maldives Sri Lanka