Post on 10-Jan-2020
transcript
Prospects of CEFTA
Improving Cooperation in SEEKick-off MeetingSarajevo, 16 March 2012
Renata VitezDirector
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Modern Regional Free Trade Agreement ...
• … harmonising trade rules across the region and incorporating modern trade related provisions;
• implying also … the Parties “aim … to accede to the EU and that CEFTA is a proven route to accession … (Preamble) … because intra-regional free trade is part of pre-accession process to EU (SAAs).
The modernised CEFTA is the first internationally binding Treaty signed by the SEE countries themselves; successful implementation is vital both
economically and politically.
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Built on ....
EUChapter V
Operating Rules
Competition Rules
CEFTAChapter I, II, II, IV
Liberalisation of Trade in Goods
WTO
Chapter VI
New Trade Issues: Services, Investment, Government Procurement, Intellectual Property
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Joint Committee
Subcommittee on Agriculture and
SPS
Subcommittee on Customs and RO
Subcommittee on NTBs and TBT
Working Group on TBT
Working Group on Trade in
Services
Secretariat
Implemented through a well developed structure ...
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
The period 2009 – 2011 was marked by ...
• Very active Chairs in Office and good coordination among the Article 44 Contact Points and with the Secretariat resulting in:• Meeting all deadlines and commitments from the Agreement• Achieving positive results in all key areas of the Agreement
(liberalisation of trade, diagonal cumulation, elimination of NTBs, competition, opening of public procurement markets, increasing transparency etc.)
• Decision making backed up by high quality analysis and recommendations of renowned international organisations e.g. OECD and World Bank
• Introducing of timely annual and multi-annual programming at all levels• Expanding the implementation structure (two new working groups)• Increasing visibility by introduction of new promotional/transparency
tools i.e. the CEFTA Week and the CEFTA Trade Portal
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Recovery after fall in 2009
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Evolution of Exports (2006=100)
CEFTA 2006 Parties EU27 World
Source: OECD
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Intra-CEFTA exports account for about 30% of total CEFTA exports.
28.3%30.7%
32.2%
31.7% 29.2%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Bill
ion
s U
SD
Intra-CEFTA and CEFTA-EU exports
Intra-CEFTA Exports CEFTA Exports to the EU
Source: OECD
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
The share of agricultural exports is around 45% and around 20% for non-agricultural exports.
-
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2009 2010 20113Q
Intra-CEFTA Share in Total Exports (%)
Total Agri Non-Agri Average
Source: CEFTA Parties
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Dependence on Intra-CEFTA trade is especially high for agricultural products.
Intra-CEFTA trade in agricultural products as % of total trade (3Q2011)
Intra-CEFTA trade in non-agricultural products as % of total trade (3Q2011)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Exports Imports
AL BA HR MK MD ME RS KOS* Average
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Exports Imports
AL BA HR MK MD ME RS KOS* Average
Source: CEFTA Parties
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Transposition of EU technical regulations
Party Totally / Partially
implemented
Draft stage No transposition of EU
sectoral legislation
Level awarded
Albania 122 16 32 3
BiH 0 0 0 1
Croatia 97 0 12 3/4
Macedonia 53 0 13 3
Moldova 79 6 102 2/3
Montenegro 2 79 83 2/3
Serbia 30 11 81 3
Kosovo (UNSCR
1244/99)
0 3 11 1/2
Figures refer to 193 product groupingsSource: CEN
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Manufacturing in CEFTA – Turnover: 42.5 bn EUR – Employment: 1.07 m
Shares of CEFTA Parties:(by turnover)
Albania 1.2 bnBIH 4.2 bnCroatia 14.0 bnUNMIK/Kosovo 0.6 bnfYR Macedonia 3.6 bnMoldova 1.5 bnMontenegro 0.6 bnSerbia 16.8 bn
3%
10%
33%
1%
8%4%
1%
39%
Albania
BIH
Croatia
UNMIK/Kosovo
fYR Macedonia
Moldova
Montenegro
Serbia
Approx. 70% of the manufacturing activity in CEFTA is concentrated in Serbia and Croatia
Source: OECD
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Manufacturing activity is heavily concentrated in low and medium low tech industries.
Low Tech Industries (45%)
Medium Low Tech Industries (34%)
Medium High Tech Industries (18%)
ICTIndustries (3%)
Food and Beverages Tobacco Products
Textiles Wearing Apparel Leather Products Wood Products Paper Products
Publishing and Printing Furniture and Other
Manufacturing
Petroleum Products Rubber and Plastic
Products Non-metallic Mineral
Products Basic Metals
Fabricated Metal Products
Chemical Products Machinery and
Equipment Electrical Machinery
Motor Vehicles Other Transport
Equipment
Office machinery and computers
Radio, Television and Communication
ProductsMedical, Precision and
Optical products
Source: OECD
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Services account for lion’s share of economies...
• Trade, construction, real estate and transport are most important
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100Services as % of GDP
Source: World Bank
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
… with big potential to increase Intra-CEFTA trade in services.
Source: World Bank
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Challenges for the years to come
• The implementation of CEFTA is now involving the domains for which• Objectives of liberalisation are not explicitly set up by the Agreement. • Ministries responsible for Trade might not always have a direct
mandate over these domains, thus requiring involvement of other governmental bodies (e.g. elimination of NTBs, trade facilitation, liberalisation of trade in services, etc.).
• These areas require technically complex discussions, as well as coordinated efforts of both policy making Ministries and law enforcement authorities at the same time.
• As a consequence, the projects and initiatives to support the implementation are also getting technically demanding and increasingly complex.
• Trade policy alone is not sufficient to optimise the impact of regional trade liberalisation and European integration.
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Objectives
CEFTA 2008 - 2011
• All commitments and deadlines met• Liberalisation of trade in goods • Diagonal cumulation• Opening of PP Market• TBT notification• State Aid notification• IPR review• Non-discrimination in Investment• CEFTA Trade Portal
CEFTA 2012 - 2015
• Strategic partnerships deepened• Investment• Supply chains• Transportation channels
• Focus in CEFTA implementation• Liberalisation of trade in services• Elimination of NTBs• Trade Facilitation• Transparency
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Assumptions
• Harmonisation efforts within CEFTA are aligned with the common objective to join the EU
• All decisions are promoting and not in anyway jeopardising the accession process of respective Parties
• No CEFTA specific standards or practice are introduced
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
“CEFTA Approach”
• Analyse trade flows• Assess existing and potential barriers to trade• Articulate respective Parties interest• Identify potential area of multilateral/plurilateral interest• Cross-check with the respective EU accession priorities/plans • Agree on the scope of CEFTA negotiations
CEFTA SECRETARIAT
Key Success Factors
• Strategic view– understanding strategic importance of trade and strengthening regional cooperation/partnerships• by the Parties in the context of their economic development, regional
cooperation and accession to the EU• by the donors in the context of the impact of trade on promoting economic
development in the Region • Coordination – efficient coordination required
• among the Parties in the negotiations• within respective Parties administrations to develop Parties’ positions• between the Parties and the Secretariat to execute action• between the Parties, the Secretariat and international partners to seek for
synergies and prevent overlapping of efforts• Sustainability – ensuring sustainability of the process as a prerequisite to success
• discipline of all actors in programming and implementation of priorities• regular participation and appropriate representation in official meetings• active involvement in agreed activities• financial discipline
THANK YOU.