PROSPECTS AND CHALLENGES FOR A SUCCESSFUL 2010 CENSUS

Barbara Everitt BryantLisa Neidert

December 10, 2009

Overview

Scope of the Census

Challenges for the 2010 Census

Good News for the Census Bureau

The Goods: Looking at Data

Differences between a large social survey and the Decennial Census

Size and Scope Planning cycle and procedures locked in 535 powerful micromanagers (Congress)

Questionnaire designers who never think it is too late to make changes (Vitter/Bennett and citizen question)

See the census as a jobs program (Schumer, et.al. who want NRFU jobs to go to long-term

unemployed)

What next????

Challenges for the 2010 Census

Politics: Winners and Losers

Economy

Hard to Count populations

Media Environment

Politics of the Census: Winners and Losers

Year Issue1789 Census is in the Constitution. Initially had checks and

balances. Population used for representation and taxation.

1860 Slave states vs Free States

1870 14th amendment – former slaves now counted as full persons

1911 House size is fixed at 435 – zero sum game now. One state’s gain is another state’s loss.

1913 16th amendment – Income tax. Taxes are no longer collected in proportion to population size.

1920 Rural vs Urban. Only census to never be used for re-apportionment.

1929 Permanent Apportionment Act. Established a process to make sure apportionment would always take place

Politics of the Census:Winners and LosersYear Issue

1941 Congress permanently adopted “Method of Equal Proportions” to determine apportionment.

1968 Federal Housing Act includes revenue sharing to local governments. Population counts in census are critical.

1980+ 1) Undercount; 2) Which populations should be included (non-citizens, overseas population); 3) Where to count prisoners

1990 Statistical adjustment for undercount

2000 Statistical adjustment for non-response; Supreme Court ruled against this in June 1999.

Current Citizenship issue again; Size of the House – The per capita district size ranges from 495,304 (WY) to 905,316 (MT).

Future ????????????????

House Size by Region: 1900 – 2000: A Power Shift to the South and West

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

1900 1950 2000

Northeast /MidwestSouth / West

Winners and Losers: 1900 – 2000Selected States

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

CA

TX

FL

MO

PA

NY

Number of House Seats

190019502000

Recent/Future Shifts in Power

1990 2000 2010**

Northeast -7 -5 -4

Midwest -8 -5 -7

South +7 +5 +8

West +8 +5 +3

2010 Projections

Projections based on December 2008 data Will update shortly Growth assumption

Winners (+1) FL, GA, NV, OR, SC, UT (+2) AZ (+4) TX

Losers (-1) IL, IA, LA, MA, MI, MN, MO, NJ, NY, PA (-2) OH

Census Challenges: Economy

Housing Vacancies/Foreclosures Non-response follow up (NRFU) to empty

houses increases costs Doubled-up families

Everyone needs to understand residence rules Outreach

States participation will be low due to financial constraints Washtenaw county [no resources for this]

Hard to Count: Immigrants – mostly Hispanics

Rapid growth of undocumented population from 1990 – 2006 4% of population; 5.4% of labor force 76% Hispanic; 11% Asian

Varies by state 1990 (42% in CA); 2008 (22% in CA)

Distribution of Undocumented Population[from Pew Hispanic]

Hard to Count - Hispanics

Mistrust/fear and language Multi-lingual questionnaires and help centers Won’t solve fear/mistrust issue

Hispanic minister calling for boycott to jumpstart immigration reform Boycott would help Michigan and other low-

Hispanic states in re-apportionment Would not be helpful for allocation of federal

funds

Media Environment

Big Media is fading in influence How to reach folks who only use alternative

media (or none)? Potential for mis-information in blogosphere Blogs

http://blogs.census.gov/2010census/ http://censusprojectblog.org/

Good News for Census 2010

Short Form Census Long-form questions are part of the American

Community Survey (ACS) This is Leslie Kish’s rolling census

Technology

Outreach

Good News: Short-Form

10 questions 10 minutes

No long-form negativity in the news Why are they asking this?

Quotes George Bush (the younger) Michelle Bachman from England

Good News: Technology

Second Mailing 1990: Not even on Census Bureau radar

First question Barbara Bryant asked 2000: Technology not quite there

Real-time return data Can deploy advertising/people to problem areas

Good News: Outreach

Advertising Campaign Second census to have a real advertising budget Look for an ad in the Super Bowl

Hard to Count (HTC) campaign What do you think predicts HTC? Who are the HTC in Ann Arbor? ISR/UM project to increase mail response

Not “one size fits all” effort Outreach specialists decide what works best for

their turf

Aging in Place

Race: The Past

Race Hispanic

1950 1970 1990 2008

White 87.7 84.3 76.4 65.9

Black 10.0 11.0 11.9 12.2

Asian 0.2 0.7 2.8 4.5

Hispanic 2.2 3.9 8.9 15.5

Majority/Minority States: 2008

Total population HI, NM, CA, TX Different combinations across states

School age population (<18) HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MS, GA

Pre-kindergarten (0-5) HI, NM, CA, TX, AZ, NV, FL, MD, GA, DE, NY

Marriage and Family Formation

Measure 1950 1970 1990 2008

Median age at marriage (women)

20.3 20.8 23.9 26.0

Never married, 15+ (women)

18.0 20.5 23.1 28.1

% currently divorced (women)

2.5 4.0 9.4 11.9

Age at first birth 22.5 21.4 24.2 25.0

% non-marital births 4.0 10.7 28.0 40.0

One person households 20.2 22.8 22.1 28.9

Husband/wife families 77.0 69.0 55.7 49.2

Labor Force Participation